Turnout and Elections BC Outreach Zach Swannell Political Science UBC.

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Presentation transcript:

Turnout and Elections BC Outreach Zach Swannell Political Science UBC

Introduction ● What is the marginal impact of the Elections BC outreach campaign on voter turnout in the 2013 provincial election? ● Some existing evidence that particular outreach strategies have stronger/weaker impacts on turnout (e.g. Green 2008) ● Several potential causal mechanisms proposed

The Data Post-Election phone survey, online option, quotas “Many people don’t or can’t vote for a variety of reasons. Did you vote in the May 14 th provincial election?” “Which of the following best describes the highest level of education that you have achieved?...” ● 2,000 total respondents, (half voters, half non- voters) ● Diverse: voter satisfaction, access/convenience, attitudes/interest...

Statistical Model ● Three main independent variables of interest ● General advertising, Flyer/Brochure, 'Where to Vote' card ● Control variables ● Education Sex ● Age Interest in the 2013 election ● First Nations General Interest in Politics ● Perception of civic duty ● Speaks English Voted in last election ● Probit regression and matching (because of selection effect)

Probit Results VariableChange in Predicted Probability of Voting P > l z l Where to Vote Card Education (1-5) Voted last prov. election Male Interest in Politics (1-5)40.00 Interest in Election (1-5) Speak English First Nations40.52 Sense of Civic Duty (1-15) Age in Years Advertising Exposure10.56 Flyer/Brochure

Matching Results ● Nearest neighbor matching ● Average treatment effect VariableCoefficientP > l Z l Where to Vote Card

Cautious Speculation ● So what is driving this association? ● Makes act of voting easier ● Reminder to vote ● Personalization ● More engaged individuals are more likely to notice WTV ● WTV won't reach unregistered voters ● But, limitations of the data... ● Some key variables unobserved (demographics and SES, registration, etc)

Where to Vote Card, 2005

Conclusions ● We know that the size of the WTV Card coefficient is artificially inflated ● It is capturing the effects of other things on turnout as well, such as registration ● The substantively positive and significant relationship found for the WTV Card, which was not found for general advertising or the Flyer, is suggestive that the Card itself did have a positive impact ● Beyond just the selection effect