What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Introduction What does Peak Oil Mean? What is the “Oil Independent Oakland by 2020 Task Force”?

Peak Oil Opportunities and Challenge at the end of Cheap Petroleum Richard Heinberg Scripps College September 18, 2006 The Challenge of Peak Oil The Challenge of Peak Oil Richard Heinberg Oil Independent Oakland Task Force Richard Heinberg Oil Independent Oakland Task Force

Post Carbon Institute

Chevron: “Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries, yet energy demand is increasing around the globe as economies grow and nations develop.”

Global Oil Discoveries ExxonMobil 2003

How serious a problem is this?

Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader (commissioned by US Department of Energy, February 2005) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

GAO Report on Peak Oil Released April 2007; conclusions: Did not attempt a time estimate; forecasts of peak range from 2005 to 2030 The risks are serious and growing At best, the US can replace 4% of its liquid fuels with alternatives by 2015 Secretary of Energy should establish a federal Peak Oil strategy

Ethanol to the rescue? “ Even if all of the 300 million acres (500,000 square miles) of currently harvested U.S. cropland produced ethanol, it wouldn’t supply all of the gasoline and diesel fuel we now burn for transport, and it would supply only about half of the needs for the year And the effects on land and would be devastating.” --“The False Hope of Biofuels: For Energy and Environmental Reasons, Ethanol Will Never Replace Gasoline” (James Jordan and James Powell, Washington Post, July 2, 2006)

Post Carbon Institute What does “green” mean? In some ways, it makes sense to use carbon emissions as the measure of both the problem and potential solutions, since Carbon emissions are the primary driver of climate change, and Climate change is the worst environmental problem facing us.

What does “green” mean? However, exclusive use of the carbon emissions metric can be misleading: It ignores fuel supply problems GHG reduction leads to different solutions than petroleum independence. On the OIO Task Force we have found this to be an important distinction!

For More Information on Peak Oil: oildepletionprotocol.org postcarboncities.org

So what do we do now… Oil Independent Oakland by 2020 Task Force Inspired by Sweden’s Commission on Oil Independence- Report Released June 2006 When council member Nadel Learned about Sweden’s Commission, she and the council were inspired to bring that vision to Oakland City of Portland Peak Oil Task Force Report Released March with theme of Act Big, Act Now Composed of 11 City Council and Mayoral Appointees Organized into 4 working groups (plus one ad hoc) Land Use and Infrastructure Transportation Food and Social Equity Port of Oakland

OIO by 2020 Task Force Our Principles (abbreviated) Employ triple bottom line approach, environment, equity, economy City actionable Bias Towards Bold “Both/and” rather than “either/or” approach 80/20 rule for most impact Continuous improvement model Whole system with parts greater than whole Leverage other similar efforts and other experts in the area

OIO by 2020 Task Force- Metrics Key Measures Petroleum Use Per Capita Jobs Emissions Impact (especially GHG’s) Secondary Measures Economic Impact Fiscal Impact to City Life Cycle Cost

Timeline We expect to report by the end of the year We want your input- now!