9/14/2015 Carbon Emissions and Climate Change A Study of Attitudes and their Relationship with Travel Behavior Prepared for: TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

2 Research Questions Do drivers know what vehicle carbon emissions are? What are driver’s opinions about a link between carbon emissions from vehicles and climate change? Are drivers likely to change travel behavior to reduce carbon emissions? Do drivers support policies such as using toll revenue to implement carbon emission reduction programs?

3 Context Source: Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007 (DOE/EIA-0573(2007)), 3 Dec Sources of US GHG Emissions, MMT CDE, by Sector, 2007 ~2% CAGR US Transport Sector, CO2 Emissions,

4 Context Source: Global Warming on the Road: The Climate Impact of America’s Automobiles Environmental Defense 2006

5 Policy  “To have the greatest chance to slow and perhaps even reverse the slide toward calamitous climate change, we need to mobilize the widest possible public support for effective actions. And to do this effectively, we need to understand the bases of public attitudes and behavior.” Source: PUBLIC ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: What Shapes Them and How to Influence Them, Martin Patchen, 2006

6 Attitude Towards Climate Change Belief is most strongly held by: Urban residents Younger people More educated people Source: A Deeper Partisan Divide Over Global Warming The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2008

7 Behavioral Attitude Towards Climate Change “There is consistent evidence that people’s willingness to take specific environmentally-helpful actions or support specific pro- environmental policies declines as the amount of sacrifice connected to the action or policy increases.” “A study of Americans also found that people were much more likely to support policies that had no clear costs to them personally.”  90 % believe the U.S. should reduce GHG emissions  77% support CO 2 regulations  54% support a 5% gas guzzler tax on vehicles < 25mpg  17% support a 60 cent/gallon gas tax to encourage people to drive less and reduce emissions. Source: PUBLIC ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE: What Shapes Them and How to Influence Them, Martin Patchen, 2006

8 Attitudinal Segmentation of the UK Populations ‘Believe but busy’ believe climate change is happening but feel that they are unable to act because they have other priorities ‘Contributors’ are prepared to take action because they believe that small actions by many people will have an impact on climate change. ‘Deniers’ are skeptical that human activity impacts climate change. May be motivated by cost and time saving arguments but not by environmental considerations. ‘Ineffectuals’, believe that climate change is happening but do not believe that their actions will make a difference. ‘Aspirationals’ are younger people, who are relatively well educated about climate change but who have lifestyle aspirations that deter them from taking actions that will reduce their carbon consumption. Source: Exploring public attitudes to climate change and travel choices: deliberative research (King et al, 2009)

9 Project Locations Chicago, IL July 2008 Norfolk, VA May 2009 Dothan, AL June 2008 Dallas, TX December 2008 Austin, TX May 2008 ProjectResponses Austin1852 Chicago1976 Dallas1619 Dothan430 Norfolk2340 Total8217

10 Survey Methodology  Computer-based stated preference surveys  Designed to estimate the values of travel time savings (VOTs) of potential users of road pricing projects  Multi-method sampling approach  In-person intercept at activity sites near the study corridor  Hand-out/mail-out postcard invitations  Employer s  Online sample providers

11 General Questionnaire Outline RP Trip Characteristics Stated Preference Debrief and Attitudes Demographics  Questions describing respondent’s recent trip in the corridor  E.g. purpose, time of day, origin, destination, etc.  Stated preference trade-off questions presenting various travel alternatives under different time and cost conditions  Toll attitude questions  Emissions attitude questions  Basic individual and household-level demographic information, such as gender, age, employment, household size, household vehicles, annual household income

12 Attitude Statements  Three toll attitude statements: 1. I will use a toll route if the tolls are reasonable and I save time. 2. I support using tolls to pay for highway improvements that relieve congestion. 3. I can generally afford to pay tolls.  Five climate/emissions attitude statements: 1. I understand what vehicle carbon emissions are. 2. Carbon emissions from my vehicle contribute to climate change. 3. I am willing to carpool or take public transit more frequently to reduce carbon emissions from my vehicle. 4. I am willing to pay higher tolls if they are used to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions. 5. I support using tolls to pay for public transportation.  Five point scale from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree”

13 Attitude Analysis  A few disclaimers:  Preliminary work  Stated preference samples are not necessarily population-proportional  Not all questions included in all surveys for various reasons  These are “add-on” questions to a stated preference survey Attitude StatementAustinChicagoDallasDothanNorfolkN I will use a toll route if the tolls are reasonable and I save time.XXXXX8217 I support using tolls to pay for highway improvements that relieve congestion. XXXXX8217 I can generally afford to pay tolls.X--XXX6241 I understand what vehicle carbon emissions are.XXX Carbon emissions from my vehicle contribute to climate change.XXXXX8217 I am willing to carpool or take public transit more frequently to reduce carbon emissions from my vehicle. XXXXX8217 I am willing to pay higher tolls if they are used to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions. XXXX I support using tolls to pay for public transportation.XXX--X7787

14 Overall Attitudes I will use a toll route if the tolls are reasonable and I save time. I support using tolls to pay for highway improvements that relieve congestion. I can generally afford to pay tolls. I understand what vehicle carbon emissions are. Carbon emissions from my vehicle contribute to climate change. I am willing to carpool or take public transit more frequently to reduce carbon emissions from my vehicle. I am willing to pay higher tolls if they are used to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions. I support using tolls to pay for public transportation. Toll Attitudes Emission Attitudes

15 Toll Attitudes  Higher toll acceptance in Chicago and Dothan  Lower toll acceptance in Norfolk Household Income  Household income is strongly associated with toll attitudes Household Income Survey Location Percent Agree

16 Toll Attitudes  Higher toll acceptance  Older  Employed full-time or retired  Less toll acceptance among students and unemployed  No significant differences found between other demographic variables, including  Household size  Household vehicles  Gender Respondent Age Employment Status

17 Emission Attitudes: Understanding Emissions I understand what vehicle carbon emissions are. Household Income Age Increases slightly with income Lowest age category least likely to understand  Very little variation across other demographic variables.  Essentially all respondents reported having an understanding of vehicle carbon emissions Percent Agree

18 Emission Attitudes: Contribute to Climate Change Carbon emissions from my vehicle contribute to climate change. Age Gender Household Vehicles Employment Status Decreases as age increases; similar to Pew study findings Students more likely to agree Women more likely to agree More household vehicles less likely to agree Survey Location Austin and Chicago more likely to agree; Dothan and Norfolk less Percent Agree

19 Emission Attitudes: Willing to Change Behavior I am willing to carpool or take public transit more frequently to reduce carbon emissions from my vehicle. Household Income Age Employment Status Household Vehicles Decreases as income increases Decreases as age increases Students most willing to change behavior Decreases as number of household vehicles increases Large differences by region Percent Agree

20 Emission Attitudes: Willingness to Pay I am willing to pay higher tolls if they are used to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions. Household Income Gender Almost no variation by income, compared with large variation in willingness to pay for travel time savings Employment Status Household Vehicles Women more willing to pay to reduce emissions Decreases as number of household vehicles increases Percent Agree

21 Emission Attitudes: Tolls for Transit I support using tolls to pay for public transportation. Survey Location Household Vehicles Household Income High income households more likely to support using tolls for transit Decreases as number of household vehicles increases Percent Agree

22 Latent Class Analysis  Latent Class Analysis was used to group respondents into clusters based on their responses to the toll and emission attitude questions.  Probability-based classification into unknown groups  Homogenous groups of respondents who share similar attitudes Attitude StatementMean ValueCluster 1Cluster 2Cluster 3Cluster 4 I will use a toll route if the tolls are reasonable and I save time. 72%96%97%33%54% I support using tolls to pay for highway improvements that relieve congestion. 54%94%93%2%14% I can generally afford to pay tolls. 55%72%82%24%44% I understand what vehicle carbon emissions are.* 90% 98%76%95% Carbon emissions from my vehicle contribute to climate change. 56%33%90%15%95% I am willing to carpool or take public transit more frequently to reduce carbon emissions from my vehicle. 41%20%71%14%66% I am willing to pay higher tolls if they are used to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions. 31%4%84%0%24% I support using tolls to pay for public transportation. 41%47%88%1%21% Cluster Sizes * Not used as an input variable to the latent class analysis > Average < Average Percent Agree

23 Latent Class Descriptions  Cluster 1: “I’ll pay for anything that benefits me directly”  Willing to pay to save time.  Can afford to pay tolls.  Don’t believe they are contributing to climate change and don’t want to do anything about it.  Cluster Characteristics:  Higher than average income  Slightly older  Skews male  Cluster 2: “I’ll do anything to reduce my impact”  Willing to pay to save time.  Can afford to pay tolls.  Believe they are contributing to climate change and willing to pay more and change behavior to reduce impact  Cluster Characteristics:  Slightly higher income  Fewer household vehicles  Skews female  Cluster 3: “ I don’t believe in climate change or double taxation.”  Not willing to pay to save time.  Can’t afford to pay tolls.  Don’t believe they are contributing to climate change and don’t want to do anything about it.  Cluster Characteristics  Slightly lower income  More household vehicles  More likely to be from the Norfolk Sample  Cluster 4: “I’d like to reduce my impact, but I can’t afford it”  Not willing to pay to save time.  Can’t afford to pay tolls.  Believe they are contributing to climate change and willing to shift behavior, but not pay extra  Cluster Characteristics:  Lower income  Younger  More students  Skews female

24 Conclusions  Vast majority of respondents are aware that their vehicles emit carbon, but only slightly more than half think this is contributing to climate change. Even fewer are willing to change their behavior or pay to reduce emissions. Support decreases as personal sacrifice increases.  Many people are willing to pay for something that directly benefits them, such as saving travel time, but fewer are willing to pay for something less tangible such as emissions reduction.  Distinct attitudinal groups exist. What is the best way to market policy initiatives to each group?  How do you get ~50% of the population (clusters 1 and 3) to agree that climate change is an issue?  How do you get them to care enough to do something about it?  More research is needed!

25 Questions?