Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting,

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Presentation transcript:

Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. (Narragansett, RI) Dynamic Positioning Conference November , 2005 Sensors II

Waiting On Currents…. W O C When will it go away? When will the Loop/eddy hit our site? ? ? ? How long will it shut us down?

LOOP CURRENT/EDDY MODEL FORECAST Frontal boundary Cyclone Center

EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM COMPONENTS INITIALIZATION COMPONENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES NOWCAST PREDICTION COMPONENT FORECAST

TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM SATELLITE ALTIMETRY MODEL FORECAST NOWCAST AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ANALYSIS 15 SEPTEMBER 2004 Courtesy of R. Leben CU-CCAR EDDY WATCH GULF CHART 15 SEPTEMBER 2004 MC GC WR

AEF- HORIZON EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM INITIAL CONDITIONS (NOWCAST) FORECAST INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE MODEL ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME

OBSERVATIONAL DATA Drifting buoys Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs) Ocean current surveys Rig mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) SST and ocean color Rig and pilot observations Altimetry

FAR HORIZON DRIFTING BUOYS EXPERIENCE Over 1700 FHDs successfully deployed at sea Eddy Watch – GOM (1705) Eddy Watch – Trinidad (69) Hurricane Oil Spill Search & Rescue Ring & Eddy Surveys Vessel Tracking Instrument Recovery Plankton Studies, etc.

AIR-DEPLOYED EXPENDABLE BATHYTHERMOGRAPH (AXBT) Temperature

OCEAN CURRENT SURVEYS RIG-MOUNTED ADCPs – EDDYNET SATELLITE IMAGERY EDDY ULYSSES LOOP CURRENT

EDDY WATCH GOM CHART EDDY ULYSSES LOOP CURRENT TITANIC EDDY WE CE GULF of MEXICO 09 September 2004 EDDY WATCH REPORT

EDDY WATCH CENTRAL GULF CHART EDDY ULYSSES LC CE GULF of MEXICO 09 September 2004 EDDY WATCH REPORT

IDENTIFICATION OF EDDY FEATURES Eddy size Eddy shape Rotation and migration Vertical density structure Swirl speed Surrounding cyclonic eddies

INITIALIZATION COMPONENT Analysis of observational data Identification of significant eddy features Initialization component Formulation of a “nowcast” Model forecast

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY MODEL FORECAST NOWCAST AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION COMPARISON OF TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM… INITIAL CONDITIONS (NOWCAST) FORECAST INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE MODEL ….WITH AEF-HMI EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME

09 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART09 SEPTEMBER 2004 NOWCAST

15 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART15 SEPTEMBER 2004 FORECAST

Thunder Horse THUNDER HORSE FORECAST

BP THUNDER HORSE – ADCP vs EDDY FORECAST

LOOP CURRENT FORECAST

3-D MODEL OF EDDY ULYSSES

SUMMARY New Loop Current/Eddy forecasting system now available Skill in predicting currents out 1 month Advance knowledge of currents answers questions