Descriptive Statistics

Policy Perceptions on Food Security: Abuse of Averages Source: Suryanarayana (2011) in India Development Report 2011

3 11 th Five Year Plan on Food Security Sustained solution to morbidity All the more so,  Stagnant incomes of the poor  Perverse changes in consumption patterns – decline in cereal share  Trend reduction in average cereal consumption Policy Perceptions on Food Security

4 11 th Five Year Plan on Food Security  Trend reduction in calorie intake – 8% in rural India - 3% in urban India between 1983 and  Average calorie intake fall increasingly short of official poverty line norms: 2400 kcals rural India 2100 kcals urban India Policy Perceptions on Food Security

Incidence of Poverty (million): Policy Perceptions on Food Security

Incidence of Calorie Deficiency (%) Norms: 2400 Kcal (Rural); 2100 Kcal (Urban) 6Policy Perceptions on Food Security

7 11 th Five Year Plan on Food Security  Consequences - Nutritional outcome parameters like low birth weights of newborn babies, anthropometric measures Policy Perceptions on Food Security

8 Review Estimates of consumption patterns  Averages at current prices conceal rather than reveal dynamics of change.  Reflect changes in relative prices and not real changes in consumption patterns.  Current price estimates exaggerate the extent of changes. Policy Perceptions on Food Security

9 Review  Cereal share, of course, has declined though not to the extent as revealed by current price estimates.  Per capita cereal expenditure increased for the bottom three decile groups but not quantities – dynamics of agricultural development.  Calorie intake increased for the bottom decile groups decreased for the top ones: convergence at a lower level. Policy Perceptions on Food Security

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11 Policy Perceptions on Food Security

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13Policy Perceptions on Food Security

14 Consequences Incidence of calorie deficiency increased by conventional norms but not so by convergence norms. Policy Perceptions on Food Security

What is the evidence by disaggregate population groups?

16Policy Perceptions on Food Security

17Policy Perceptions on Food Security

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19Policy Perceptions on Food Security

Incidence of Malnutrition: States 20Policy Perceptions on Food Security

Growth Rate A Story of Computations

Assess Growth performance pre- and post-reform Source: Government of India (2003): Economic Survey , p. S – 4. YearAnnual Growth Rate (%)in Per Capita Net National Product (at 1993/94 prices) Growth Rate

SECTORS * * * * * * Agriculture Forestry Fishing Agricultur e & Allied Activities Mining & Quarrying Primary Sector Registered Un registered Manufact uring Total Electricity,gas and and water supply Constructi on Secondary Sector Sectorwise GDP: Maharashtra (at prices) 23 Growth Rate

* * * * * * CAGR 1.1 Agriculture(4.84) (6.57) (21.17) Forestry(7.09)1.69(4.14)(2.62)(11.65)(0.35)8.23(0.42)(5.22)(2.54) 1.3 Fishing(5.21)4.31(3.42)3.04(11.48)12.09(1.28)(0.91)(12.24)(1.94) 1.Agriculture & Allied Activities(4.95) (6.84) (20.60) Mining & Quarrying (14.14)3.92 Primary Sector(4.50) (6.24) (20.29) Registered(20.38)(6.68) (0.14) Un registered7.67(2.99) (1.64) Manufacturing Total(13.52)(5.55) (0.55) Electricity,gas and and water supply17.00(20.26) (3.19) Construction(12.17)11.29(0.07) Secondary Sector(11.21)(3.12) Industry Sector(10.76)(2.88) Annual Growth rates 24 Growth Rate

Regression based Trend growth rates SECTORSTrend growth 1.1 Agriculture Forestry Fishing Agriculture & Allied Activities Mining & Quarrying5.19 Primary Sector Registered Un registered Manufacturing Total Electricity,gas and water supply Construction11.07 Secondary Sector7.58 Industry Sector Growth Rate