Cryosphere hazards from the perspective of a State Agency Gabriel Wolken Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys 3354 College Road, Fairbanks, Alaska Ph: Fax: web: Gabriel Wolken Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys 3354 College Road, Fairbanks, Alaska Ph: Fax: web:

Alaska DGGS – Hazards Programs Climate Change Hazards (CCHP) Geohazards Evaluation and Geologic Mapping for Coastal Communities 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards2 Flooded permafrost cellar near the Wulik River, NW Alaska – Hazards assessment and evaluation – Information management and dissemination Promoting Public awareness

06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards3 Glossary of Hazards Hazard Types Published Maps and Reports Found at: Engineering geology>Guide to geologic hazards in Alaska Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska

06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards4 State of Alaska Statute AS Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys “...determine the … potential geologic hazards to buildings, roads, bridges, and other installations and structures.”

What is a hazard? Hazard: an exposure to a natural geophysical process that adversely affects people, property, or infrastructure Risk: the likelihood of the hazard x its adverse consequence 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards5 Natural Processes Natural Hazards Photo: N. Kinsman

Alaska and the Cryosphere 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards6

Alaska and the Cryosphere 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards7 Flooded permafrost cellar near the Wulik River, NW Alaska R. Reger Thermokarst and bike path in Fairbanks, AK A. Gal Ice Bridge across the Chena River, Fairbanks, AK P. Carter Avalanche on the Richardson Highway

Alaska and the Cryosphere 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards8 Flooding and erosion affects 184 out of 213, or 86 percent, of Alaska Native villages to some extent (US Government Accounting Office Report GAO T). 71 percent of Alaska coastal communities, or 80 out of 112, sit at or below 10 meters elevation.

Changes in Climate 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards9 Changes in climate can modify or intensify natural processes that lead to hazards

Changes in Coastal Processes 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards10 Decreased sea ice extent and duration – Reduced shore protection – Increased fetch – Storm surges Increased sea surface temperatures – Thermal abrasion – Increased sediment load Accelerated thermokarst development – Increased lagoon and tidal prism volumes – Erosion Sea level rise – Inundation of low-lying areas Photo: J Mitchell Kivalina

Changes in Alaska’s Northern Region 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards11 Coastal erosion may have doubled since 1955 Inland expansion of channel networks and increased river bank erosion have been attributed to warming Lakes, ponds, and wetlands appear to be more dynamic, growing in some areas, shrinking in others, and changing distribution across lowland regions Permafrost degradation on the Arctic coastal plain suggests percent of lowland and tundra landscapes may be affected by even modest warming Slope instability in headwater regions is increasing and leading to increased sedimentation rates Photo: USGS

Changes in Alaska’s Glaciers 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards12 During the 20 th and 21 st centuries, most land- terminating glaciers in Alaska retreated extensively from their Little Ice Age maximum extent Since 1980, nearly all glaciers in Alaska have been in a state of retreat Contributing significantly to sea level rise Changes in water availability and sedimentation rates will impact: – Water supplies – Water quality – Hydroelectric power generation potential – Flood hazards – Freshwater, estuarine and coastal habitats

Cryosphere Hazards and Alaska 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards13 Photo: AK DCRA Shishmaref Changes in climate can modify or intensify natural processes that lead to hazards Natural hazards in the Cryosphere can cause casualties and severely damage property and infrastructure Numerous threatened communities in Alaska are currently involved in mitigation or adaptation efforts in response to Cryosphere hazards Informed community decision making requires accurate and up- to-date baseline geoscience data

Cryosphere Hazards Investigations  Establish a collection of baseline data  Hazards assessment and evaluation Existence, changes, and potential  Promote public awareness of hazards and educate the public about specific hazards in their area  Provide critical information to decision-makers for use in community planning and risk management builds capacity at all levels helps communities mitigate or adapt to the impacts of hazards 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards14

Knowledge Gaps and Issues of Concern 06/13/2011Workshop on Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Hazards15 It’s Alaska… Baseline data are sparse, limed duration, or nonexistent Access to data is challenging Hazard assessments are not performed regularly or routinely Limited financial resources Causal links are equivocal Lack of communication among scientists and few collaborations Lack of an efficient method for coordinating activities, prioritizing