The conceptual framework WP 8 SCENARIOS What is needed for planning is not a set of isolated trends, but multidimensional models that interrelate social, political, even cultural, along with the economics (Tofler:, 1985).

The system approach to the project  The project has to be understood as a system in which the nine work packages are like subsystems which alone they do not mean so much, but in relation to each other they have explanatory power. In sum, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Thus, workpackages 8 and 9 have to be built based on the others. WP9 WP8 All WP´s

Scenarios  Scenarios appear to be an attractive methodology to increase disciplinary integration and stakeholder participation, as they may facilitate an integrated discussion about river basin and national park management.  Utilizing past and present trends, scenarios attempt to see which factors might lead to likely futures.

Scenarios  Scenarios explore the space for human actions and interventions to shape the future  Scenarios provide options rather than predictions  Scenarios provide guidance to all actors and reduce uncertainty

Building scenarios  The scenarios have in common for their development : 1. The (independent) variables (current trends) 2. In relation to the IV…the Main drivers (intervening variables) 3. Livelihood and biodiversity (dependent variable) as an outcome in one given scenario.

Main elements for building scenarios

For our work… Changes that those drivers could generate on the key factor in one given scenario Vulnerability/or adaptation Livelihood and biodiversity as an outcome in one given scenario. Core factors in understanding dynamic and influencing changes Current trends Independent variables The main drivers What if in one given scenario The dependent variable

TYPE OF SCENARIOS BUSINESS AS USUAL FAST DEVELOPMENT ISOLATIONCRISIS

Methodological tools  Using focus group in scenario building

The result…  Link to WP9… what kind of policy needs to be formulate in order to reduce vulnerability and increase adaptation WP 8WP 9

Framework Independent variable Intervening variable Explanatory factorDependent variable Current trendsMain drivers What are the expected consequences or changes? Core elements of these changes How is the vulnerability / adaptation capabilities Changes in livelihoods and biodiversity (how the stakeholders will behave in one given scenario). Expected vulnerability/or adaptation of people and ecosystems to these changes in one given scenario

Independent variable Intervening variable Explanatory factorDependent variable Current trends Main drivers What are the expected consequences or changes? What factors can be decisive in changing? How is the vulnerability / adaptation capabilities Changes in livelihoods and biodiversity Public investment in the basin Dan construction (PH Diquís) Flooding areas Urban growth Middle term employment growth Population displacement Demand for new goods and services New productive activities Case study reports, survey analysis and focus groups Analytical framework

Reference  Gooch, G How to improve informed public participation in river basin management. ochparticipationwfd.pdf. ochparticipationwfd.pdf  Gooch, G Qualitative scenarios. Charter 4. In Integrated Transboundary Water Management in Theory and Practice.