Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Model Set-up and Nesting Approach Cindy Bruyère NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Regional climate change over southern South America: evolution of mean climate and extreme events Silvina A. Solman CIMA (CONICET-UBA) Buenos Aires ARGENTINA.

Advertisements

1 Severe Weather Response to Climate Change: The Expected and the Unexpected Regional Climate Research Section NCAR Earth System Laboratory NCAR is Sponsored.

Assessing High-Impact Weather Variations and Changes Utilizing Extreme Value Theory NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Tropical Cyclone Intensities: Recent observational studies and simulated response to CO2-induced warming Thomas R. Knutson NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics.

Suzana J. Camargo Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University ANALYSIS OF 20 TH CENTURY ATLANTIC HURRICANE POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND TROPICAL CYCLONE.

1 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George.

RPSEA Overview and Project Status NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially.

The causes of extreme rainfall in East Africa: insights from observed data and GCMs Emily Black, Julia Slingo and Ken Sperber.

Dynamical Downscaling of CCSM Using WRF Yang Gao 1, Joshua S. Fu 1, Yun-Fat Lam 1, John Drake 1, Kate Evans 2 1 University of Tennessee, USA 2 Oak Ridge.

Recent performance statistics for AMPS real-time forecasts Kevin W. Manning – National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR Earth System Laboratory Mesoscale.

Response of the Atmosphere to Climate Variability in the Tropical Atlantic By Alfredo Ruiz–Barradas 1, James A. Carton, and Sumant Nigam University of.

Determining the Local Implications of Global Warming Professor Clifford Mass, Eric Salathe, Patrick Zahn, Richard Steed University of Washington.

1 An Overview of the NARCCAP WRF Simulations L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory NARCCAP Users Meeting NCAR, Boulder, CO April ,

1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Simulations of Floods and Droughts in the Western U.S. Under Climate Change L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory US CLIVAR/NCAR ASP Researcher.

The case of polar lows Hans von Storch 13 and Matthias Zahn 2 1. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany. 2. Environmental.

Title Meeting Name/Presenter Date. OVERARCHING GOAL To develop a useful downscaled regional climate dataset to enable a variety of sectors to assess the.

Sensitivity Studies James Done NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially.

+ Best Practices in Regional Climate Modeling Dr. Michel d. S. Mesquita Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Research

Russ Bullock 11 th Annual CMAS Conference October 17, 2012 Development of Methodology to Downscale Global Climate Fields to 12km Resolution.

Development of a downscaling prediction system Liqiang Sun International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

"Retrospective simulation and analysis of changing SE Asian high-resolution typhoon wind and wave statistics" Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research.

1 Climate Ensemble Simulations and Projections for Vietnam using PRECIS Model Presented by Hiep Van Nguyen Main contributors: Mai Van Khiem, Tran Thuc,

1 Severe Weather Response to Climate Change: A Transient Increase then Saturation? Regional Climate Research Section NCAR Earth System Laboratory NCAR.

Modulation of eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden-Julian oscillation. (Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2000: J. Climate, 13, )

Comparison of Different Approaches NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially.

Precipitation Intensity Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé.

Impact Of Surface State Analysis On Estimates Of Long Term Variability Of A Wind Resource Dr. Jim McCaa

Hurricane-Climate Research of Relevance to RPSEA NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this.

Dynamical downscaling of historical and projected winter precipitation in the Wasatch Range (for the CI-WATER project) Court Strong, Jim Steenburgh, Trevor.

Importance to the Off-Shore Energy Industry James Done Chad Teer, Wikipedia NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR.

Simulation of Present-Day Climate in the Caribbean using PRECIS RCM M Mr. Arnoldo Bezanilla Marlot.

Regional Models in CCSM CCSM/POP/ROMS: Regional Nesting and Coupling Jon Wolfe (CSEG) Mariana Vertenstein (CSEG) Don Stark (ESMF)

Simulating Rainfall Extremes in South America: Sensitivity to remote and local forcing Anji Seth and Maisa Rojas International Research Institute for Climate.

ROMS as a Component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Enrique Curchitser, IMCS/Rutgers Kate Hedstrom, ARSC/UAF Bill Large, Mariana Vertenstein,

Downscaling tropical cyclones from global re-analysis and scenarios: Statistics of multi-decadal variability of TC activity in E Asia Hans von Storch,

Identifying Tropical Cyclones in Model Simulations Asuka Suzuki-Parker NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored.

On Recent Research Developments at NC State University Relevant to the MSU NSF Biocomplexity Project ‘An Integrated Analysis of Regional Land- Climate.

1 Response of Australian Temperature Extremes to Climate Variability and Change Regional Climate Research Section NCAR Earth System Laboratory NCAR is.

Possible North Atlantic extratropical cyclone activity in a warmer climate Lanli Guo William Perrie Zhenxia Long Montreal 2012 Bedford Institute of Oceanography,

NARCCAP WRF Simulations L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory NARCCAP Users Meeting February , 2008 Boulder, CO.

Evapotranspiration Estimates over Canada based on Observed, GR2 and NARR forcings Korolevich, V., Fernandes, R., Wang, S., Simic, A., Gong, F. Natural.

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, Kristen Corbosiero, and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points: Steve.

Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS NOAA/NWS/NCEP October.

Application of T382 CFS Forecasts for Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction J. Schemm, L. Long, S. Saha and S. Moorthi NOAA/NWS/NCEP October 21, 2008 The.

John Mejia and K.C. King, Darko Koracin Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 4th NARCCAP Workshop, Boulder, CO, April,

ESSL Nested Regional Climate Simulations with WRF Bill Kuo 1 C. Bruyere 1, J. Done 1, G. Holland 1, R. Leung 2, Y. Liu 1,3, S. Tulich 1, A. Suzuki 4 1.

GCM simulations for West Africa: Validation against observations and projections for future change G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A. Adedoyin, A. Garba,

Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Rick Steed UW Yongxin Zhang CIG, NCAR Cliff Mass UW Regional Climate Modeling and Projected.

Multidecadal simulations of the Indian monsoon in SPEEDY- AGCM and in a coupled model Annalisa Bracco, Fred Kucharski and Franco Molteni The Abdus Salam.

Hurricanes and Global Warming Kerry Emanuel Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Do we / why do we want to develop an ASM? Climate working group for WRF – workshop on model developments for climate studies with WRF (summary of.

Institute for Coastal Research of GKSS Research Center Germany Changing statistics of polar lows and typhoons in the past and foreseeable future. Hans.

1 Application of a Tropical Cyclone Index to Climate Modeling Downscaling Regional Climate Research Section NCAR Earth System Laboratory NCAR is Sponsored.

ESSL Holland, CCSM Workshop 0606 Predicting the Earth System Across Scales: Both Ways Summary:Rationale Approach and Current Focus Improved Simulation.

R.W. Arritt for the NARCCAP Team December 2006

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NCAR

Overview of Downscaling

Daylength Local Mesoscale Winds Chinook Winds (Foehn) Loma, MT: January 15, 1972, the temperature rose from -54 to 49°F (-48 to 9°C), a 103°F (58°C)

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation on hurricane forecast

Madeline Frank EAS 4480 Course Project April 2016

Moetasim Ashfaq and Noah S Diffenbaugh

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Validation of GCM, and the need of High resolution atmospheric and hydrological model Vicente Barros and Mariano Re San José de Costa Rica 28 May 2003.

Climate and hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin from the High Asia Refined Analysis David Pritchard, Hayley Fowler, Nathan Forsythe, Greg O’Donnell, András.

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

NWP Strategy of DWD after 2006 GF XY DWD Feb-19.

Access and visualization of theTwentieth Century Reanalysis dataset

Decadal prediction in the Pacific

Presentation transcript:

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Model Set-up and Nesting Approach Cindy Bruyère NCAR Earth System Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR is Sponsored by NSF and this work is partially supported by the Willis Research Network and the Research Program to Secure Energy for America

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Two-way nested domain 12 km Over NA Basin 45S - 45N 36 km resolution 51 levels 10 mb TOA NNRP input data Reynolds SST data Periodic EW boundary Phase 1: Tropical Channel

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Tropical Channel: Results

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 WRF 12 km WRF 36 km Image by Steve CCSM ~ 150 km Nested Regional Climate Model Setup

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Nested Regional Climate Model Setup CCSM3: –One Current Climate member ( ) –3 ensemble members from under two A2 and one A1B scenarios (IPCC-AR4) NRCM: –1 ensemble member from , and under A2 scenario at 36 km (complete), and 12 km grid spacing (in progress) –No nudging Statistical downscaling of CCSM3 to fill in intermediate periods

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Cat 3 Hurricane October 2046 Track density of model tropical and extratropical storms Jan-Dec 1995 Regional Model: Results

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Shear in the Model (avg Aug-Oct) Channel NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis NRCM

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis CCSM Similar Bias in CCSM

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Possible Causes of High Shear CCSM exhibits same bias High shear is due to strong Westerly flow at 200mb Entire tropics has warm bias at upper-levels in CCSM, inducing westerly wind anomaly Also an El Niño-like SST anomaly → alters Walker Circulation → contributes to westerly wind anomaly

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Sensitivity Studies NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis NRCM + channel configuration NRCM + Reynolds SST NRCM

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA Describe 6-hourly CCSM data for entire simulation ( ) as an average annual cycle plus a perturbation term: CCSM = CCSM + CCSM’ (1) - using a 20-year averaging period ( ), - applied to variables: U,V,Z,T,RH,Surface T and PMSL Do the same for NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis data: NNRP = NNRP + NNRP’ (2) Replace CCSM with NNRP: CCSMc = NNRP + CCSM’ (3) Base climate provided by NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis data and the weather and climate change signal provided by CCSM Bias Correction

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Shear after Adjustment NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Adjusted N. A. Regional Climate NRCM

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Regional Model: New Results

Bruyere Model Setup RPSEA 0310 Conclusions Tropical Channel runs developed storms in the MDR, although fewer than observed Running NRCM directly forced with CCSM output resulted in no storms in MDR –Strong bias in shear and SST linked with this result Bias corrected CCSM allowed development of storms in MDR Next stage is the completion of the 12km runs