Drought in the Horn of Africa: Context, Consequences and Strategy for Humanitarian Response

Affected populations in the Horn of Africa CountryPopulation at risk Population in need of emergency assistance Djibouti150,000 at risk 88,000 EritreaFigure unavailable Up to 500,000 Ethiopia9.8 million (including 7.2m under PSNP) 1.7 million Kenya3.5 million Somalia2.1 million1.7 million

Main Features of Drought in the HOA  Increasing frequency of drought episodes with shorter recovery periods: 1980, 1984, 1989, 1992, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2004 and  Drought is no longer a slow-onset disaster but a chronic emergency

Characteristics of drought affected areas in the Horn of Africa  Arid or semi-arid areas mainly devoted to Pastoralism or marginal irrigated crop farming  Worst affected areas are far away from political and economic centre = marginalization. These areas are often lowest on the political & development agenda and the population typically has low political representation at central levels  High poverty rates; most development indicators are far below national averages; poor roads and communications infrastructure; health and education services poor and under-resourced  Increasing population pressure (livestock and humans) and carrying capacity of the land is reducing

DRAFT

Djibouti  Delayed onset of the October-February (Heys/Dadaac) season in addition to consecutive years of failed rains  Water sources drying; poor water management  Heavy livestock losses (up to 80% in some areas)  Worsening food security in all 6 rural districts including peripheral areas of the capital  Estimated 88,000 people are currently affected with approximately 150,000 at risk  Affected population dependent on relief aid and support from family members in urban areas Heavy livestock losses (up to 80% in some areas)  Coping mechanisms over burdened  Movement of population away from worst affected areas

Eritrea  Lack of comprehensive information for Eritrea; results of GoE Crop and Food Assessment not yet released  Above average performance of the Kremti Rains in 2005 but recovery in pastoral areas (north Gash Barka and Anseba) requires successive seasons of good rain  Indications in January suggest that the Northern Red Sea and Southern Red Sea zones may be affected by severe drought conditions  Approximately 2/3 of the population required food aid in 2005; Suspension of GFD in ‘ except for 72,000 IDPs. Recent resumption of food distributions in Debub and southern Red Sea  Conscription policy limits human resource capacity for agricultural and income generating activities and affects humanitarian operations  Shift in GoE policy from GFD to FFW;policy shift ongoing at WFP  Transfer of ERREC to the Ministry of Labour and Human Welfare has been affecting coordination mechanisms between GoE and humanitarian partners

Ethiopia  Of the 2.6 million people estimated to be in need of emergency assistance, 1.7 million (69%) are located in the drought affected areas of Somali (1.5m) and Oromiya regions (155,000)  Approximately 7.2 million people are being assisted under the PSNP – this is expected to increase to 8.3 million in the 2 nd half of 2006  640,000 people require emergency water in Somali region and 100,000 in Borena  56,000 children are believed to be at risk of moderate and severe malnutrition  155 reported cases of measles and growing susceptibility due to malnutrition, low immunisation coverage and increased population movement. In 2000 measles was responsible for 20% of under five mortality. Nutritional surveys indicate U5MR of 3.9 deaths per 10,000 per day  Livestock losses of up to 60% of goats and sheep in worst affected area. 75% decrease in the value of livestock and substantial increase in the price of grain  Stress migration and growing insecurity (internally and cross border)

Kenya  Current emergency is the result of a succession of poor seasons due to declining rainfall trend over the last decade. Drought and poorly distributed rains have affected large areas of Kenya since 1999  Pastoral areas in the north and marginal agricultural areas of eastern province have been hardest hit Endemic poverty, low economic growth and high population growth compounds the loss of households assets and a much reduced household coping capacity.  80% of land mass and 6.5 million people highly drought-prone; ASALs chronically poor with 73,000 children under five and 7,200 pregnant and lactating women suffering from moderate to severe malnutrition  Estimated 4.5 million people lack access to reliable water sources; 500,000 dependent on water trucking  ASAL have the lowest primary school rates especially amongst girls (as low as 12% in some districts); increase in school drop outs.  Distress coping strategies include unseasonable out-migration, increased sales of assets, livestock and livestock products, move to urban areas in search of relief &/or alternative incomes

Somalia  Poor rainfall and widespread insecurity have led to a deterioration in the humanitarian situation, particularly in southern areas of the country  1.7 million classified as being in a state of Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, NOT including 400,000 IDPs.  Worst affected areas are Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba and areas of Bay and Bakool  Malnutrition rates already between 20% and 30% in worst affected areas Measles outbreaks reported in many areas  Livestock deaths up to 30% with potential to rise to 80% by April  600,000 people believed to be at moderate risk of famine  Insecurity causing additional stress on populations and impeding assistance  School closures and falling attendance in affected areas

Main consequences of drought in the HOA  Lack of water –for human consumption and for cooking food; severe dehydration  Failed crops and lack of pasture: lack of food for humans and animals  High morbidity and mortality rates;  Loss of pastoral livelihoods & household assets  Increase in malnutrition and disease for humans  and animals  Population and livestock movements across clan, ethnic, district and national borders  Increased risk of resource-based conflicts

Factors that reinforce drought impact  Repeated shocks erode coping capacities  Pervasive insecurity; heightened threats or reality of conflict  Growing sedentarization: dependence on relief  Diminishing carrying capacity of land and natural resources  Lack of development: chronic and escalating poverty: declining human development indicators  Socio-economic & political marginalization: poor access to health & education;  Poor socio-cultural understanding of drought affected populations

Cross-borderissues  Population movement is contributing to insecurity as competition for food and pasture increases  Impact on cross border informal trade  Trade between countries affected by changes in import and export policy in order to address shortfalls (e.g Ethiopia’s export ban on)  Abnormal movements of livestock and people, particularly between Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya  Long distances further contribute to the deterioration of livestock condition and reports from Ethiopia suggest that the biggest losses are being experienced among migratory herds

Cross-border issues cont..  Migratory movements have implications for those left behind (often women and children) as a loss of sources of meat and milk  Population movements towards water sources and pasture contribute to growing insecurity both internally and across borders (e.g. Kenya- Ethiopia, and Ethiopia-Somalia)  Regional nature of the drought limits coping mechanisms  Inequity of response on different sides of the border (pull-factors)  Increased competition for resources between crises in the region but also internationally

The Regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: Strategic Priorities  To save lives and restore livelihoods. Specifically to:- Provide effective and timely humanitarian assistance and ensure protection to populations affected by the current emergency Provide immediate livelihoods assistance, build resilience and reduce vulnerability in the medium term Support and reinforce national, regional and international efforts to foster sustainable development and mitigate against future crises.

The regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: sector objectives  Water and sanitation Ensure adequate and safe access to water for drought affected populations Reduce the risk of water contamination from point of collection to point of consumption  Food and livelihoods security Save lives and protect assets Improve food security and rebuild livelihoods to include alternative options Strengthen drought preparedness and response capacity

The regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: sector objectives  Health and nutrition Identify and address the main causes of mortality and morbidity taking health and nutrition care as close as possible to the affected populations. Strengthen the existing health and nutrition care system including surveillance and monitoring of the situation. Strengthen the capacity of communities and institutions in coping with health issues due to drought and empower populations on their human rights concerning health and nutrition problems.

The regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: sector objectives  Food aid Provide immediate and appropriate food assistance to save lives and protect the most vulnerable Use food to protect livelihoods and increase resilience to shocks. Support and reinforce sub-national, national and regional capacity to design, implement and monitor food-assistance activities.  Protection, human rights and rule of law Establish and implement regional and country protection strategies to enhance the protection environment.

The regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: sector objectives  Family shelter and non-food items Ensure availability of appropriate household items for affected populations.  Education Maintain enrolment for basic education Ensure minimum quality of education.  Security of staff and operations Enhance the security environment for humanitarian action.

The regional Common Humanitarian Action Plan: sector objectives  Economic recovery, infrastructure and environment Protect livelihoods and assets. Clearly identify and evaluate existing infrastructure in the region. Prevent further depletion of natural resources, contribute to environmental rehabilitation and facilitate sustainable use of resources.

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