North Slope Rapid Ecoregional Assessment A Bureau of Land Management Project North Slope Borough Planning Commission Barrow October 30, 2014

Contents of this presentation A quick review of the projectA quick review of the project Various players in the projectVarious players in the project Your roleYour role Progress so far – examples of productsProgress so far – examples of products Our future planOur future plan

Science Integration Project-level Monitoring for Adaptive Management Ecoregional Direction Field Implementation Rapid & Other Ecoregional Assessments Landscape- scale & other Inventories AIM- Monitoring at multiple scales Local-scale assessment, inventory, and monitoring BLM’s Landscape Approach

What is an REA? REAs : Identify things of value in the environment and how they are changing over time, and what may be causing that change Identify things of value in the environment and how they are changing over time, and what may be causing that change Focus on large areas and look at the really big picture instead of a particular lake or river Focus on large areas and look at the really big picture instead of a particular lake or river

What does an REA provide? REAs do not make decisions or allocate resources They provide information and tools for land managers Current status of things of value in the environmentCurrent status of things of value in the environment Future status (25, 50 years out)Future status (25, 50 years out) Identify data gaps and science needsIdentify data gaps and science needs Suggestions for land managers on how they might use this informationSuggestions for land managers on how they might use this information

North Slope Ecoregion Assessment Area

Roles and responsibilities Project Team A team of scientists and researchers from UA Alaska Natural Heritage Program (AKNHP),Alaska Natural Heritage Program (AKNHP), Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), andInstitute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), and Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP)Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) Facilitator from Margaret J. King and Associates. Assessment Management Team (AMT) A team of land managers and experts in land management from various federal and state agencies that guide the project Technical Team (Tech Team) Experts in various relevant science fields that evaluate and advise on the technical aspects

Assessment Components Management Questions (MQs) Conservation Elements (CEs) Change Agents (CAs)

These are the things of value in the environment. They can be: Conservation elements (CEs) On landIn water Environment and associated conditions Land cover (Ex: coastal plain) Aquatic cover (Ex: shallow connected lakes) Individual speciesEx: CaribouEx: Arctic grayling

Change agents They change the status of the conservation elements Five primary agents of change: Human uses Human uses Climate change Climate change Fire Fire Permafrost Permafrost Invasive species Invasive species

How it all works Conservation ElementChange Agent REAs collect and compile data, and estimate these impacts Land managers, at all levels, can use this information in their decisions Management Question

Phase I Initiation Phase II Preliminary management questions Establish Assessment Management Team and technical team Assessment Work Plan Statements of work Establish Contracts and Agreements  Conceptual Ecoregional Model  Management questions (MQs)  Conservation elements (CEs)  Change agents (CAs)  Conceptual Ecoregional Model  Management questions (MQs)  Conservation elements (CEs)  Change agents (CAs) Recommend Potential Datasets Task 2 – 2 Months Recommend Methods, Models, and Tools Task 3 – 3 Months Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Work Plan (REAWP) Task 4 – 2 Months Task 1 – 3 Months Compile and Generate “Source” Datasets Task 5 – 3 Months  Conduct Analyses  Generate Findings  Conduct Analyses  Generate Findings Task 6 – 5 Months Prepare REA Documents Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total Completed Process Overview

Discovering and compiling data Multi-step process of identifying, evaluating, and compiling useful data to answer the MQs. Compiled data from different sources: Research organizations and individual researchers Research organizations and individual researchers Government agencies at all levels Government agencies at all levels

Data ProviderData TypeSpecies NatureServeRange maps - spatialAll terrestrial species AK Gap Analysis ProjectDistribution Models and occurrence records - spatial All terrestrial species USFWS, Migratory Bird Management Avian Survey Data - spatialWillow Ptarmigan, Greater White-fronted Goose, raptors National Park ServiceRange maps and occurrence records - spatial Caribou, Lapland Longspur University of Alaska MuseumOccurrence records - spatialAll terrestrial species Toolik Lake Field StationOccurrence records - spatialPasserines ABR Inc.Occurrence records - spatialArtic fox, caribou North Slope Borough Wildlife Department Occurrence records and reports – spatial Arctic fox, caribou BLMRange maps and occurrence records - spatial Raptors, caribou Alaska Department of Fish and Game Distribution models - spatialCaribou Data Sources for Terrestrial Fine-Filter CEs

Raptor concentration in riparian areas

Source: ADF&G, NSB, BLM, CPAI, and ABR in NPRA EIS 2013 Seasonal use of habitat – Teshekpuk caribou herd

Data Source: Platte, B unpubl. data. Migratory Bird Management, USFWS. Density map for Greater white-fronted Goose

Distribution model for Lapland Longspur

Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled historical datasets: Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771 m CRU TS Historical Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1 Historical Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1 Historical Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771 m CRU TS 3.0 / 3.1 Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning Modeled projected datasets: Alaska Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Snow-day Fraction 771 m CMIP3/AR4 Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Total Precipitation 771m AR Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Total Precipitation 771m AR Projected Decadal Averages of Monthly Mean Temperatures 771 AR4 Projected Decadal Averages of Annual Mean Temperatures 771m AR4 Projected Decadal Averages of Seasonal Mean Temperatures 771m AR4 Projected Day of Freeze 771 m AR4 Projected Day of Thaw 771 m AR4 Projected Length of Growing Season 771 m AR4 Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab/SNAP Projected permafrost variables ( ) AR5, 5 top models, 5 model average Mean Annual Ground Temperature (MAGT) Active Layer Thickness (ALT) Projected ( ) ALFRESCO outputs Fire return interval Vegetation shifts Projected Alaska Climate-Biome Shift 2 KM ( ) Cliome shifts Variability assessments A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Temperature A2 2km 5 Model Decadal Standard Deviation Precipitation Other data Water temperature and snow depth data (IMIQ) Data sources for Climate as a change agent

Most species of plants and animals are highly sensitive to the length of the growing season. Warm season length is the number of days between the estimated day when the average temperature crosses the freezing point in the spring, and the day when it crossed that point in the fall. Climate as a change agent - Climate as a change agent - Warm season length

Values are averaged across watersheds (5 th level HUCs) surrounding communities. Error bars represent maximum and minimum values (for 771m pixels) within those watersheds. Note that variability across watersheds is much greater in mountainous areas. Warm season length by community

Erosion Population Employment Energy Income Language Vital Statistics Education State Federal Local/Regional Location US Army Corps of Engineers UA Census Bureau Alaska Department of Labor Alaska Bureau of Vital Statistics Alaska Department of Education North Slope Borough Planning Department Alaska Housing Finance Commission Institute of Social and Economic Research Linear features Block features Bureau of Economic Analysis National Center for Education Statistics Data sources for human activities

Federal (NPS, USFWS, BLM): 180,000 sq. km. State (selected, patent): 53,000 sq. km. Native (selected and patent): 25,000 sq. km. Human footprint: Communities, Camps and Cabins in the North Slope

What are the measurable and perceived impacts of development on subsistence harvest of caribou? (Fish)? Source Dataset Intermediate Results Final Result Operator Acronyms: NOS: North Slope Conten t Analysi s Extract Targeted search Review and assessment Clip Oil and gas infrastructures shape files and tabular data Map identifying location of oil and gas infrastructures Summary report identifying perceived impacts of development on subsistence harvest of caribou Literature (Reports, Peer-reviewed articles, ADF&G, NSB, MMS/BOEM) Themes (Areas of concerns used as key terms) Perceived impacts of development on subsistence harvest of caribou Subsistence Advisory Panel (Meeting minutes, Issues and recommendations) Literature Work definitions of subsistence and development Measurable dimensions of ‘development’ that impact ‘subsistence’ harvests of caribou Model identifying the measurable dimensions of development that impact subsistence harvests of caribou Data Discovery for variables (ADF&G, AKDOL, BEA, AEDG) Relationships between variables and total harvest Management Questions: TF3; AF2

Phase I Initiation Phase II Preliminary management questions Establish Assessment Management Team and technical team Assessment Work Plan Statements of work Establish Contracts and Agreements  Conceptual Ecoregional Model  Management questions (MQs)  Conservation elements (CEs)  Change agents (CAs)  Conceptual Ecoregional Model  Management questions (MQs)  Conservation elements (CEs)  Change agents (CAs) Recommend Potential Datasets Task 2 – 2 Months Recommend Methods, Models, and Tools Task 3 – 3 Months Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Work Plan (REAWP) Task 4 – 2 Months Task 1 – 3 Months Compile and Generate “Source” Datasets Task 5 – 3 Months  Conduct Analyses  Generate Findings  Conduct Analyses  Generate Findings Task 6 – 5 Months Prepare REA Documents Task 7 – 18 Mo. Total Completed What’s next…

Identify Focal Areas

Identify Risks & Opportunities

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Review Questions? Observations? Comments?