Slide 1 Improved Initialization for Precipitation Forecasts: Analysis of the ETReC missions during COPS 2007 Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Wirth, and George.

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Presentation transcript:

Slide 1 Improved Initialization for Precipitation Forecasts: Analysis of the ETReC missions during COPS 2007 Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Wirth, and George C. Craig Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre DLR Oberpfaffenhofen Germany

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 2 Improved Water Vapour and Wind Initialisation for Precipitation Forecasts: From existing LIDAR Data towards Targeted Observations 2003 Improved Water Vapour and Wind Initialisation for Precipitation Forecasts: Impact Studies with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System 2005 Improved Initialisation for Precipitation Forecasts: Analysis of the ETReC missions during COPS

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 3 T,P,q u,v,w,TAS Dropsondes: u,v, P,T,q Doppler lidar: Horizontal & vertical wind DIAL: H 2 O, Aerosols wu,v Falcon payload for COPS/ETReC 2007

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 4 48 cm Telescope DIAL Lasers wind lidar LCD-Screen Keyboard Wavelength Control Data Acquisition Water Vapour and Wind Lidar on board the Falcon DIAL Filters & Detectors two 50 cm aircraft windows

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 5 DLR Falcon Missions Altogether: 48.8 flight hours/ 22.5 h funded by DFG

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 6

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 7

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 8 We got aerosol and water vapour fields....

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 9 We got even wind fields !!!!

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 10 Possible Flight Route Sensitive Region: Singular Vector (ECMWF) Sensitive Region: ETKF (MeteoFrance) Upstream Mission: ETReC 2007 UOP 6

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 11 Case Study on COPS IOP 13a on 1 August consecutive flights -Flight 1 & 2: Upstream flights (OP - Faro & Faro - OP) -Flight 3: Modified MAP flight over France Diploma Thesis: Andreas Schäfler (Univ. Innsbruck) "Water vapour transport in a pre-convective environment - use of airborne LIDAR measurements"

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 12 Synoptic Situation from ECMWF short-term forecast 1 August 2007, 16 UTC

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 13 Water Vapor Mixing Ratio Wind velocity

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 14 DIFFERENCES LIDAR - ECMWF

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 15 DIFFERENCES LIDAR - ECMWF

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 16 Overall Aim of the Project investigate the influence of simultaneously observed wind and water vapour fields from airborne lidar observations during COPS on the skill of the NWP, especially the quantitative precipitation forecasts using the 4D-Var data assimilation scheme of the ECMWF-IFS In order to reach this goal, we proceed in three steps: 1. check of the data quality and coverage of the lidar data for the three UOPs with airborne observations during ETReC 2007, 2. analyse the wind and water vapor lidar data and perform a case study of a selected ETReC case, and 3. investigate the impact of the targeted airborne wind and water vapour observations and of the additional radiosonde and high- frequency AMDAR measurements of selected UOPs during ETReC 2007 on the forecast skill of NWP models

DFG Begutachtung Bad Honeff 10/11. Januar 2008 Slide 17 We apply for a PhD Position for two years for a young, talented and motivated meteorologist