POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE, RANGELANDS, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES IN EUROPE Emmanuel Cloppet Météo-France 21 – 23 February 2005 Auckland (NZ) Implementation/coordination team of the CAGM OPAG 3 on climate change/variability and natural disasters in agriculture

Methodology In order to carry out this synthesis was used: A questionnaire addressed to all principal delegates of RA VI members Personal knowledge Litterature

Economic context of European agriculture The CAP was introduced by the European Community in it encouraged both production and productivity Farms have had to modernize. A consequence was a drop in the number of exploitations and an increase in the size of the exploitations. The CAP impacts directly on the production choices of farmers in Europe, sometimes more than the climate

Development of Yield in EU Agriculture

Climatic characteristics of Europe Europe : a wide range of climatic conditions marine, humid continental, semi-arid continental, dry summer subtropical, sub-polar and polar

Agricultural production in Europe 68% of the cropped area is dedicated to cereals Agricultural cropped area in 2003 in Europe

Impact of Climate Change on Wheat and other C3 cereals Ranges of percentage changes in winter wheat yields spanning several GCM scenarios Studies are by 2080s except for Spain (by 2040s) and Europe (by 2050s). Assuming A2 forcing or a 2 * CO 2 equilibrium All studies include C0 2 direct effect

Impact of Climate Change on Maize Ranges of percentage changes in maize yields spanning several GCM scenarios Studies are by 2080s except for Spain (by 2040s) All studies include C0 2 direct effect Assuming A2 forcing or a 2 * CO 2 equilibrium

Impact of Climate Change on other annual crops Seed crops : mainly increase in yield (sunflower, soybean) Root and Tuber crops : no clear trends Vegetable crops : Their response to changes in temperature and CO 2 varies among species

Impact of Climate Change on Perenial crops Fruits : global warming should inhibit budburst. Vineyards: there is potential for expansion of the wine-growing area in Europe Olive tree : climate change is likely to enable expansion of olive tree growing areas.

Impact of Climate Change on Forestry An increase in the productivity of the forests Earlier budburst can be expected A modification of the composition of the forests Disturbance regimes

Impact of Climate Change on diseases The disturbance caused by biotic agents, such as pathogens, may be a highly significant factor to be considered that plant diseases are strongly influenced by weather factors Studies emphasize the need of a better understanding of the impacts of global change on plant pathogens Few studies combining a physiologically-based approach with a climatic scenario have been carried out

Impact of Climate Change on diseases (2) Bergot et al (2004) have examined the effects of climate warming on one of the most widely distributed and destructive forest pathogen, Phytophthora cinnamomi Higher annual rates of P.cinnamomi survival were predicted, resulting in a potential range expansion of the disease of one to a few hundred kilometers eastward from the Atlantic coast within one century

Impact of Climate Change on grasslands and livestocks systems Heat stress has several negative effects on animal production Permanent grassland and heathland occupy a large proportion of the European agricultural area. Intensively managed and nutrient-rich grasslands will respond positively to the increase in CO 2 concentration and to rising temperature, as long as water resources are sufficient The importance of water management including drainage may be very important

Conclusion Climate change could increase the productivity of agrosystems and European forests thanks to the direct effect of CO2. Global warming is likely to enable extension of main crops growing areas towards the North. Possible changes in water availabity, frequency of extreme events and biotic risks may reduce these potential benefits or even have deleterious impacts The rise in productivity and the steady introduction of new technologies observed in Europe these last 40 years suggest however a high adaptative capacity of european agriculture and forestry which may ensure the transition towards a new climatic and economic context.