METP - Statistics World Cup Elena Arias Marie-Paule Laurent Yvik Swan Solvay Business School Université Libre de Bruxelles Fall 2007.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Lecture 6: Conditional Convergence and Growth

Advertisements

SUOMEN PANKKI | FINLANDS BANK | BANK OF FINLAND Comments on ‘Exchange rate misalignment estimates – Sources of differences’ Iikka Korhonen Bank of Finland.

Income Distribution & Growth: Lecture II Empirical Evidence ECGA 6470: Economic Growth Development.

Productivity or Employment: Is it a choice? Andrea De Michelis Federal Reserve Board Marcello Estevão International Monetary Fund Beth Anne Wilson Federal.

Population Pyramids. There are generally three types of population pyramids created from age-sex distributions-- expansive, stationary and constrictive.

MTH 161: Introduction To Statistics

Covariance and Correlation: Estimator/Sample Statistic: Population Parameter: Covariance and correlation measure linear association between two variables,

Chapter 4 Describing the Relation Between Two Variables

Université d’Ottawa / University of Ottawa 2001 Bio 4118 Applied Biostatistics L10.1 CorrelationCorrelation The underlying principle of correlation analysis.

1 Solvay Business School – Université Libre de Bruxelles 1 Part 2 : Asset Valuation & Portfolio theory (6 hrs) 2.1. Case study 1 : buy side & sell side.

Optical illusion ? Correlation ( r or R or  ) -- One-number summary of the strength of a relationship -- How to recognize -- How to compute Regressions.

Copyright (c) Bani K. Mallick1 STAT 651 Lecture #18.

REGRESSION What is Regression? What is the Regression Equation? What is the Least-Squares Solution? How is Regression Based on Correlation? What are the.

“The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James A. Robinson (2001)

Logical Line Fitting: One Step in the EDA Process by Shannon Guerrero Northern Arizona University NCTM 2008 Annual Meeting & Exposition Salt Lake City,

Chapter 12 Production and Growth.

PSY 307 – Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences

10-2 Correlation A correlation exists between two variables when the values of one are somehow associated with the values of the other in some way. A.

Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment Thorvaldur Gylfason and Gylfi Zoega.

A Clear Advantage: The Benefits of Transparency to Foreign Direct Investment By Elaine Shen and Mike Sliwinski.

How Can We Describe the Relationship between two sets of Quantitative Data? 1.

Correlation and regression 1: Correlation Coefficient

Prior Knowledge Linear and non linear relationships x and y coordinates Linear graphs are straight line graphs Non-linear graphs do not have a straight.

Chapter 6 & 7 Linear Regression & Correlation

What is the MPC?. Learning Objectives 1.Use linear regression to establish the relationship between two variables 2.Show that the line is the line of.

Copyright © 2010, 2007, 2004 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved Lecture Slides Elementary Statistics Eleventh Edition and the Triola.

Calculating economic growth. The formula for calculating % change in real GDP is the following % change in real GDP = final value of real GDP – initial.

Methodology Part 1. Hindsight Bias “I knew it all along” The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that we knew the outcome.

Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 2 How Economists Work.

1 What you will learn today 1. New vocabulary 2. How to determine if data points are related 3. How to develop a linear regression equation 4. How to graph.

Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 6 Economic Growth: Solow Model.

Max temp v min temp. It can be seen from the scatterplot that there is a correlation between max temp and min temp. Generally, as min temp increases,

FIN822 Li1 Welcome to Econometrics. FIN822 Li2 Why study Econometrics? An empirical analysis uses data to test a theory or to estimate a relationship.

Chapter Two Observing and Explaining the Economy.

By: Amani Albraikan.  Pearson r  Spearman rho  Linearity  Range restrictions  Outliers  Beware of spurious correlations….take care in interpretation.

Y X 0 X and Y are not perfectly correlated. However, there is on average a positive relationship between Y and X X1X1 X2X2.

LECTURE 1 - SCOPE, OBJECTIVES AND METHODS OF DISCIPLINE "ECONOMETRICS"

Gross Domestic Product. What is Gross Domestic Product? The total market value of all final goods and services produced during a given period of time.

CHALLENGES FOR THE EU IN COMPETING AGAINST CHINA, THE USA AND THE WORLD A. Illarionov Institute of Economic Analysis 3 rd European Resource Bank Meeting.

Why are some countries less developed? 9P November 15 th LO – To be able to give reasons why some countries are poorer than others.

The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation A presentation in the context of institutions and coordination failure.

Lecturer’s desk Physics- atmospheric Sciences (PAS) - Room 201 s c r e e n Row A Row B Row C Row D Row E Row F Row G Row H Row A

April 1 st, Bellringer-April 1 st, 2015 Video Link Worksheet Link

Multivariate Data. Descriptive techniques for Multivariate data In most research situations data is collected on more than one variable (usually many.

Chapter Thirteen Bivariate Correlation and Regression Chapter Thirteen.

1/15/2016Marketing Research2  How do you test the covariation between two continuous variables?  Most typically:  One independent variable  and: 

Each U.S. State has been renamed with a country whose GDP is very similar; adding up the GDPs of all the countries names would equal the GDP of the U.S.

BPS - 3rd Ed. Chapter 51 Regression. BPS - 3rd Ed. Chapter 52 u To describe the change in Y per unit X u To predict the average level of Y at a given.

Lecture 8 Sections Objectives: Bivariate and Multivariate Data and Distributions − Scatter Plots − Form, Direction, Strength − Correlation − Properties.

Measuring Economies GNP, GDP And “per capita”. Measuring the Size of the Economy GNP & GDP measure the size of the Economy. GNP or “Gross National Product”

Measuring the Spread of Management Ideas and Methods Stuart Umpleby, Lucy Lim, Naveen Hariprasad, and Saadia Khilji The George Washington University.

Chapter 2.4 Paired Data and Scatter Plots. Scatter Plots A scatter plot is a graph of ordered pairs of data values that is used to determine if a relationship.

Economic Inequality and Development Barbara Liberda University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economics 18 October 2011.

Top 12 Countries ranking countries by different measures.

Introduction Many problems in Engineering, Management, Health Sciences and other Sciences involve exploring the relationships between two or more variables.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 1 On the Accuracy of UK GDP Data Presentation to the Royal Statistical Society Kevin.

Inference about the slope parameter and correlation

Using the information in the plot, can you suggest what needs to be done in a country to increase the life expectancy? Explain. Perhaps.

Multivariate Data.

Globalisation…. What is globalisation? Definition of globalisation ‘The ability to produce any goods (or service) anywhere in the world, using raw.

What makes country get more medals in Olympic?

Cautions about Correlation and Regression

Elementary Statistics

A. Illarionov Institute of Economic Analysis

GROWTH IN THE OPEN ECONOMY

Presentation transcript:

METP - Statistics World Cup Elena Arias Marie-Paule Laurent Yvik Swan Solvay Business School Université Libre de Bruxelles Fall 2007

GS Report |2 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002)

GS Report |3 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002)

GS Report |4 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002) What is the relationship between the economy and the football result? What do you conclude from this graph and from the regression line?

GS Report |5 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002) Extract of GS report

GS Report |6 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002) Comment 1: –The presented model tries to explain country wealth by the level of its national football team. The results seem to show the existence of a positive relationship. –Underlying economic theory: a good FIFA ranking leads to such passion of the country’s population that people increase their consumption and/or their productivity, which implies the growth of national wealth!!!! –It is more intuitive to reverse the causality link and to consider that the performance of the football team depends on the average wealth of the population. Comment 2: –The technique applied to the data: linear regression is applied on the variables in order to determine the link between them. –But, it is not because some software draws a straight line through a cloud of points that the results are automatically sensible. –Here: the observation of the distribution of the countries in the graph shows a dual structure with, on the one hand, countries with a high level of wealth (European Union, United States and Japan) and, on the other hand, other countries.

GS Report |7 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002)

GS Report |8 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002) Our own analysis Empirical study: –April 2002 FIFA ranking ( –2000 GDP per capita in USD ( Objective: Explain the FIFA ranking by the GDP per capita and not the opposite. Methodology: Separate the countries into two subgroups. –Group 1 (EU, USA and Japan): better average ranking and negative correlation between performance and wealth. In this subgroup, the “poorer” countries are, the better the ranking. –Group 2 (all others countries): the ranking is lower on average but no clear structure appears. The graph presents the average ranking for both groups as well as the estimated regression line for “rich” countries. The regression line for “poor” countries is not drawn, as the dependence is not confirmed. The dotted line is the one given in the Goldman Sachs study.

GS Report |9 Goldman Sachs Report The World Cup and Economy (2002) Our own analysis