W ILL G EOPOLITICS U NDO THE W ORLD E CONOMY ? Michael Lind September 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

W ILL G EOPOLITICS U NDO THE W ORLD E CONOMY ? Michael Lind September 2014

Three Trends 1)Slowing growth 2)The Salafist revolution and the decline of Sykes-Picot 3)Increasing great-power rivalries

Slowing Growth Worldwide Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014

Asia: A Middle Income Trap? Source: Asian Development Bank and the Financial Times

Political Responses to Slow Growth Exporting unemployment by: 1.Promoting current account surpluses 2.Protectionism 3.Immigration Restriction

Euro Area Current Account Source: Eurostat

Weak global growth has meant limited improvement in net exports

Modes of Protectionism Since 2008 Source: AIEN Network

The Salafist Revolution and the Decay of Sykes-Picot Implications for financial and internet integration Implications for trade, travel and immigration

Trade Follows the Flag Source: The Washington Times

TTIP and NATO Source: Curiousmatic & Economy In Crisis

BRICS members and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) Source: SCO & Wikimedia

RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) Source: Wikimedia

Russian Pipelines Source: Samuel Bailey

Sino-Pakistan Pipeline Source: South Asia Investor Review

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