Amazing Transformation of Telecoms in India (Apply, Apply – No Reply To Haath haath mein telephone Gaon gaon mein Internet) By Dr T.H.Chowdary * Director, Center for Telecom Management & Studies * Chairman, Pragna Bharati (Intellect India), AP * Former Information Technology Adviser, Government of A.P Chairman & Managing Director Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd., Bombay T: +91 (40) / (O) F: +91 (40) (O)‏ Helapuri Fort Group, Hyd: 12 Nov 2010 thc_ctms1S452_Nov2010

Spectacular Growth Since NTP Telephone80K400mln750m PTs420>4m Waiters2x the HavesNo waiting Waiting time3 to 5 yearsUpto 10YOn demand * Highest Annual Growth 120 mpa * World’s 2 nd largest system * Highest Growth Rate in the world thc_ctmsS452_Nov20102

3 Wait & Wait..... Telephonic address: “WAIT LIST” Apply for the grandson Consult: Sooth sayer when the Trunk Call comes Post - It can't be slower ; Don't “telegram” thc_ctms

S452_Nov20104 Waiting Hataao! Becomes: Waiters Hatao (like garibi/garibinko hatao!)‏ Renew by priced /prescribed forms (Rs. 10/-) 50% disappeared ‏ Re-renew by putting a deposit of Rs.1000/- 50% disappeared Own Your Telephone (OYT) First Rs. 3000; revised to Rs.8000/-) 25% disappeared‏ Tatkal Rs.40,000 deposit thc_ctms

S452_Nov20105 Wrong Numbers 1/2 Dead Telephones Dead phones & Burglary in Mumbai “That is why I say, the burglar must be from out of town. He cut the telephone thinking it works” Inflated Bills “Pay First: Complain later - “Fiat car for sale to pay telephone bills”‏ “Look! IT may be raining outside... “No sir! There are only clouds!” “If it is wrong number why are you answering?” thc_ctms

S452_Nov20106 Wrong Numbers 2/2 Unsure in any Need. (Unsafe At Any Speed: Ralph Nader about US Cars) “Lots of phones on the table. This for incoming calls That one for outgoing This for wrong number That farther one for cross talk That beyond for music And that last one – dead for 3 months Cables dead; Tent over a trench,for months In order to not inconvenience people frequently, we have decided to leave it like that permanently” thc_ctms

S452_Nov20107 Rajya Sabha Question M.P: What steps are government taking to save people from wrong numbers, cross connections, dead phones, inflated bills, delayed trunk calls, call drops, very old telephone directories? Minister: C.M.Stephen “There is no compulsion to have a telephone. One is at full liberty to surrender” thc_ctms

S452_Nov20108 Monopoly's ills 1/2 Unbridled because it was by a government department Socialism meant “telephone is for rich man, so fewer the better; the worse it works, less the profiteering so, little investment & bad maintenance Raise prices to generate capital funds 50% of billed amount not for service Plan to generate jobs, not for work thc_ctms

S452_Nov20109 Monopoly's ills 2/2 One employee for 12 telephones in the 1980s in DOT (Now 1 for about 300 in BSNL; 1 for 10,000 in P-Telcos)‏ No new services like mobile phones, , FAX; radio-paging, Internet, Video conferencing - all these are for the rich; inadmissible in Nehruvian Socialism thc_ctms

S452_Nov PCI A X TSP Time (a) Affordability A PCI/ Tele-Service Price - PCI: Per Capita Income - TSP: Telephone Service Price - A: Affordability Bring down price to increase affordability thc_ctms

Affordability of Telephone Revenue /Line at current exchange parity $125$250$125 Rev. as % of PCI thc_ctmsS452_Nov Affordability PCI Tel. Svce.Price

S452_Nov Cost of an year's telephone service vs: PC GDP Affordability increasing rapidly. The annual cost for a basket of services was 2.5 times PCI in 1951; equal to PCI in 1994 and now 0.00 in 2010! So “Haath mein telephone: Carpenters, Vegetable Vendors, Milkmen, Mason, Plumber, Driver, Mazdoor, Electrician, Beggars ( in Tirumala, Shirdi..) thc_ctms

Growth of Phones in India ($ mlns) Year A B YearDec '03Dec-'04April-'05March'06Sept' A mln B thc_ctmsS452_Nov A: Fixed line telephones including WLL ( PSU+Pvt ) B: Cellular mobile phones ( GSM+CDMA)

S452_Nov Teledensity India Metros (4 cities) Other Urban ( about 6000 towns) Rural 65%>100% to 150% 70%30% thc_ctms

S452_Nov Sale of Cell Phones PCs sold/year: 7 mln PCs in use : 25 mln There are 60,000 retailers of cell phones A cell phone is changed on eh average in 9 months! Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, LG are the leading vendors thc_ctms

THC_CTMSS376_Feb'0816 Mobile Subscribers Prepaid: 90% Churn: 15% ARPU/month Year $

Indian Software Industry Exports US$ Million1,1241,7552,7003,9005,7008, US$ Million10,00012,00016,00021,00038,00048 bln54 bln thc_ctmsS452_Nov201017

Internet & B.B 160 ISPs 80 mln Internet users 10 mln Broad-band subscribers 65% of 750 mln cell phone users access Interent thc_ctmsS452_Nov201018

S452_Nov Telecom Demonopolisation (1/2) 1984-'89: Rajiv Gandhi ended State monopoly on equipment production & launched C-DOT 1991: P V Narasimha Rao began ending State monopoly on services. (socialism=state capitalism)‏ 1994: National Telecom Policy ended case by (suit) case licenses 1997: Statutory Telecom Regulator, TRAI May-Aug 1998: BJP-led NDA's IT &SW; Internet policies thc_ctms

S452_Nov Telecom Demonopolisation (2/2) NTP 1999 Regulatory reform TRAI, TDSAT NTP '99 saved dying P-Telcos by migrating them to revenue share & not upfront crippling licence fee payment unrelated to network & revenues Level-playing field by corporatising DOT's services into BSNL in Y 2000 and end to STD/ISD monopoly. Private capital, Indian & foreign (upto 74%) thc_ctms

S452_Nov Beneficences Printing Roadways;Railways; Electricity; Automobile; Telegraph; Radio/TV; Computer Machines extended man's physical power ICTs & telephones are extending mind/knowledge power Machines for work Men to think, divine & design Numbers replace names Convergence/ multi functional cell phone Telecoms become electronic-photonic infrastructure for storage and transport and exchange of electronified information. thc_ctms

S452_Nov Numbers exceed names! (population)‏ Nordic countries, Italy, UK, France Japan, Korea Delhi, Mumbai.... Some persons have cellphones from different companies Delhi, Mumbai, Bangaluru, Chennai,... are exceeding 100% teledensity. Calcutta & Hyderabad TD is upto 150% thc_ctms

S452_Nov Investments Poured in (1/2) P-Telcos put in Rs. 200,000 cr BSNL/MTNL share reduced to 16%(8% in mobiles) Annual investment in the Sector > Rs. 40,000 cr Annual revenues Rs. 200,000 cr More than Rlys & Electricity Less than only the oil & Gas Sector Over 40 P-Telcos in fierce competition(8 to 13 in a State) Many more P-telcos got 3G licenses WiMaX & 3G licenses fetched Rs. 1,10,000 cr for spectrum alone While 4G is already being deployed in Japan, USA, E.U thc_ctms

S452_Nov Investments Poured in (2/2) Telecoms transformed into globally connected electronic- photonic highways system for information enabling Bharat as IT, SW & ITES supplier to the world Telecoms is the most lucrative portfolio for Ministers Very scandalous licencing & PSU purchases. DOT coveted by Regional, “Secular” parties ( Rlys, Highways, Seaports, Mines, Fertilisers too. 55 persons held the portfolio since Independence ( i/c P.M, Vajpayee)& I K Gujral Those remembered for distinction are: Rafi Ahmed Kidwai, Jagjiwan Ram, C.M.Stephen, Sukh Ram, Mahajan. Arun Shourie & Sushma Swaraj thc_ctms

S452_Nov Unintended Consequence Telecom Equipment Production nearly dead R&D neglected India imports “know-how” not only from Europe/Korea/Japan but also China Indian create IP: but ownership by foreigners. thc_ctms

S452_Nov Mis-use/ Misbehaviour Cell phone talk in public places- roads,waiting rooms; in lifts; buses; trains; in queues; walking & talking Addiction, fiddling; profane, SMS-ing – Rs.18 cr/day Vulgar ring sounds, ring backs So small, tantalisingly “thievable” Annoyance & public nuisance increasing Love-zihad Seeing & reading screens (TV, PC, cell phone) no reading & writing & thinking. thc_ctms

S452_Nov What are the services not provided No Telephone (Directory) Services BSNL's by BSNL from BSNL numbers only. No P-Telco publishes whom to approach for help / complaint / grievance  Executive's Name  Tel No / Mobile No / BSNL Directories used to publish this information i/c hierarchy P-Telcos don't hold Telephone Adalats ( i.e like BSNL does) thc_ctms

S452_Nov What is yet to be realised Internet to every village Internet to every Educational Institution & class room Broad-band to every town/village Total territorial coverage Intellectual property creation (R&D); Manufacturing (China, Korea recently; Japan earlier)‏ India can.eg: Indian cos. Have within the last 4 years captured 20% cellphone handset market! A Mission like C-DOT to make India sleep reliant in ICTs. Set up a “Bell-Labs” (formerly of AT&T) ICT Universities thc_ctms

S452_Nov Dhanyawad: Thank You thc_ctms