Alfred Nobel University, Dnipropetrovsk ANALYZING ECONOMIC TIME SERIES WITH TIME- VARING VOLATILITY AS A WAY OF GLOBAL MARKET STABILIZATION Kateryna Bolotova, EE-12

STRUCTURE STRUCTURE 1.The demand for formation of a new modern theory that could solve one of the most important problems nowadays, that is the financial crisis. 2.Scientific activity of Robert Engle, a Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics. 3.The contribution of Robert Engle to prediction of the development of all types of markets and prices as a way to protect companies from a financial crisis.

The Cycle of Market Economy recovery recession peak trough

Impact of the Crisis on Economic Activity

ROBERT FRY ENGLE ІІІ is an American economist and the winner of the 2003 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences «for methods of analyzing economic time series with time- varying»

Robert F. Engle receiving his Prize from King Carl XVІ Gustaf of Sweden at the Stockholm Concert Hall, 10 December 2003

Now Robert F. Engle is s Professor with Chair of management of the Financial Department at New York University

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity A R C H MODELS

One of the major tasks of the modern economics is to provide the analysis and prediction of the development of all types of markets. The prediction of prices takes a special place in the stock market because the effectiveness of the managerial decision- making depends on the prediction obtained.

«The model of Engle has become indispensable not only for scientists but also for the financial and market analysts, who use it for property valuation and risk investment» (the Swedish Academy of Sciences)

HARD WORK ENGLE’SMETHOD Engle’s method could help an entrepreneur to be able to analyze economic time series to act decisively in the right direction CONCLUSION