IT Framework in Hungary Pierre L. Siklos WLU & Viessmann Research Centre Waterloo ON CANADA.

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Presentation transcript:

IT Framework in Hungary Pierre L. Siklos WLU & Viessmann Research Centre Waterloo ON CANADA

Institutional requirements Instrument independence Effective monetary policy instrument Accountability Disclosure A floating exchange rate Joint responsibility Harmony with fiscal policy Public support Well developed financial system IT Desiderata: part I

IT Desiderata: Part II Economic requirements Choice of an appropriate price index Selection of a width and horizon, and symmetry for the inflation target Adequate knowledge of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy Provision of inflation forecasts Adequate measurement and timely arrival of economic information

How Gradual? Table 1 Inflation targets Target ratesReference periodDate adopted 7% ±1 percentage pointDecember 2001June % ±1 percentage pointDecember 2002June % ±1 percentage pointDecember 2003December % ±1 percentage pointDecember 2004October % ±1 percentage pointDecember 2005October % ±1 percentage pointDecember 2006November % in 2007

IT in Hungary: Current State of Play Institutional conditions: are they met? Status (ca. 2002)Status (ca. 2006) Instrument independence? YES YES Effective policy instrument? YES YES Accountability? YESYES Adequate disclosure? YES YES Exchange rate regime? YES ? Joint responsibility for YES ? monetary policy? Fiscal-monetary harmony? YES (in principle)?

IT in Hungary: Current State of Play Price index for targeting? CPI inflation According to the findings of research carried by MNB staff, the optimal long-term level of inflation falls into the 2.3%–3.2% target range Width, horizon, symmetry of target bands? ±1% around a specified mid-point of target band Sufficient knowledge about transmission mechanism? Dependent on choice of exchange rate regime Role of inflation forecast? Distribution of risks around some central tendency Measurement, timeliness issues? Largely met

Inflation

Exchange Rate

Maastricht on Their Minds

Inflation Forecast Record ForecastTest StatisticSampleNo. of Observations Reuters-Inflation IT * (0.32) Consensus Inflation IT * (0.31) Consensus Year Ahead Inflation IT * (0.31) Forecast Combination Inflation IT * (0.35) GDP growth Consensus IT 8.02** (1.94) GDP growth Year Ahead IT (1.96)

Real Time Problems I

Real Time Problems II