ASEAN Markets in the Age of Differentiation Marc P. Mealy US-ASEAN Business Council HSBC Emerging Markets Conference New York November 6, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

ASEAN Markets in the Age of Differentiation Marc P. Mealy US-ASEAN Business Council HSBC Emerging Markets Conference New York November 6, 2013

Three concentric circles ( global, Asia and ASEAN) shaping growth trends and investment opportunities ASEAN markets like Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand fit into various segments of global value chains of American, Asian and European MNC’s in sectors such as energy, electronics, and autos. ASEAN markets like Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei are benefiting from China’s growth and $1.8 trillion import market. – 2013 ASEAN-China trade at $500 billion, $1 trillion in 2020? ASEAN markets Vietnam and Indonesia are benefiting from domestic demand led growth drivers (consumption and services) and intra-ASEAN trade and investment flows as part of the formation of the ASEAN Economic Community(AEC).

Diversity of growth drivers a source of investment strength In 2012 Southeast Asia did $12 billion in IPO’s led by $7 billion from Malaysia making it #4 in the global IPO ranking, taking advantage of both external inflows (QE) and ample domestic investor liquidity. In 2013 first quarter SE Asia IPO’s reached $1.9 billion, surpassing north Asia for the first time since 1996 and represented 7.6% of global deal flow. Five years ago SE Asia represented only 1.2% of global deal flow. Malaysia also #1 in global $300 billion Islamic bond market.

Evolution of EM investment value proposition trends in ASEAN ASEAN has cheap labor/low cost manufacturing in Vietnam, Cambodia, eventually Myanmar. High skill/high value manufacturing activities in Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. Two growing trends in large population economies in Indonesia, Vietnam and fast growing sectors in several markets include: – Private equity (TPG, KKR, General Atlantic) investments ($20-$200 million) in domestic consumption market share leaders. – Investments in services (financial, health and education), energy and aerospace.

Trends to Watch Rise of the regional corporates in banking, aerospace, and energy should support continued growth in beyond China, beyond BRIC investing in ASEAN. CIMB, AirAsia X, and SapuraKencana Petroleum. Growing commercial use of ASEAN’s FTA network in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand) and potential of the TPP and RCEP negotiations to unlock new opportunities. The integration of Myanmar into regional and international value chains.