A dynamic stochastic food web model for the Barents Sea Benjamin Planque and Ulf Lindstrøm

A “reference” ecosystem model Food Web Mass balanced Fluctuations in the Barents Sea Ecosystem state: are they part of the ‘natural dynamics’ or are we seeing regime shifts? A “reference” ecosystem model Food Web Mass balanced Constraints: physiology & life span Stochastic Simple, fast, transparent “Null” model to test ecosystem metrics for resilience Cop. Euph. Phytopl. Cod Minke whales Capelin

First results Trophic functional relationships Temporal dynamics Diet analysis

First results Bottom-up Top-down Bottom-up Top-down Alternance of periods? Top-down Bottom-up Top-down

Conclusions Prototype for the Barents Sea Set a reference for expected ecosystem properties under a minimal set of assumptions Can be used as an experimental tool to evaluate resilience of the Barents Sea Ecosystem to climate and fishing perturbations