1. APCA A New Era for Agriculture? Daryll E. Ray University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center Fourth Annual Water Law, Policy and Science Conference Lincoln, Nebraska March 26, 2007

2. APCA Short-term and Long-term Economic Setting For Ag. Commodity policy under “high” price expectations Demand euphoria but what about grain supply in the short-run and long-run? What is the greatest risk for agriculture in the short-run; in the long run Commodity policy implications

3. APCA Are High Prices the Future? The 2007 USDA Baseline projects: –Corn demand for ethanol 3.2 billion bushels for 2007—double 2005 (AFBF says 3.5) 3.7 billion bushels in 2008 (AFBF says 4.9) –Over 10 years, baseline prices range from $3.30 to $3.75 –Very low corn stock levels by historical standards

4. APCA Logical Implications Subsidies for program crops would: –Largely be replaced by market receipts –Cease to be a budgetary problem for the Federal Government Could even transition the direct (AMTA) payments like 1996 intentions –Cease to be a stumbling block in trade negotiations

5. APCA Short-Term Considerations US supply response –Arbitrage of crop acres in US to corn March Crop Intentions? 7 or 8 million additional acres, 10? 11? 12? –Means less soybeans, wheat, and cotton and more corn –Some land converted to cropland; more of such conversion in long-run

6. APCA Short-Term Considerations International supply response –Increased international production Mexican crop response: 4 million ac. Argentina, Brazil, Africa –All have indicated that $4.00 corn will alter planting response –Internationally there may be a decreased need for corn imports from the US. That is, US corn exports would decline

7. APCA Long-Term Considerations US supply response –Conversion of pasture and grassland— some in CRP?—to crop production –Investment in yield enhancing technology (300 bu./ac on best land?) –Conversion of land to cellulosic feedstocks, some of which will not be from current cropland

8. APCA Long-Term Considerations International supply response –Development and adoption of drought and saline resistant crops –Globalization of agribusiness: Near universal access to the new technologies world-wide Narrowing of technology and yield differentials between US and the rest of the world

9. APCA Long-Term Considerations International supply response –Long-run land potentially availability for major crops Savannah land in Brazil (250 mil. ac. -- USDA says 350) Savannah land in Venezuela, Guyana, and Peru (200 mil. ac.) Land in former Soviet Union (100 mil. ac.) Arid land in China’s west (100 mil. ac. GMO wheat) Savannah land in Sub-Saharan Africa (300 mil. ac. -- 10 percent of 3.1 bil. ac. of Savannah land) –Easy to underestimate supply growth

10. APCA Greatest Short-Term Risk Weather event –2007 US corn carry-out projected to be 5.3% of utilization (in 2005 it was 17.5%) –For full 10 year USDA baseline, the projected range is 4.5 and 5.7 Recent historic range has been 10% to 20% –In five of the last 10 years, we have seen production fall by 300 mil. bu. from the previous year –A shortfall of that magnitude in an era of tight supplies would trigger skyrocketing prices $6 or more per bushel

11. APCA 1995 (4.6%) Uncharted Territory Year ending commercial stocks-to-use ratio for US corn 1938-2005 (actual), 2006-2016 (2007 USDA Baseline) 1947 (4.9%)1983 (5.4%)2009 (4.5%)

12. APCA Greatest Short-Term Risk Weather event –2007 US corn carry-out projected to be 5.3% of utilization (in 2005 it was 17.5%) –For full 10 year USDA baseline, the projected range is 4.5 and 5.7 Recent historic range has been 10% to 20% –In five of the last 10 years, we have seen production fall by 300 mil. bu. from the previous year –A shortfall of that magnitude in an era of tight supplies would trigger skyrocketing prices $6 or more per bushel

13. APCA Short-Term Impact of $6 Corn Demanders –Outrage & economic pain by Livestock and ethanol producers Food processors and consumer groups –“Dependable supplier” issue returns Can the US really guarantee that export embargoes will never again be imposed? Suppliers – Switch more acres to corn US (road-ditch to road-ditch?) Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and elsewhere

14. APCA Greatest Long-Term Risk Acreage and yields greatly increase worldwide—just a question of how fast –With $6 per bushel corn Acreage shifts in the short-run Longer-run investments that increase acreage and yields –With $3 to $4 corn or somewhat lower Increases in acreage & yields but at slower rate Lower prices return –Recreate problems for farmers worldwide and for the US treasury

15. APCA On Knife’s Edge Short-term object lesson? –Need strategic reserves Like a properly managed Farmer-Owned-Reserve Reduce economic dislocation Long-term reality? –“New Era?” (fourth “New Era” in my lifetime) –Supply growth has always caught and then surpassed demand growth (and it does not take long ) This time, surge in productive capacity will be global Need a “Policy for All Seasons”

16. APCA Thank You

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18. APCA Stocks-to-Use – All Types Year ending Commercial, CCC, and FOR stocks-to-use ratio for US corn 1938-2005 (actual), 2006-2016 (2007 USDA Baseline) Government: Commodity Credit Corp. (CCC) Commercial Farmer- Owned- Reserve (FOR) WWII & Post WWII Russian Grain Deal PIK Program Baseline