Fortis Bank Financial Symposium Amsterdam, March 21 st 2002 UNICREDITO ITALIANO: CREATING VALUE THROUGH LONG TERM RETIREMENT SERVICES Gianluca Benatti.

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Presentation transcript:

Fortis Bank Financial Symposium Amsterdam, March 21 st 2002 UNICREDITO ITALIANO: CREATING VALUE THROUGH LONG TERM RETIREMENT SERVICES Gianluca Benatti Head of Retail Investment Services

2 Group highlights Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years Key success factors for a bank in this business Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack AGENDA

3 UCI: A EUROPEAN LEADER IN DISTRIBUTION, A GLOBAL PLAYER IN ASSET MANAGEMENT WITH OUTSTANDING PROFITABILITY AND EFFICIENCY MKT CAP. Euro 23.5 bn (1) (1)As of NET INCOME Euro 1,454 mln C/I RATIO 52.7% PRE-TAX ROE 32.9% ROE 18.0% BRANCH NETWORK 3, KEY FIGURES

4 THE DIVISIONAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS OUR GROUP STRATEGY FOCUSED ON SPECIALISATION OF PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION Diversified investments and structure to exploit different options for growth and to diversify business portfolio Brilliant results from recent investments, reinforcing confidence on the quality of the strategy Italian Banking still core business, but other divisions’ importance growing at a fast pace Different business models for production and distribution Foreign Banks Italian Banking Wholesale Banking New Initiatives New Europe Banking Italian Banks

ROE (1) 20.8% (4) COST/INCOME RATIO 52.7% 51.0% % 47.7% Structural Cost/Income 18.0% +3.5% ,318 NET INCOME 4,726 9,989 4, % ,395 1, (Euro mln) +4.2% 1,611 (2) 1,695 (3) +5.3% 22.2% (2) 21.0% (3) (Euro mln) 19.2% (5) DESPITE A DETERIORATED MARKET ENVIRONMENT UCI SHOWS GOOD REVENUE AND INCOME GROWTH TOTAL REVENUES OPERATING INCOME (1) Calculated on end of period net equity (2) Adding back goodwill amortisation related to the Group and 98-’99 provisions related to Ciampi Law (3) Adding back goodwill amortisation related to the Group (4) Adding back ’98-’99 provisions related to Ciampi Law (5) Calculated on Group net income of Euro 1395 mln (Euro mln)

6 Italian Banking- Other Italian Banking- Wealth Management New Europe UBM + TLPioneer REVENUE COMPOSITION BY BUSINESS AREA (Net of Corporate Centre negative contribution) WE WERE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FROM THE WEALTH MANAGEMENT AND ASSET MANAGEMENT BUSINESS % 13.7% 2.7% 4.8% 19.0% 60.2% 14.6% 4.7% 5.8% 14.6% 78.8% 74.8%

7... THANKS TO OUR ABILITY TO PARTIALLY COUNTERBALANCE THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL MARKETS ON COMMISSIONS WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE ADDED PRODUCTS NET COMMISSIONS 2000* 2001 % ch. (Euro mln) Excellent impact of capital guaranteed products on commissions from segregated accounts and insurance products * consistent with new Bank of Italy criteria for breakdown of commissions Commissions from securities in custody suffered the lower turnover of customers’ portfolios Positive contribution from other services (mainly commissions from loans granted and from payment services) Asset management commissions stable despite negative market environment Asset management1,8031, Mutual funds1,3241, Securities in custody Other services, of which:1.1541, Insurance products Total3,2913, Loans granted & received Cash management services Segregated accounts

8 CAPITAL GUARANTEED PRODUCTS: EURO 7.46 Bn NET INFLOWS IN 2001*, MORE THAN EURO 8.7 Bn FROM LAUNCH TO FEB. ‘02 * Net of Euro 91 mln. inflow from a joint BANK PEKAO / TRADINGLAB Capital Protected Note issued in October 1, , (Euro bn) 0 2Q’013Q’014Q’01Jan-Feb Segregated Accounts Unit Linked (UNISTAR) 1Q’ Fund, Equity & Index Linked Notes 3 4 Tot: 1,018 Tot: 465 Tot: 1,989 Tot: 3,988 Tot: 1, sales Net inflows 1, Ch. on bp Dec 01 mkt sh. MUTUAL FUNDS 2001 sales Premium written +43 Rank in Italy 1 st UNIT LINKED 3,889 Confirmed leadership in market shares on Unit Linked (98% of the total new production of insurance premiums): 34.5% (+11 pp y/y) in Bancassurance only 26.7% (+ 9.7 pp y/y) on total market % Ch. on 00 OUR EXCELLENT COMMERCIAL RESULTS ALLOWED UCI GROUP TO RANK FIRST IN THE SALES OF ALL HIGH VALUE-ADDED PRODUCTS IN ITALY (Euro mln)

9 Group highlights Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years Key success factors for a bank in this business Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack AGENDA

10 THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE MUCH MORE RESILIENT…. A shrinking “social parachute”: declining birth rate, shorter working life, longer life expectancy A shrinking “private parachute”: decreasing families’ size, improved mobility and lower children-parents dependency (THE CATHOLIC FAMILY CONCEPT IS CHALLENGED) A changing approach to golden age: longer, healthier, wealthier THESE ARE LONG TERM TRENDS OF CHANGE, RELATIVELY INDEPENDENT OF FINANCIAL MARKET CYCLES

11 EMPLOYEES Euro Euro Euro RETIREMENT GAP % AGE OF RETIREMENT SELF-EMPLOYED WORKERS Current Pillar II schemes are far from succeeding in closing the gap between last pay and retirement income in the case of middle and high- income individuals Self-employed workers more penalised than employees AVERAGE YEARLY INCOME IN THE LAST DECADE PERSPECTIVE PENSION BURDEN ON PUBLIC FINANCES FORCED ITALY TO REDUCE HER GENEROSITY Source: Pioneer Global Asset Management Research Unit

12 50’S Today retirement starts working first child child starts working and becomes independent Head of the family’s age DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS WILL AFFECT THE TRANSFER OF WEALTH AMONG GENERATIONS In the 50’s, households’ financial needs had already been satisfied at the age of 55, whereas today they are all unmet Today financial assets at the threshold of the golden age have to be much higher than before and are “the scarce resource” Head of the family’s age

13 A LONGER LIFE DURATION BRINGS IN NEW KIND OF FEARS “WHAT ARE THE LANDMARKS OF THE GOLDEN AGE”? % OF RESPONDENTS; MULTIPLE ANSWERS ADMITTED

Households’ total financial assets: Euro 1,878 bn 2000 Households’ total financial assets: Euro 2,602 bn SO FAR PENSION PRODUCTS HAVE NOT FULLY BENEFITED FROM THE STRONG GROWTH OF TOTAL FINANCIAL ASSETS IN ITALY Italian savings market witnessed an unprecedented growth in the past 4 years (CAGR 8.5%). Households progressively reduced their risk aversion, as shown by the rise of the portion of assets diverted to mutual funds and shares Source: Bank of Italy Life/Pensions: 10% Other: 3% Deposits: 30% Bonds: 30% Mutual Funds: 5% Equities: 22% Life/Pensions: 11% Other: 2% Deposits: 25% Bonds: 19% Mutual Funds: 18% Equities: 25% +8.5% CAGR Pension funds could scarcely benefit from this growth, mainly due to legal uncertainties and lack of products

15 MUTUAL FUNDS INSTEAD OF PENSION FUNDS: ITALY VERSUS THE NETHERLANDS Source: Pioneer Global Asset Management Research Unit

16 BUT PENSIONS WILL BECOME ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRIES IN ITALY IN THE NEXT DECADES Pension fund industry set to grow strongly in the next 20 years Euro bn This will be due to the diversion of a larger portion of savings to pension funds and life insurance products and to a partial switch of assets from other investment categories We estimate that the Italian pension fund market will total Euro 2,000 bns in This would imply a CAGR of 23.5% for the pension fund industry +23.5% CAGR ,000 1,500 2,000 2, Source: Pioneer Global Asset Management Research Unit

17 Group highlights Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years Key success factors for a bank in this business Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack AGENDA

18 THE URGE FOR A PENSION NEED HAS ALREADY BEEN CREATED, BUT HARDLY IT WILL BE TRANSFORMED INTO SHAREHOLDERS’ VALUE Trust: why should banks’ salespeople be suddenly trusted an insurance-related culture? Culture: why should Italian customers suddenly “invest long term” and not invest to get short term gains? Matching: will longer term products produce the same revenues as current shorter term portfolios? ISSUES FOR BANKS PAYG scheme simulations widely available on and off- line, through banks, financial consultants, agents Press campaigns always on TAKE OFF INDEPENDENT OF FURTHER REFORMS

19 93% 83% 69% 78% 87% 84% 0%20%40%60%80%100% buy a house integrate social security benefits get medical assistance inheritance to children children’s education unforeseen IT REQUIRES ENHANCED SALE SKILLS: “RETIREMENT” MEANS “PROTECTION” AND IMPLIES MANY TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS December 2000 DOXA survey on retirement; % of interviewees declaring interest in the item Retiremen t Services They go well beyond selling single premium financial Unit Linked It means offering a complex advice which is not normally recognised to banks’ salesforce Saving for retiremen t means

20 Sales Reps will have to test and quantify the most common constraint to the take off of private pensions: the intra-generation wealth transfer Child Parent Expected inheritance weakens the perception of Social Security gap Expected support from children (in return for inheritance) weakens the perception of Social Security and Assistance gap Reasons NOT to be investing for one’s own retirement Client Status Some events in life are bound to break this virtuous cycle: mobility due to education mobility due to job search consumption (non durable) in the old age etc IT REQUIRES EVEN MORE TRUST FROM THE CLIENT: TO GET THE SOFT AND DELICATE INFO NECESSARY TO IDENTIFY THE NEED

21 Group highlights Life/pension is the key asset-gathering market in the next five years Key success factors for a bank in this business Why Unicredito Italiano is bound to be among the leaders of the pack AGENDA

22 THIS IS A BUSINESS OF MANAGING RISKS AFFECTING HOUSEHOLDS’ BALANCE SHEET AND INCOME STATEMENT Longevity risk Coping with the unavoidable heavy Health care ticket of the old age w/o eating into the living standard (=the pension revenues) Preserving stocks FOR heirs and protecting them FROM conversion into a supplementary annuity Coping with the unforeseen w/o eating into the household’s assets and revenues Coping with the odd of NOT achieving a consumption/accumulation target, due to market vagaries Catastrophic risk Financial risk

23 LEVERAGING OUR EXCELLENT GROUP MANUFACTURERS WE ARE OVERHAULING THE WHOLE PROCESS TO GAIN TRUST FROM CLIENTS IN THE OTHER TWO AREAS OF HOUSEHOLDS’ RISK MANAGEMENT SELLING PROCESS REDESIGN NEW PENSION PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION MODEL DEDICATED COMMUNICATION BRAND NEW PFP SOFTWARE BRAND NEW TRAINING TOOLS BRAND NEW PRODUCTS