For institutional investors and professional advisers only. This information has not been approved for use with customers. THE CASE FOR EUROPEAN COMMERICAL.

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Presentation transcript:

For institutional investors and professional advisers only. This information has not been approved for use with customers. THE CASE FOR EUROPEAN COMMERICAL PROPERTY

Growth of European Property Investments Significant growth of investment activity in continental Europe - up 160.5% in last 5 years to end December Cross border investments grew by 269.5% over same period. Transparency increasing. Further improvements expected. Increasing availability of opportunities Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, January 2007 Past performance is not a guide to the future. European direct real estate investment volumes (ex-UK) To end June 2006

European Property Returns Europe forecast to out perform UK across property spectrum Source: Morley Fund Management, January 2007 This is a forecast and should not be relied on as a recommendation for the fund.

European Property Returns Europe forecast to out perform UK across all main sectors Source: Morley Fund Management, January 2007 This is a forecast and should not be relied on as a recommendation for the fund.

European Asset Class Returns Source: *Factset 29 December 2006, **Property Strategy Team at Morley Fund Management, end December 2006 Source: *Strategy Team at Morley Fund Management, **Property Strategy Team at Morley Fund Management, end December 2006 Total return forecast of 6.5%pa with 5%pa income component Robust projected returns from European property Strong income yield of 5%

Correlation of property returns with other asset classes Source: Morley Fund Management. As at end November 2006 UK Correlation of annual returns over 59 years from European Correlation of annual returns over 17 years from Past performance is not a guide to the future. Property provides good diversification with other asset classes

Cross correlation of UK ad European property markets Source: ID (5 years to end 2005) European real estate markets provide diversification

European Property Market Forecasts BUT… stock selection is key France+ for all sectors Spain- for offices + for retail & industrial Nordics + for all sectors Central Europe - for all sectors Germany + for retail & industrial ? for offices Italy - for all sectors

European Real Estate Securities France - Especially the recovering office market Scandinavia - Relative high income Yields Italy – Introduction of REITS Listed Securities provide liquidity and complements the direct portfolio REITS in Germany in 2007 REITS in Italy in 2007 REITS in Finland in 2008 Germany - First signs of office market recovering -Residential market privatisations Central & Eastern Europe - Growing investment market

Returns forecast to outperform UK by 30% over next 5 years and be nearer equities than bonds Growth of activity brings liquidity and transparency Low correlation against both UK property and other asset classes makes it a strong diversifier There is a compelling case for a significant European Property exposure in many portfolios A case for European Property - Conclusion A compelling investment opportunity Source: Morley Fund Management. As at January 2007 This is a forecast and should not be relied on as a recommendation for the fund.

Important information The value of an investment in the fund and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may not get back the original amount invested. The opinions are those of the Fund Manager and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment in the fund. This fund invests not only in direct commercial property but property company shares and cash. Therefore the value of the fund will rise and fall in line not only with property values and rental income streams, but capital values and dividends of the shares; interest rates available on cash and the value of any other investments included in the fund. The fund may have some investment in bonds or shares issued by companies in so-called ‘emerging markets’. This carries a higher risk than investing in larger, established markets. Investments in emerging markets are likely to experience greater rises and falls in value, and may have problems in trading and settlement. When funds invest in bonds in overseas currencies, the value will go up and down in line with movements in exchange rates. In addition, the capital and income from a fund will rise and fall due to movements in interest rates. The value of property investments is generally a matter of valuers’ opinion rather than fact. In addition property investments may not always be readily saleable and very occasionally there maybe constraints on cashing in units. Norwich Union and Morley Fund Management Limited are both Aviva companies. Norwich Union Investment Funds Limited. Registered in England No Norwich Union Investment Funds Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered Office 8 Surrey Street, Norwich, NR1 3NG.

The Case for European Commercial Property Chris Laxton March 2007