2013 Spring Weather Outlook MARAC Region V Meeting April 24, 2013 Cindy Bean Meteorologist National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Joaquin Valley – Hanford CA weather.gov/hanford

Rainfall Season 2012 – 2013 Seasonal RainfallSeasonal Rainfall –Fresno and Bakersfield – 51% of normal –Merced – 65% of normal Since Jan 1Since Jan 1 –Merced and Fresno - near 32% of normal –Bakersfield – 57% of normal AprilApril –Merced – 57% of normal –Fresno and Bakersfield – 11% of normal Where do we stand?

Since Jan 1 Near to slightly above Normal Well Below Normal

Since April 1 Above Normal Well Below Normal

Current 5-Station Index CURRENT YEAR Day of The Year Precipitation Amount

Current Reservoir Levels

Jan Seasonal Water Supply Volume Forecast

Winter Predictions for 2013 …What about El Nino? “ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.” --NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Sea Surface Temperatures January 2013 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Slightly Below Normal

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Sea Surface Temperatures - April Slightly negative temperature anomalies have gradually warmed to near normal along the Equator – clearly an ENSO neutral state

April 26-May 2 Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability 2013 Spring Predictions Favors Dry Strongly Favors Warmer than normal

2013 Spring Predictions Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability May 2013 Favors Warmer than normal Equal Chances

May through July Precipitation Probability Temperature Probability 2013 Spring/Summer Predictions Normal Normal

Potential Impacts Reservoirs/Water Supply Below normal snowpack Lower than normal Spring Runoff Less water for agriculture Drought Drought will persist or intensify Last year was dry in many parts of the region. The current water year is below normal over much of the area. The threat of long-term drought impacts is real.

Potential Impacts Fire Weather Fuels curing earlier than normal Fire season starting 4 weeks earlier than normal The possibility of far drier than average fuels coupled with above normal temperatures may result in above normal large fire potential by mid-June into July. Current Fuels are approaching critical. 10 hour Live FM at 78% hr with large death rate.

Climate Prediction Center (outlooks updated 3 rd Thursday of every month) cpc.ncep.noaa.gov NWS Hanford Web Page weather.gov/hanford weather.gov/hanford Find us on Facebook and Twitter! Don Florence – Mariposa County OES – For More Information…