Theorising and Exploring the Thatcherite Legacy for the Criminal Justice System Stephen Farrall Political Studies Ass. Conference March 2015

Our Approach: Drawing on Historical Institutionalism Concerned with illuminating how institutions and institutional settings mediate the ways in which processes unfold over time. Institutions do not simply ‘channel’ policies; they help to define policy concerns, create the ‘objects’ of policy and shape the nature of the interests in policies which actors may have. So … Politics does not simply create policies; policies also create politics. Attempts to understand how political and policy processes and relationships play out over time coupled with an appreciation that prior events, procedures and processes will have consequences for subsequent events. There are both fast- and slow-moving causal processes and outcomes.

Economic change Changes in social security provision Changes in the housing market Changes in education policies In which ways might increases in crime be a legacy of ‘Thatcherite’ policies?

Economic Changes Economic restructuring overseen by Thatcher governments. Consequently, levels of unemployment and inequality rose through the 1980s Social Security Act based on Fowler Review (1984) reduced payments for many individual benefits claimants (whilst total spend increased due to unemp).

Jennings et al (2012) find: 1: unemployment rate associated with property crime, 2: this strengthened during this period, 3: (economic inequality just outside significance), 4: increases in welfare spending is associated with declines in the property crime rate. The Economy, Social Security and Crime in Post-War Britain

1980 Housing Act (+ others): created RTB – huge rise in owner-occupation. Created residualisation of council housing; redistributed social location of domestic crimes. Working Paper available for comment ( Housing Policy

What happened to crime (etc)? Rise in crime (Fig 1). This was generally rising before 1979, but the rate of increase picked up after early 1980s and again in early 1990s. Fear of crime rises (tracks crime rates). People want to see an increase in spending on the police/prisons (with decrease of spending on social security, Fig 2).

Figure 1: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS)

Fig 2: Priorities for extra spending (social security vs. police) BSAS

What have Govts done? They devote more time to crime in policy agenda (Fig 3). Little sustained interest in crime until 60s (2%). After 1979 GE rises to 8%. Big jump again in 1996 (15%). Thereafter runs at or near to 20%.

Figure 3: Proportion of attention to law and crime in Queen’s Speech (from policyagendas.org)

Modelling Govt focus on crime Farrall and Jennings (2012) report statistically significant relationships for: 1: national crime rate on Govt attention on crime in Queen’s Speeches, and, 2: effects of public opinion on Govt. attention on crime in Queen’s Speeches. So the Govt responds to crime rates and expressions of public concern about crime.

Consistent with Cascades of Policy Radicalism (Hay and Farrall, 2014) Thatcherite radicalism cascaded through sectors of social and economic policy. Initial focus on the economy and electorally popular policies (housing). Social Security reformed mid-1980s. From 1987 education, NHS, local Govts. Focus on crime a ‘spillover’ from other areas.

Outline of current work ESRC grant with Colin Hay, Emily Gray and Will Jennings: Analyses of BCS, BSAS, GHS, BES + national level data. Data sets to be made available autumn Training workshop (Manchester 20 th May 2015) FULL 40min documentary film made (Doc Fest 2015) newsletter

Rest of Today’s Session Will will do … [TS] Maria will explore the degree to which we have identified ‘Thatcher’s Children’ in relation to various social/political attitudes. [APC] Emily will do the same for crime-related matters. [APC]

Further Reading Farrall, S. and Hay, C. (2010) Not So Tough on Crime? Why Weren’t the Thatcher Governments More Radical In Reforming the Criminal Justice System? British Journal of Criminology, 50(3): Farrall, S. and Jennings, W. (2012) Policy Feedback and the Criminal Justice Agenda: an analysis of the economy, crime rates, politics and public opinion in post-war Britain, Contemporary British History, 26(4): Farrall, S. and Jennings, W. (2014) Thatcherism and Crime: The Beast that Never Roared?, in Farrall S., and Hay, C. Thatcher’s Legacy: Exploring and Theorising the Long-term Consequencies of Thatcherite Social and Economic Policies, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp Farrall, S. and Hay, C. (2014) Locating ‘Thatcherism’ In The ‘Here and Now’, in Farrall S., and Hay, C. Thatcher’s Legacy: Exploring and Theorising the Long-term Consequencies of Thatcherite Social and Economic Policies, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp Farrall, S., Gray, E., Jennings, W. Hay, C. (2014) Using Ideas Derived from Historical Institutionalism to Illuminate the Long-term Impacts on Crime of ‘Thatcherite’ Social and Economic Policies: A Working Paper. Hay, C. and Farrall, S. (2014) Interrogating and Conceptualising the Legacy of Thatcherism, in Farrall S., and Hay, C. Thatcher’s Legacy: Exploring and Theorising the Long-term Consequencies of Thatcherite Social and Economic Policies, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp Hay, C. and Farrall, S. (2011) Establishing the ontological status of Thatcherism by gauging its ‘periodisability’: towards a ‘cascade theory’ of public policy radicalism, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 13(4): Jennings, W., Farrall, S. and Bevan, S. (2012) The Economy, Crime and Time: an analysis of recorded property crime in England & Wales , International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 40(3):