ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER) Applied Climate Change Conference May 23-24, 2013 Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate Don C. MacIver Marianne Karsh

Climate Change is a global-local issue Safety/Health Competitiveness Adaptation to: Changing markets Changing regulations Changing technologies Adaptation to: Changing landscapes Changing species/seeds Changing ecosystems Adaptation to: Changing climate Changing hazards Changing behaviour Sustainable Communities Biodiversity

UN/ISDR Resilient Cities Campaign Resilient Communities National Platform

POINT 1: The Atmosphere is unforgiving

POINT 2: The Climate is already Changing Annual Temps: Warmed Mean Temps ~ 2.7  C Min Temps most ~4.1  C Annual Precip: Slight Increase? How has the Climate Been Changing in the Area? Since late 1800s

Normal Temp = Normal Temp = Normal Temp = 8.4 Adapting to the Changing Climate Toronto Pearson Airport Climate Change Ensemble Not Sign. Difference from Decade

Celebrity Storms: Visible impacts with extremes… Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m 3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris The Great Ice Storm (1998), 1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days Waves and storms floods forest fires droughts, heat spells

Page 8 Threats to Biodiversity in Canada Land-Use Change Climate Change Insects/Disease/Fire

POINT 3: Landscapes are also changing Loss of Biodiversity

Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3 Changes relative to Baseline Climate Annual Mean Temps Warming 2.6 – 4.0  C Annual Mean Precip Increasing 6-15% POINT 4: The Climate will be Changing

Biodiversity Monitoring Themes Monitoring based on species at risk Monitoring based on population trends Monitoring based on status and trends in habitat Monitoring based on threats to biodiversity There are four general themes under which most forest biodiversity monitoring activities fall:

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Climate and Forest Biodiversity Using Smithsonian Global Biodiversity Observation Network “Canada can ill-afford the loss of one species”

Planned Adaptation: Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020 Marianne Karsh and Don MacIver References Butt, S. and A. Fenech Pre-European Settlement Landcover Mapping of Southern Ontario. Unpublished report, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 35 pp. Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.) Climate Change, Biodiversity and Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario. 346 pp. MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Toronto, Ontario. 184 pp. Pre-settlement Baseline Biodiversity Data (1792) National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) Climate Change Scenarios Conclusion Re-establishment of the sustainable biodiversity baseline under climate change by 2020 is illustrated by the Long Point curves, based on appropriate land-use regulation and the proactive planting of native and new species (i.e. planned adaptation). Using one climate change model, by itself, produced inflated results, compared to the ensemble of the top 7 out of 24 verified models. Climate Change Scenarios for GCM’s and RCM’s are available from and the climate- biodiversity examples at Figure 1. Pre-settlement Biodiversity Data southern Ontario in Figure 2. National Biodiversity Observing Sites (NBOS) and the Heat Unit by Family Biodiversity Model. Figure 3. Modeled warming in southern Ontario using an ensemble of climate change models. Figure 4. Historical rate of loss of native biodiversity and responses of biodiversity under climate change along with land-use regulation, insect/disease controls and planned adaptation. Habitat biodiversity levels in the pre-settlement period were significantly higher than today. The Smithsonian Institution network now numbers more than 500 sites worldwide with more than 100 sites across Canada, including more than 25 in southern Ontario. In Canada, heat is the primary driver of climate-triggered changes in habitat biodiversity. The heat unit by family biodiversity model is based on observational data and has helped understand (>85% explanation) and predict the effects of a changing climate. The Sustainable Biodiversity Baseline is defined as the level established at the time of the pre-settlement land surveys. Significant losses in native biodiversity result from little or no land-use regulatory controls and expansion of high-value agricultural crops as illustrated by the Essex curves, in which the wetlands have disappeared and only 5% of the original habitat remains today. Provided that land-use regulation, agricultural expansion and insects/diseases are controlled, the incremental warming of the climate system will create a more favourable environment for a recovery (planned adaptation) to pre-settlement levels in habitat biodiversity (native and new species) over the next hundred years.

Page 17 Toronto Biodiversity Potential

Climate Change Experimental Biodiversity Site Association for Canadian Educational Resources (ACER) and Arborvitae is monitoring impacts of warmer temperatures on biodiversity at the Humber Arboretum in NW Toronto Documenting response on 1 hectare biodiversity plot of native, new forest and herbaceous species Info will be used to develop new planting protocols, adaptive management practices under climate change

Page 19 Biological Threats to Biodiversity M.B. Karsh, A. Casselman, D.C. MacIver, S. Fung, and H. Auld

United Nations Publications Climate Change and Biodiversity

Page 21 Publications Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.) Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp. MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp. MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For Municipalities, Municipal World Publication MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1 Risk To Ontario Municipalities, Municipal World Publication

Thank you!