Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013
WELCOME Phil Cusack President
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY Dr John Ashcroft Chief Economist
COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR
EMPLOYMENT TRACKER
INFLATION TRACKER
UK SALES
UK SALES (PRODUCTION)
UK ORDERS
EXPORT SALES
EXPORT ORDERS
EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING
EMPLOYMENT IN SERVICES
MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE
SERVICES CONFIDENCE
INVESTMENT IN PLANT & MACHINERY
INTENTIONS TO INCREASE PRICES
COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR
International Perspectives 2014 January 2014
GDP % Greece GDP % Greece GDP Greece Unemployment latest (Nov) 26.9%
GDP Greece
GDP % Italy GDP % Italy GDP Greece Italy Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.7%
GDP Greece Italy
GDP % Portugal Spain GDP % Portugal Spain GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Unemployment latest (Nov)Spain26.7% Portugal15.5%
GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal
GDP % Ireland GDP % Ireland GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.3%
GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland
GDP % France GDP % France GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Unemployment latest (Nov) 10.8%
GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France
GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Germany GDP % Germany GDP % Germany Unemployment latest (Nov) 5.2%
GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Germany
GDP % Belgium Holland GDP % Belgium Holland GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Germany Belgium Holland Unemployment latest (Nov) Belgium8.4% Holland6.9%
GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Germany Belgium Holland
GDP Greece Italy Spain Portugal Ireland France Germany Belgium Holland U rate latest (Nov) Denmark6.9% Sweden8.0% Norway3.3% Finland8.4% U rate latest (Nov) Denmark6.9% Sweden8.0% Norway3.3% Finland8.4% GDP % Denmark Sweden Norway Finland GDP % Denmark Sweden Norway Finland
GDP Euro Zone EU Europe W
GDP Euro Zone EU Europe W
GDP Euro Zone EU Europe W Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU %
GDP Euro Zone EU Europe W Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU % Youth unemployment
GDP Euro Zone EU Europe W Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU % Youth unemploment EU Zone 24.2% Spain 57.7% Portugal 54.8% Croatia 49.7%
North America % % Asia Pacific % % Western Europe % % Eastern Europe % % Latin America % % The World in 2014 MENSA % % MENSA Egypt Israel Saudi Arabia Nigeria S Africa United Kingdom % % 4.5% 7.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 6.0% 6.9% 2.5% MINT Mexico2.9% Indonesia6.0% Nigeria6.9% Turkey4.5% BRIC Brazil2.8% Russia2.5% India4.5% China7.5%
North America 15% Asia Pacific 15% Western Europe 50% Eastern Europe 6% Latin America 1% The World in UK Direction of Trade Stats MENSA 7% Based on 2012 ONS data MINT 2% BRIC 8%
International Perspectives 2014 January 2014
Ten Predictions for 2014 January 2014
Ten Predictions for 2014
World trade growth is expected to recover from an average 2.8% in 2013 to a trend rate of growth of around 5% over the next two years. World Trade Growth
UK GDP Growth UK GDP growth for 2013 will be revised up to 2% in the year. We expect growth of 2.5% in 2014 rising to 2.7% in the following year.
UK Inflation CPI basis
Unemployment Claimant Count
Unemployment - LFS Rate
Average Earnings
International Trade
Government Borrowing
Sterling Exchange Rates
Gilt Yields
Base Rates
QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION
ACTION FOR BUSINESS Chris Fletcher Director of Policy & Communications
2014 Overview Events programme – QES, QEF, A4B Forums, Council Increase and develop the quality of business thought leadership, member opinion and engagement Planned activity throughout 2014
2014 – Current action Late payment consultation – short survey for feedback on government consultation Zero Hours Contracts – government consultation
2014 – Major themes and issues Cost of doing business - minimum wage vs living wage Transport – rail, road, aviation Energy Business Bank Trade Elections and Referendums
2014 – Key Dates Surveys - QES, March, June, September, November -Trade Survey, Feb - Labour Market, May - Business Environment, October
2014 – Key Dates Elections and Referendums -European Elections, May - Scottish Referendum, September - General Election, May 2015
2014 – Key Dates Events - 42 A4B events in 10 areas - Sector events and seminars, Business leaders, Women in Business - Great Manchester Business Conference 21 st March - Annual Dinner, 15 th May - QES Briefings - Quarterly Economic Forecasts - Policy & Campaign Committee, Chamber Council
2014 – Online
CLOSING REMARKS Phil Cusack President
THANK YOU