Challenge the Estimate Presented by Mort Anvari Steve Loftus 23 June 05

2  Professional Adversarial Relationship  Determine the Cost  Challenge the Schedule  Conduct Risk Analysis The Cost Review Board History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of men

3 Agenda  Historical Program Growth  Program Schedule  Software Schedule & Productivity  Question the Data Sources Systems  Sources of Data

4 Total CG by Commodity 142 Systems 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Aircraft 42C4I 24Missile 34Ship 19Space 9Ground Combat 14 Percent Cost Growth

5 RDT&E CG by Commodity

6 Procurement CG by Commodity 138 Systems 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aircraft 42C4I 21Missile 34Ship 19Space 9Ground Combat 13 Percent Cost Growth

7 Total CG by Subcommodity

8 Program Schedule

9 The Program Schedule  Backwards Planning FY04FY05FY06FY08FY09FY10FY11 IOC IOTE LRIP MSC Dev Testing HW/SW Dev Full Rate Production MSB

10 Historical Missile Development Effort Durations SOURCE: SAR and JSOW POE

11 Missile Development Effort Durations And Joint Common Missile Estimates So, it can be done in 42 months?

12 Software Development Software estimating parameters  Software Lines of Code (KSLOC)  Effort for Reuse  Effort for Modified  Growth  Productivity (KSLOC per Staff Month)  Labor Rate  Software to Hardware Integration Used to calculate Effective Lines of Code (ESLOC)

13 Software Estimating Rules of Thumb Growth: 40% Reuse Effort: 5% to 30% Modified Effort: 30% – 70% COTS: 5% to 30% Software to Hardware integration: 30% Software Maintenance: 60% to 70% of SW Total Life Cycle Estimate

14 Size Growth

15 Application DomainNumber Projects Size Range (KSLOC) Avg Productivity (SLOC/SM) Range (SLOC/SM) Example Applications Automation5525 to to 440Factory automation Command & Control4335 to 4, to 330Command centers Data Processing3620 to to 500Business systems Environment/Tools7515 to 1, to 610CASE tools, compilers, etc Military-Airborne3820 to 1, to 250Embedded sensors Military-Ground5225 to 2, to 300Combat information center Military-Missile1422 to to 165Guidance, Nav & Control Sys Military-Spaceborne1815 to to 175Attitude control systems Scientific3328 to to 360Seismic processing systems Telecommunications4815 to 1, to 440Digital switches and PABX Trainer/Simulations24200 to to 780Virtual reality simulators Web6410 to to 975Client/server sites SW Productivity (SLOC/SM) by Application Domains Based on 500 projects from a database of 1,500 (Reifer Consultants, Inc) projects. Scope extends from SW requirements review to SW/SW Integration Does not include SW/HW Integration, Quality Assurance, System, or Operational Test, & Beta Test Personnel Different Languages were used (ie Web projects employed Java & Visual C while military projects used Ada & C/C++

16 Software Estimate Given: Labor rate - $145 per hour (fully burdened with fee) 152 hours per staff month Aviation Program Staff Months: 3543 ( / 105) Staff Month Labor Rate: $22,040 ($145 * 152) SW Development: $78M (3543 * $22,040) SW to HW Integration: $23M ($78M * 30%) Total SW Development: $101M ($78M + $23M) SW Maintenance: $168M ($101M/.6) Total SW Life Cycle Cost Estimate: $269M ($101M + $168M)

17 Missile/Seeker Software FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY AH-64D IOC MS B MS C FRP RAH-66 IOC w/JCM PDRCDR F/A-18E/F EOC AH-1Z EOC Phase 1 CA PPT (System Qual) EDT MH-60 R EOC Phase 2INCREMENT 1 DRR Test Support IPR FRP CA Adv Proc LRIP 1 LRIP 2 November, 2003 IOT&E LUT DT DT SHOTS SW Dev before DT ($101M) SW Dev before DT ($74M) Test-Analyze-Fix ($23M) CCA $101M POE $97M

18 Missile Qualification Comparison Missile Test Shots  How does program compare to analogous programs?

19 Comparison of Estimated Resource Requirements

20 Sources of Data

21 Army Tools for Total Ownership Cost Estimating Army Tools for Total Ownership Cost Estimating Life Cycle Cost Management Tools

22 Automated Cost Estimator (ACE) Automated Cost Estimator (Ace)—is a Model-building Tool. Part Spreadsheet, Part Database, It Incorporates Enough Structure to Eliminate Most of the Automation Tasks You Would Have to Perform If You Used a Spreadsheet, Yet It’s Flexible Enough to Perform Nearly Any Kind of Analysis. The Analyst’s Productivity Is Increased Through Built-in Inflation, Learning, Time Phasing, Documentation, Sensitivity/what-if, and Other Analysis Capabilities.

23 Automated Cost Data Base (ACDB) ACDB Is ACEIT’s Automated Cost Database. Just As ACE Is a Model- building Tool, ACDB Is a Database- Building Tool. It Contains Powerful Database Entry and Administration Tools to Enable Any Site/office to Create Its Own Tailored Database. When You Populate It, ACDB Lets You Search and Retrieve Cost, Schedule, Technical, and Programmatic Data.

24 Operating Support (O&S) Costing Operating & Support Management Information System (OSMIS) Force Cost Model(s) Installation Cost (Base Operations / Real Property Maintenance)

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26 Force Costing / Models FORCES: Unit Operations & Support Force Costing / Models FORCES: Unit Operations & Support Updated Annually Provides Input to 5 Defense Models Supports 9 Separate Study Groups Avg 25 Major Estimates Per Year

27 OSMIS Database OSMIS Operating & Support Management Information System Parts (NSN Level) & Fuel Ammunition Intermediate Maintenance Depot Maintenance Activity Data (miles/Hours) Year of Manufacture

28 Summary  Challenge the schedule through use of historical programs  Software costing and metrics identifies schedule risk Costs Analysis: It’s more than just Cost