Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions Michael Lepech (PI) Martin Fischer (co-PI) Forest Flager John Basbagill

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Case Study: Multi-family Residential Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions 2 CIFE TAC 2013

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Conceptual Design Problem SCOPE Housing buildings: substructure ● shell ● interiors ● services OBJECTIVES (1)Minimize life-cycle cost (2)Minimize carbon footprint VARIABLES (1) Number of buildings: (2) Number of stories: (3) Building footprint: H-shape (4) Building orientation: 0-360° CONSTRAINTS (1)Gross Floor Area (GFA): 15,000m 2 (2)Building width (a, b and f): >15m (3)Distance to site perimeter: >20m (4)Distance between building: >20m ab c d e f

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC CURRENT INDUSTRY PRACTICE 3 design alternatives evaluated 162 man hours required Design Exploration Today: Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions Is this sufficient? DESIGN SPACE 1.46 E 11 possible design alternatives

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Introduction to MDO CONSTRUCTION COST DProfiler GEOMETRY MODEL DProfiler OPERATIONAL COST eQUEST, CostLab EMBODIED IMPACT SimaPro OPERATIONAL IMPACT eQUEST, SimaPro OPTIMIZER Genetic Algorithm “Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) involves the formalization of design iteration and coordination to leverage computer processing power to systematically search the design space.” - MDO Technical Committee, AIAA (1991)

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC MDO Case Study Results Carbon Footprint (met kilotons CO 2 e) Life-Cycle Cost (USD, Millions) KEY Baseline Selected Designs 3 Buildings, 5 Stories 3 Buildings, 6 Stories 3 Buildings, 7 Stories 3 Buildings, 8 Stories 4 Buildings, 5 Stories 4 Buildings, 6 Stories 4 Buildings, 7 Stories 4 Buildings, 8 Stories Infeasible Solution X +

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC MDO Case Study Results Carbon Footprint (met kilotons CO 2 e) Life-Cycle Cost (USD, Millions) KEY Baseline Selected Designs 3 Buildings, 5 Stories 3 Buildings, 6 Stories 3 Buildings, 7 Stories 3 Buildings, 8 Stories 4 Buildings, 5 Stories 4 Buildings, 6 Stories 4 Buildings, 7 Stories 4 Buildings, 8 Stories Infeasible Solution X

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC CIFE MDO Research KBZ NATIONAL STADIUM Scope:Steel roof structure Savings:USD $4M (19%) Support: 2009 CIFE Seed, Autodesk PAST EDUCATIONAL BUILDING Scope:Steel superstructure Savings:USD $570K (21%) Support: Skanska GOVERNMENT OFFICE BUILDING Scope:Structural system Savings:USD $1.7M (7%) Support: 2012 CIFE Seed, Beck MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL Scope:Structural system Savings:USD $4M (19%) Support: 2009 CIFE Seed, Autodesk CURRENT MDO class under development Ongoing MDO research

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Conventional vs. MDO Design Process CONVENTIONAL MDO - building massing - orientation - system type - system topology - component sizing - building massing - orientation - system type - system topology - component sizing CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT new information DETAIL new information

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Research Question Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions 10 Copyright  CIFE TAC 2013 How can automated design exploration be leveraged to support sequential design decisions?

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Research Goals Q1: What decisions are most important? Develop a decision support methodology to provide stakeholders with clear and quantitative information about: Influence (%) Design Decision 0 10 Glazing Thickness Cladding Material WWRWall R-value Height 5 A: Analyze relative influence that different decisions have on performance criteria of interest.

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Research Goals Q2: What is the impact of the decision on product performance? A: Analyze how a given decision affects the distribution of possible solutions. No decisions made 1. Six floors 2. Orientation = 323° 1. Six floors 2. Orientation = 323° 3. Steel cladding Impact (kg CO 2 e) Probability of Occurrence (%) k 250k350k450k KEY

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Research Goals Q3: What are the synergies between design decisions? A: Analyze the relationship between coupled decisions E E E E 5 Number of Buildings Number of Floors Length a (m) Carbon Footprint (kg CO 2 e) Life Cycle Cost ($) Building Orientation (deg) Length b (m) Length d (m) Length c (m) Length e (m) Preference Shading: Worst Best

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Research Methods 1)Formalize design problem and process 2)Develop design space analysis methods - Design of Experiments (DoE) - Optimization 3)Develop data visualization methods 4)Implement decision support methodology - Massively parallel (cloud) computing environment

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Research Validation 1)Parallel design charrettes / case studies - Subjects: students and practitioners - Groups: conventional (control) / decision support (intervention) 2)Sample metrics - solution quality / feasibility - design cycle duration - total design cycles - use of data visualization methods

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Schedule TaskTimeline 1: DEVELOP DESIGN SPACE ANALYSIS METHODS Summer : DEVELOP DATA VISUALIZATION METHODSFall : IMPLEMENT DECISION SUPPORT METHODFall : DESIGN CHARETTESWinter JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS Spring 2014

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Research Impact Schedule Performance Cost Conformance / Sustainability dramatically reduced design cycle time many alternatives evaluated quickly better performing designs identified IMPROVED TIME TO MARKET COST CONFORMING, SUSTAINABLE DESIGNS early quantitative assessment of quality risks CIFE 2015 Goals

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Opportunities for Industry Participation Software Providers Owners / Designers / Contractors access to software / training partner on case studies IDENTIFY NEW TECHNOLOGY / METHODS FOR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT USE OF METHODS / TECHNOLOGY TO SUPPORT BUSINESS OBJECTIVES partner to incorporate your software into MDO environment participate in design charrettes Learn from new methods developed and user testing

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC 2013 Questions? 19

Copyright  2013 Using MDO to Support Sequential Design Decisions CIFE TAC Budget Item DescriptionCost Post ‐ Doctorate Researcher Flager, Forest$26,179 Graduate Student Research Assistant TBD$45,626 TOTAL AMOUNT REQUESTED$71,805