Information Technology and the American Productivity Resurgence By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University May 13, 2008

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Presentation transcript:

Information Technology and the American Productivity Resurgence By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University May 13, The 2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic Performance Measures for Nations Washington, D.C. ~ May 12-17, 2008

Economic Growth in the Information Age INTRODUCTION: Prices of Information Technology ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices and the Cost of Capital WORLD GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME: The New Research Agenda

THE INFORMATION AGE: Faster, Better, Cheaper! MOORE'S LAW: The number of transistors on a chip doubles every 24 months. (The Tukwila Processor to be released later in 2008 will have more than two billion transistors.) SIA Annual Report 2005: In 1978, a commercial flight between New York and Paris cost $900 and took seven hours. If the principles of Moore's Law were applied to the airline industry, that flight would now cost about a penny and take less than one second. INVENTION OF THE TRANSISTOR: Development of Semiconductor Technology. THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT: Memory Chips; Logic Chips.

Source: No Exponential is Forever, Gordon Moore ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/Gordon_Moore_ISSCC_ pdf

HOLDING QUALITY CONSTANT Matched Models and Hedonics SOFTWARE: Prepackaged, Custom, and Own-Account. SEMICONDUCTOR PRICE INDEXES: Memory and Logic Chips. COMPUTER PRICE INDEXES: The BEA-IBM Collaboration. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT: Terminal, Switching, and Transmission.

Relative Prices of Computers and Semiconductors, All price indexes are divided by the output price index ComputersMemoryLogic

ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices, Investment, and Productivity. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. INPUT SHARES OF IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION: IT vs. Non-IT Capital Services.

Annual Contribution (%) Non-IT Capital ServicesIT Capital Services U.S. Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares

World Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares

G7 Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares

Developing and Transition Economy Contribution of Information Technology Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares

WORLD GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth. LABOR INPUT GROWTH: Hours Worked and Labor Quality. TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY: IT-Production versus Non-IT Production. SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP.

Annual percentage growth rates Annual Contribution (%) Non-college LaborCollege LaborNon-IT CapitalIT CapitalAggregate TFP Sources of U.S. Economic Growth

Non-IT IndustriesIT-Using IndustriesIT-Producing Industries U.S. Industry Contributions to Productivity Growth Annual percentage growth rates with Domar weights

Sources of World Economic Growth Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates

Sources of G7 Economic Growth Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates

Sources of Growth for Developing and Transition Economies Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates

INTERMEDIATE RELEASE: November 6, EU ECONOMIES: U.S., Australia, Canada, Japan, and Korea EU KLEMS PROJECT COMPLETION DATE: June 30, 2008 SOURCES OF DATA: Labor, Capital, and Intermediate Inputs

IT PRODUCTION: Permanent vs. Transitory Changes IT UTILIZATION: Trade and Services to the Fore WORLD GROWTH OUTLOOK: Potential for Growth Unchanged THE U.S. AND THE WORLD ECONOMY: Where Do We Stand? THE NEW AGENDA: