AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 ALMA Update: October 2004-October 2005 Bob Dickman ALMA Staff Associate Division of Astronomical Sciences

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Events Reviewed Antenna procurement Rebaselining Cost Review Near Future

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Rebaselining Fall 2004: Rebaselining begins  March 2002 project baseline antedates formal project agreements and Japanese participation September 2005: “Final” re-baseline cost estimate (JAO)  Assumptions  Common antenna type, ESO maintains procurement schedule, and 50-element array starting point  Increase in cost:  Antennas  Other areas  List of possible changes/descopes/scrubs  NSF working hard to buttress overruns: descopes, considering deferrable work, additional partnerships November 2005 goal: New Project Baseline (Scope, Cost and Schedule) in place

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Rebaselining: Cost Escalation Sources Antennas  Delay for coordinated procurement  Commodity price increases: oil, steel, nickel Site  Booming Chilean economy  Dollar/peso exchange rates Management  Joint ALMA Office, including Project Management & Control System (PMCS)  Costs of partnership Systems Engineering and Integration  Complexity of project Other (e.g., missing scope, etc.)

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Cost Review Lehman-style cost review Review requested by ALMA Board  Report will be passed on to NSF and ESO Council 4 days: October 13-16, 2005 Detailed assessment of  Cost  Schedule  Management  Initial assessment of i ntegrating Japan Enhanced ALMA; early operations; operations Panel:  Chair: Steve Beckwith  Vice-Chair: Thijs de Graauw  20-member panel  7 members each nominated by NA and ESO  4 members nominated by Japan  2 members nominated by Chile Report timed to fit needs of ALMA Board, NSF

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Antenna Procurement: I Parallel procurement required by different legal regimes and practices of partners Each partner provides half the total number of antennas Highly coordinated, based on purchase of two prototypes Goal is manufacture of a single design Start: December Bumps in the road:  Prototype performance:  Late questions about (mainly) one prototype arose Summer-Fall 2004  Extended testing program given to JAO; settled in early 2005 (both prototypes are excellent)  Coordinated procurement broke down in June 2005 with the interruption of the ESO procurement

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Antenna Procurement: II In June 2005, ALMA Board urged NSF/AUI/NRAO to proceed with a unilateral NA procurement This approach was supported by ESO Council NRAO signed antenna contract July 11, 2005 Significantly higher costs than even 1 year earlier:  Commodity cost increases  Assume all NRE (recoverable)  Loss of quantity discount (recoverable)

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Antenna Procurement: III ESO making rapid progress on procurement  NSF action has accelerated process  On schedule to complete by end of October  ESO Council endorsed a 50-element array Both prototype designs still in the running in Europe

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Immediate Future: Milestones ALMA Cost review: October ALMA Board acts on ESO antenna choice: November 1 NSF-USG decision process to select and authorize new baseline:  October March 2006 New Baseline put in place

AAAC Meeting: October 12, 2005 Challenges Operations Costs U.S. Cost increase  Non-Defense discretionary budgetary climate