Groesbeck Investment Management Corporation Our Growth of Income Investment Management Process Kovack Securities, Inc. 2009 National Conference Robert.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
An Introduction to. An Introduction to What are Mutual Funds? Mutual funds are a type of investment that takes money from many investors and uses it.
Advertisements

Learning Objective # 3 Explain how you can evaluate stock investments. LO#3.
DeMarche The Five Key Sources of Stock Returns Bob Duwa DeMarche Associates, Inc. CFA Nebraska February 18, 2009.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 8 Stock Valuation.
Chapter 8 Stock Valuation.
11 CHAPTER FOURTEEN FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF COMMON STOCKS.
Chapter 12 Personal Finance
© 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.13-1 Chapter 13 Investing in Stocks.
Dividend Policy and Retained Earnings (Chapter 18) Optimal Dividend Policy Conflicting Theories Other Dividend Policy Issues Residual Dividend Theory Stable.
FIN352 Vicentiu Covrig 1 Common Stock Valuation (chapter 10)
September 30, 2013 Who We Are Wood Asset Management is an SEC registered investment advisory firm with over $380 million of assets under management. For.
1 CHAPTER FOURTEEN FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF COMMON STOCKS.
Exxon Mobil. - Petroleum Industry structure: - 5 sectors of operations (Upstream, downstream, marine, pipeline, and service/supply) - Extremely high barriers.
Chapter 8 Stock Valuation. Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.8-2 Valuing a Company and Its Future Value of a stock depends upon.
Common Stocks: Analysis and Strategy
Selecting Stocks Personal Finance. How hard is it to pick a stock? “ Everyone has the brain power to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade.
Chapter 12 – MBA5041 Cost of Capital Cost of Equity Capital Estimation of Beta Determinants of Beta Extensions of the Basic Model Estimating International.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Adding diversity to our financial sector holdings.
Copyright © 2006 McGraw Hill Ryerson Limited6-1 prepared by: Sujata Madan McGill University Fundamentals of Corporate Finance Third Canadian Edition.
An Introduction to Mutual Funds
CHAPTER TWENTY-TWO FINANCIAL ANALYSIS. n WHAT IS FINANCIAL ANALYSIS? DEFINITION: the activity of providing inputs to the portfolio management process.
INVESTMENT POLICY STATEMENTS AND ASSET ALLOCATION ISSUES
Fundamental Analysis and Stocks Economics 71a: Spring 2007 Mayo, Chapter 9 Lecture notes 3.3.
Chapter 8 Stock Valuation. Copyright © 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-2 Stock Valuation Learning Goals 1.Explain the role that a.
Fundamental Analysis and Stocks FINAFREE INVESTMENTS 1.
Chapter 9 Section 9.2 – Evaluation of a Stock Issue
This week its Accounting Theory
Power Income Portfolio For more information call:
Security Analysis. Learning Goals Analyzing shares based on Economic, Industry and Fundamental of the company Analyzing shares to determine WHAT shares.
© 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license.
Analyzing Financial Data and Ratios
1 Chapter 10 Equity Valuation Tools Portfolio Construction, Management, & Protection, 5e, Robert A. Strong Copyright ©2009 by South-Western, a division.
CHAPTER 18 Investments Equity Valuation Models Slides by Richard D. Johnson Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Strategy and Research Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA. For Financial Professional Use Only Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research SELECTION PROCESS ›Macro.
Investments: Analysis and Behavior Chapter 10- Financial Statement Analysis ©2008 McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Demonstration Problem
The value of common stocks
W.I.S.E. INVE$TOR$ CLUB Stock Study Guide Sections 2 & 3 Created by: Marlene A. Jordan.
G1 © Family Economics & Financial Education – Revised November 2004 – Investing Unit – Language of the Stock Market Funded by a grant from Take.
G1 STOCKS Essential Questions 1.In what ways does the stock market impact the personal wealth of an individual and a business? 2.Why diversify within.
Dynamic Income & Dividends A Simple Strategy for Excess Returns DIAD Philip A. Venanzi Duquesne MBA Class of 2015.
Managed risk investing Joe Jugovic, CFA President.
THOMPSON WOOD PAGE & CO Investment Management … Results Driven.
MBA Student Managed Fund Class of 2005 University of Connecticut School of Business.
Chapter 14: Investing in Stocks. Objectives Describe stocks and how they are used by corporations and investors. Define everyday terms in the language.
Chapter 14 EQUITY VALUATION How to Find Your Bearings.
Yale School of Management Overview of Equity Investing and Value Investing William N. Goetzmann Yale School of Management.
An Introduction to What are Mutual Funds?  Mutual funds are a type of investment that takes money from many investors and uses it to make investments.
TOPIC: COST OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL BASICS I. DETERMINANTS OF MARKET INTEREST RATES (k) [Also referred to as Quoted or Nominal interest rates] RW Melicher.
Investment in Long term Securities Investment in Stocks.
EQUITY VALUATION. Claims on Cash Flows of Firm Investors forego consumption and invest expecting future returns Risk is associated with the investment.
Research and Evaluation 4.1 INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES.
CHAPTER 11 FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS McGraw-Hill/Irwin©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2002.
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. Chapter 8 Stock Valuation.
Chapter 14 Industry Analysis. Why Do Industry Analysis? Help find profitable investment opportunities Part of the three-step, top-down plan for valuing.
 Fundamental Analysis By Martin Brenner. What is Fundamental Analysis?  A method of evaluating a security that entails attempting to measure its intrinsic.
Industry Analysis Shahadat Hosan Faculty, MBA Program Stamford University Bangladesh 15 June 2011.
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Introduction to Financial Accounting, 9/e © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Introduction to Financial Accounting,
1 MT 483 Investments Unit 5: Ch 8 and 9. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved. 8-2 Steps in Valuing a Company Three steps are necessary.
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Chapter.
Stock Terminology (continued) Investors make money in stocks in two ways: –Dividends Companies may make payment to shareholders as part of the profits.
BMO Guardian Global Dividend Class Advisor Series Active Management by Kleinwort Benson Investors Ltd.
Ratio Analysis…. Types of ratios…  Performance Ratios: Return on capital employed. (Income Statement and Balance Sheet) Gross profit margin (Income Statement)
The Value of Common Stocks
Period Ending 3/31/03 Total Assets $8,279,356
Demonstration Problem
Investment Perspective
University of Winnipeg Investment Group
Dryden Strategic Value
Bassem Bimo Irwan Analysis Financial Report And Business Assessment EQUITY SECURITY ANALYSIS CHAPTER 9 Presented.
Presentation transcript:

Groesbeck Investment Management Corporation Our Growth of Income Investment Management Process Kovack Securities, Inc National Conference Robert P. Dainesi, Portfolio Manager Al Dudley, Marketing Representative October 21, 2009

Groesbeck Investment Management 2 Corporate Profile Professional Experience  Robert P. Groesbeck, CFA, has over 35 years of experience managing assets for taxable and tax-exempt clients. Bob started the firm in  Robert P. Dainesi has 23 years of portfolio management and security analysis experience. Bob joined the firm in  Theodore M. Groesbeck, CFA, has 16 years investment experience. Ted joined the firm in  John D. Mattesich, CFA, has 14 years research experience. John joined the firm in Consistency of Approach and Results  Research driven stock selection disciplines  Philosophy implemented over the long term  Above-market risk-adjusted results  Minimal dependence on market and street forecasts  Fundamentally driven stock selection and sell methodologies  Continuity of philosophy and strategy over many market cycles Corporate Structure  An employee owned corporation managing approximately $400 million  A client base including pension plans, endowments, foundations, Taft Hartley, and high net worth individuals.

Groesbeck Investment Management 3 Empirical evidence supports the case for a dividend-based stock selection strategy. As illustrated below, dividends consistently accounted for a significant portion – and sometimes the majority - of total returns in the S&P 500 index. On average, since 1940, dividends contributed approximately 43% of the total return provided by the S&P 500. Dividend Portion of Total Return of the S&P 500 Annual Annual Dividend % Decade % Change Dividend Total Return Total Return 1940s 3.0% 6.5% 9.5% 68.3% 1950s 13.6% 5.8% 19.3% 29.8% 1960s 4.4% 3.4% 7.8% 43.7% 1970s 1.6% 4.4% 5.9% 72.7% 1980s 12.6% 5.0% 17.5% 28.2% 1990s 15.3% 2.9% 18.2% 15.8% 2000s* -3.9% 1.6% -2.3% ????? Source: Bloomberg * Through 7/31/2009 After three of the last four recession-driven bear markets, high yield stocks posted accelerating excess total returns over the S&P 500. Importantly, excess returns from dividend payers were nearly flat or negative in the first year following the market bottom, but investors that stuck with the strategy would have been handsomely rewarded over the longer-term in three out of the four scenarios. The Importance of Dividends

Groesbeck Investment Management 4 Source: Ned Davis Research Very Favorable Risk/Return Profile of Dividend Payers versus Non-Payers (1/31/72-12/31/08)

Groesbeck Investment Management 5 Growth of Income Returns Return vs. Risk Groesbeck Mgmt. Wrap Growth-Inc. Standard & Poor’s 500

Groesbeck Investment Management 6 Growth of Income Returns as of 6/30/09 5-YEAR ROLLING DOWN-MARKET CAPTURE Universe: PSN Large Cap Core

Groesbeck Investment Management 7 Growth of Income Returns as of 6/30/09 5-YEAR ROLLING RETURNS Universe: PSN Large Cap Core

Groesbeck Investment Management 8 Growth of Income Returns as of 6/30/09

Groesbeck Investment Management 9 Benefits of a Dividend-Paying Stock Selection Strategy Dividend paying stocks are typically less volatile than the overall stock market, thereby reducing risk. (Our Growth of Income composite has a ten year standard deviation and beta of 14.8 and 0.62, versus 17.0 and 1.0, respectively, for the S&P 500) Consistent dividend payout policy is an indication of a well-managed, fundamentally sound company Regular dividend payments help align management and shareholder interests, and provide a deterrent to investing in low-return capital projects A dividend increase is a positive signal of future financial strength

Groesbeck Investment Management 10  Superior Sustainable Earnings Growth - Growing companies, based on trailing operating earnings, producing earnings growth superior to the S&P 500. Our target is portfolio earnings growth of 10% or more.  Attractive Growth of Dividends - Compared with industry and market benchmarks. We buy companies which have increased their dividends each and every year.  Superior Dividend Yield - Dividends must be attractive relative to the S&P 500 and other alternatives.  Superior Revenue Growth - Positive growth of revenues from sustainable ongoing business operations.  Strong Financials - Ensuring companies purchased have strong balance sheets.  Low Dividend Payout Ratio - Ensuring that management is not paying out in dividends an excessive portion of earnings.  High Return on Equity - Investing in only companies having high return on equity, an important measure of overall corporate profitability.  Liquidity - We actively monitor the trading volume of all qualified stocks in an attempt to reduce market price impact. The First Step: Quantitative Analysis Groesbeck Investment Management’s investment process begins with the search for:

Groesbeck Investment Management 11 Dividend Criteria  Consistent growth of dividends in the future  Dividend growth exceeding industry and market averages  Potential for significant growth Validate Fundamentals  Underlying sales, earnings, margin trends  Operating & free cash flows  Balance sheet strength Evaluate Business  Market leadership and market share  Industry outlook  Factors affecting sustainability of sales and earnings Valuation Analysis  P/E multiple on trailing operating earnings, relative to the S&P, its industry, and its history  P/E relative to growth rate (PEG Ratio); the current PEG Ratio is 1.0x  Attractiveness of dividend yield The Next Step: Fundamental Analysis For those companies possibly qualifying for our portfolio, we perform in-depth fundamental analysis: Our process avoids deep cyclical companies such as the paper, auto, chemicals, metals, and transportation companies

Groesbeck Investment Management 12 Portfolio Statistics as of 6/30/09 Groesbeck Growth of IncomeS&P 500 Trailing 12 Month P/E12.8x21.4xLower Dividend Yield3.5%2.5%Higher 1 yr EPS Growth2.0%-44%Better 5 yr EPS Growth4.0%-7.0%Better 1 yr Dividend Growth14%-3.5%Better 5 yr Dividend Growth14.8%3.4%Better Projected 3 yr Dividend Growth6.1%-5.0%Better Dividend Coverage2.5x1.6xBetter Payout Ratio43%63%Better Price to Book3.6x3.2xHigher Price to Cash Flow8.7x10.8xLower Price to Sales1.6x1.5xIn-Line Average ROE26.4%24.6%Better Portfolio Beta Less Volatility 5 yr STD Deviation Above 10 yr Std Deviation Less Volatility

Groesbeck Investment Management 13  Construction of a Diversified Portfolio  Fully Invested At All Times  companies  Over 15 industries Portfolio Construction: Growth of Income Process Portfolio Sector Weights ( 6/30/09 )

Groesbeck Investment Management 14 Representative Holdings (6/30/09) 5 Year Annualized Growth Current Yield EPS* Dividend S&P Rank The Growth of Income portfolio holds companies with strong balance sheets that achieve above-average earnings and dividend growth and high profitability. Becton Dickinson1.9%15.5%18.4%A Johnson & Johnson A+ United Technologies A+ Praxair A PepsiCo., Inc A+ Chevron A- Procter & Gamble A+ Illinois Tool Works A+ McDonalds A- AFLAC A

Groesbeck Investment Management 15 Our reasons for selling:  Weakening Revenues and Earnings Trends We want to own companies producing growing revenues and earnings.  Declining Margins A reduction in profit margins is often a warning for not only one stock but possibly several members of a sector.  Failure to Increase the Dividend This would cause an automatic sale of the holding.  Reduced Growth Rate of Dividend This triggers a review and possible sale.  Positions Sold When Fully Valued  Superior Alternatives We monitor other candidates closely, and make portfolio changes which increase the income stream.  Positions Trimmed as Prices Advance Stocks exceeding 7% of the portfolio will be trimmed back to 5% or less. Sell Disciplines