Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference London, Tuesday 2 nd October 2007 “Delivering Growth in a Riskier World” Eugene.

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Presentation transcript:

Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Merrill Lynch Banking & Insurance CEO Conference London, Tuesday 2 nd October 2007 “Delivering Growth in a Riskier World” Eugene Sheehy, Group Chief Executive

2 A number of statements we will be making in our presentation and in the accompanying slides will not be based on historical fact, but will be “forward- looking” statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions, levels of market interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, competitive and regulatory factors and technology change. Any ‘forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of the Group speak only as of the date they are made. visit Forward looking statements The following commentary is on a continuing operations basis. The growth percentages (excl. EPS) are shown on an underlying basis, adjusted for the impact of exchange rate movements on the translation of foreign locations’ profit and excluding interest rate hedge volatility.

3 Delivering growth in a riskier world AIB investor sentiment dominated by two themes in 2007 Global market conditions Irish economy and the housing market

4 Global market conditions AIB in a good position High quality resilient loan portfolios; lead indicators remain positive Minimal exposure to CDOs / US sub-prime No exposure to conduits or SIVs Basis risk having a moderate effect in 2007 Primarily affects Irish mortgage book Top quality securities portfolios Not immune to current indiscriminate valuation writedowns Robust capital and funding positions

5 As at 31 December, 2006 As at 30 June, 2007 ILs/TotalILs/Total ActualProvisions/ActualProvisions/ ILsAdvancesILsILsAdvancesILs €m%€m% Impaired loans by Division AIB Bank ROI Capital Markets AIB Bank UK Poland Total

6 Asset quality – key indicators remain strong 0.9Impaired loans (ILs)% Criticised loans / total loans% Gross new ILs%0.4 76Total provisions / ILs%80 12Bad debt chargebps4 Dec 2006 Jun 2007

7 Capital Markets – high quality loan portfolios (US 60%, Europe 40%) Average portfolio margin  to 164 bps International expansion built on people experience / sector specialism More difficult conditions would create opportunities Leveraged finance highly diversified 470 cases, average hold c. €9m

8 CLOs / CDOs Asset portfolio of €359m, investment grade All performing well, no write downs, all held to maturity US / Europe split 51% / 49%, average deal size €9.6m Own managed CLOs / CDOs Asset manager for 6 funds, total funds managed €2bn, all performing well, no write downs Holder of small equity tranches totalling c. €35m US sub prime ABS Portfolio of $238m, 31 transactions, average deal size $7.7m, investment grade All performing well, no write downs, all held to maturity US sub prime “whole loans” Portfolio of $149m April 2007 vintage loans purchased at very attractive yields Assets selected directly by AIB from top US originator, performing well, held to maturity Characteristics Low level exposure to market “hotspots” c. 0.6% of AIB loan book

9 Solid capital position 8.0% 7.9% 7.6% Preference share % Tier 1 Total capital ratio 10.4% Tier 1 7.6% (target minimum c. 7%) Core tier 1 5.6% (preference shares 26%, target range 20 – 30%) No requirement for recourse to shareholders Basel II - no material change expected to capital position Application made to Regulator Targeting foundation level IRB Jun 06Dec 06Jun 07 30% 27%26% Tier 1 ratio * Restated to reflect 2006 dividend paid *

10 Funding 49% 22% 10%10% 4% 47% 23% 9% 8% % 7%9% 4% 8%

11 AIB term debt distribution Euro 75% STG 16% US$ 8% JY 1% Step-up issues – adjusted to earliest step-up date Debt distribution € (m)

12 Irish economy %2007 (f)2008 (f) GDP Growth slowing in a changing, more broad based economy House market trends are a rational adjustment Moderate price reductions following long period of buoyancy Buyers responding to lower affordability; developers reducing supply Positive demographics underpin long term demand Personal disposable income and spending are increasing Private sector credit demand remains good Government finances in excellent condition National development plan €184bn underway Employment continues to grow, unemployment 4.6%

13 Home mortgages – Republic of Ireland Primary emphasis remains on repayment capacity Conservative LTVs and loan durations New business LTVs across all ranges virtually unchanged in 2007 Maximum term 35 years, 83% mature within 25 years Aggressive posture on quality business bps Irish mortgages c. 6% of group profit Principal focus on our own customers Very solid, resilient portfolio Arrears profile remains very low

14 Property & construction – solid & well diversified Low level of impaired loans for this sector Property & construction 0.4%, total book 0.7% Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland Great Britain USA Poland Other Loan book diversified by geography Further diversified by wide range of sub sectors & borrowers

15 Irish property & construction – high quality, good demand Commercial investment: spread by sector, tenant & covenant, retail 26%, office 33%, industrial 8%, mixed 33% Residential investment: wide tenant spread, highly granular / small bite sizes, conservative approach to location, occupancy, repayment capacity and LTV Commercial development: emphasis on pre-sales / pre-lets / recourse to independent cash flows, typical LTV 70-75% for proven developers in favourable locations, low exposure to speculative development Residential development: finance usually phased / linked to pre- sales / recourse to independent cash flows for proven developers, typical LTV 70 – 80%, focus on loan reduction in 1 -2 year timeframe Contracting: working capital for established players AIB Bank RoI Division portfolios Good customer demand in a changing environment Pipeline underpins confidence in our outlook for growth Strong demand continues in commercial investment & development Increasing investment / development appetite for overseas assets; now c. 12% of RoI book Financial flexibility of proven developers to increase investment portfolios

16 AIB – a snapshot Single enterprise support framework IrelandUK Capital Markets Poland M&T “The 4 Pillars”“Store of Value” ++++ “€400m investment, 4,000 people, focused on service quality, risk mitigation and managed cost”

17 Premium positions in high growth markets Republic of Ireland Extending our no. 1 position in a resilient economy UK Significant headroom for growth in selected GB mid market business sectors; strong franchise in an improving N.I. environment Poland Well set for rapid organic growth and expansion – franchise built on solid foundations in a buoyant economy; 2007 (f) GDP c. 6% Rest of WorldApplying skills to carefully selected, high potential international corporate markets and niches. Active partnership with outstanding US regional bank

18 Consistent, sustained & broad based growth AIB Bank RoI€527m  17% Capital Markets€331m  12% AIB Bank UK€223m  19% Poland€155m  37% M&T*€74m  1% Operating profit by division 40% 25% 17% 12% 6% * after tax contribution H1 2007

19 Strength in diversity Pre-tax profit by geography * * Management estimate of continuing operations reflecting the geographic markets from which profit was generated. Does not include profit on disposal / development of properties and interest rate hedge volatility H1 2007

20 Gaining market share in a competitive environment Est. Rest of Market AIB YoY growth to June 2007 AIB Bank Republic of Ireland Supporting experienced business customers in their areas of proven expertise Targeting loan and deposit growth of c. 20% and c. 5% respectively Ahead of aggressive profit growth plan in wealth management (€50m in 2006, €150m in 2010) Aviva JV outperforming; significant expansion of private banking capability Attacking underweight position in retail banking Clear no. 1 in personal account openings Achieving high quality growth through investment in strength and depth of franchise

21 Global Treasury Customer78% Proprietary 22% Strong performance in customer services Difficult market conditions Highly controlled risk environment High quality securities portfolio 10 year PBT CAGR 21% Strong recurring customer based income, 87% of total Targeting loan growth of c. 20% in 2007 * Includes AIA, previously included in Investment Banking ** before distributions to other divisions Investment Banking Strong performances in asset management, stockbroking and corporate finance Ireland 19% International 81% Corporate Banking Carefully chosen, well understood sectors / niches Conservative risk appetite Strong risk management framework Tougher credit conditions will present opportunity H Capital Markets ** * H1 2007

22 AIB Bank United Kingdom Great Britain Growth driven by intense focus on dual priorities Premium product and service delivery in response to buoyant customer demand + Realignment of franchises to maximise efficiency Targeting loan growth of c. 20% and deposit growth of over 20% in 2007 Northern Ireland Focus on high growth niches Chosen mid market business sectors Increasing our presence in healthcare, environment, education, professional services Leveraging business relationships to build complementary private banking service Actively recruiting high quality people to underpin momentum Strong growth in improved economy Realising benefits of “hub & spoke” approach Branch reconfiguration aligned to local market potential Removal of support activities to dedicated centres Refreshed product suite

23 WARSAW POZNAN WROCLAW KRAKOW GDANSK SZCZECIN LODZ KATOWICE Poland Much improved economic conditions facilitating high quality growth Targeting loan and deposit growth of c. 30% and 10% respectively Leading positions in fund management and brokerage services underline ability to “punch above our weight” Return on invested capital exceeds 40% Branches  377 branches, 605 ATMs  50 new branches planned for 2007  Expansion in key markets Corporate Business Centres  Warsaw, Poznan, Wroclaw, Krakow, Gdansk  65% total loans under CBC mgt.  3 new locations in 2007 – Katowice / Szczecin / Łodz External Channels  “Mini Bank” franchise  Direct Banking  Intermediaries / mobile sales

24 M&T Continues to perform well in a challenging US market Premium valuation underlines management quality Internal rate of return 17% (4 years to April 2007) AIB shareholding 24.9%; recently announced acquisition will reduce to c. 24.2% Significant store of value

25 Delivering growth in a riskier world Rich mix of earnings by geography & business unit underpins stability and options for growth Improving productivity while investing to sustain growth High quality asset portfolios Solid capital and funding positions GrowthResilience EfficiencyDiversity Highly skilled experienced people

26 Contacts Alan  Rose  Pat  Karla  Our Group Investor Relations Department will be happy to facilitate your requests for any further information Visit our website