APCA Innovative Agr-Food Policies: Are They Out There? Daryll E. Ray University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center Global Agri-Food Forum 2009 Mexico City, Mexico September 17, 2009

APCA U.S. Farm Policy Historically there have been two major components of farm/commodity policy –Policy of Plenty: Ongoing public support to expand agricultural productive capacity through research, extension, and other means

APCA U.S. Ag Policy Did Not Start in 1932 Historic policy of plenty –Land distribution mechanisms – 1620 onward –Canals, railroads, farm-to-market roads –Land Grant Colleges – 1862, 1890, 1994 –Experiment Stations – 1887 –Cooperative Extension Service – 1914 –Federal Farm Credit Act This policy of plenty often resulted in production outstripping demand

APCA U.S. Farm Policy Historically there have been two major components of farm/commodity policy –Policy of Plenty: Ongoing public support to expand agricultural productive capacity through research, extension, and other means –Policy to Manage Plenty: Mechanisms to manage productive capacity and to compensate farmers for consumers’ accrued benefits of productivity gains

APCA We have dropped the “Managing Plenty” Part In the past farm policies included –Floor Price –Supply management tools –Price stabilization and reserves Over the years and especially since 1996 –All three were eliminated –Replaced with payment programs: Coupled to price and production (Deficiency Payments) and Decoupled (Direct Payments) Partially funded insurance schemes In 2008 added another revenue based insurance scheme (ACRE)

APCA Why Do We Have Chronic Price and Income Problems? The Logic is Straight Forward Over time, increasing amounts of land have come into production (Just a matter of where) Technology expands output faster than population and incomes expand demand Market failure: lower prices do not solve the problem

APCA Why Do We Have Chronic Price and Income Problems? The Logic is Straight Forward Little self-correction on the demand side –People will pay anything when food is short –Low prices do not induce people to eat more Little self-correction on the supply side –Farmers tend to produce on all their acreage –Few alternate uses for most cropland that will allow it to come back into production when needed

APCA Current U.S. Policy Can Cause Economic Crisis When supply outruns demand: –U.S. Commodity prices plummet –U.S. grain farmers become wards of the state –U.S. livestock producers, other grain users and farm input suppliers are subsidized –Low grain prices are triggered internationally –Many countries, especially developing countries, are unable to neutralize impacts of low prices –U.S. accused of dumping

APCA Current U.S. Policy Can Cause Economic Crisis When demand outstrips supply: –Short-Run Prices explode Livestock producers go bankrupt Food prices increase at alarming rates Countries hoard rather than export Additional millions become undernourished/starve in developing countries –Long-Run High prices bring big resources into ag production worldwide Prices crash again

APCA Food Is Different From caveman to present –First things first: Secure food to survive (also water) Last summer we relearned that: –“FOOD RULES”: Countries quickly take drastic measures to protect/secure food supplies –REMEMBER: With total free trade—same would be true With increased use of decoupled payments— same would be true With increased widespread use of insurance— same would be true

APCA Food Is Different National security issue—just like military security is to countries like the U.S. So … –Countries want to produce domestically as much of their food as possible –Political considerations: Need to feed the population Need an orderly exit of workers out of agriculture (eventually) –Not pushed out of agriculture but –Pulled out of agriculture as opportunities arise in the nonfarm sector

APCA Policy for the Future All Countries –Agricultural and food policy should be driven by the domestic needs of the country –Trade is secondary Developed Countries –Create system of storable agricultural commodity reserves (provides price floor and makes food available when supply is thin) –Unilateral and multilateral supply management agreements

APCA Policy for the Future Developing Countries –Invest in agriculture Labor investment on the part of peasants and small holder agriculturalists Research, collaborative work between agriculturalists and researchers Provide production incentives –Design policies that favor feeding the populace

APCA Summary of Unhelpful and Helpful Policies (From a Global Perspective) Unhelpful: –Relying on payments (when output > demand) Makes grain farmers wards of state Shifts price and income problems to farmers in other countries Subsidizes users of grains (grain prices are pushed below the cost of production) Subsidizes input suppliers and services of nonfarm agribusinesses ( because “too much” output being produced)

APCA Summary of Unhelpful and Helpful Policies (From a Global Perspective) Unhelpful: –Relying on payments (when demand > output) Prices skyrocket Hoarding all around Paralyzes trade Causes additional (excess) resources to be brought into agriculture which wring out slowly –Relying on Insurance Makes no sense for systemic price and income problems Ditto all the unhelpful “relying on payments” statements

APCA Summary of Unhelpful and Helpful Policies (From a Global Perspective) Helpful: –Must be driven by domestic needs –Take into account (as opposed to work against or ignore) the nature of food and agriculture –Invest in agriculture; help farmers become as productive as possible –Provide price stabilization via price bands, food reserves and crop rotations or fallow as needed –Promote and participate in multinational food and price stabilization efforts

APCA A Final Thought WTO… –Rules suggest that maximizing agricultural trade should be countries’ primary goal –Seems to ignore countries’ overriding need to adequately feed their people Trade is only one of several means to help secure ample food supplies at reasonable prices WTO… –Should levy sanctions for dumping on international markets –Encourage—not interfere with—countries’ policies to produce for themselves –Recognize that reserves facilitate—not impede—trade

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