Australian Air Quality Forecasting System Peter Manins CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Australia WMO GURME SAG member Demonstration Project

Maximum 1-hr ozone levels in Australian cities (Air NEPM = 0.1 ppm) Source: data from environment agencies

Tomorrow will be fine and sunny -with moderate to heavy air pollution

Melbourne Eddy Bay Breeze Sea Breeze Cold Front Melbourne – high resolution need

The System Components MET ANALYSIS EPA DATABASE AQ + MET OBS. WEATHER PREDICTION EMISSION MODELLING TRANSPORT AND REACTION AIR QUALITY FORECAST EVALUATION BoM-LAPS+CTM

Data Flows for AAQFS

Generate air quality forecasts twice per day for a period of 24–36 hours: (3 pm and 9 am). Forecast for a wide range of air pollutants: NO x, ROC, SO 2, O 3, aerosol, air toxics. Resolve air quality down to suburb level (5 km, 1 km, and near-road in some cases). Generate a ‘business as usual’ forecast and a ‘greener emissions’ forecast. AAQFS Design Features

THE AUSTRALIAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM WEATHER MODEL EMISSIONS INVENTORY AIR QUALITY MODEL AIR QUALITY FORECAST Tomorrow will be fine and sunny!

AAQFS Emissions Inventory WEATHER MODEL EMISSIONS INVENTORY AIR QUALITY MODEL AIR QUALITY FORECAST SOURCE CATEGORIES Cars, trucks, buses, motor cycles, lawn mowers, spray painting combustion stoves, cut grass, trees, dry cleaners, marine pleasure craft, aviation, commercial shipping, rail transport, surface coating/thinners, natural gas leakage, domestic/commercial solvents, service stations, refueling losses, cutback bitumen, domestic aerosols, domestic natural gas combustion, petroleum refining, chemical manufacturing, printing, fabricated metals,basic metal processing, fuel storage, paint manufacturing, food manufacturing,non-metallic mineral processing, hospitals, incinerator, paper products, quarrying textiles, coal mining, TAIL-PIPE EMISSIONS ROAD-LEVEL EMISSIONS Fleet emissions - Melbourne

Emissions Inventory Motor vehicle emissions (diurnal, weekly var.) Domestic wood fires (season, degree days) Industrial stack plume rise (stability, winds) Biogenic emissions from soil, vegetation (temperature, PAR, season) Sea salt aerosol (winds, sea state, temperature) Wind blown dust (winds, LAI, moisture) Wild fires and controlled burns (winds, degree days, humidity) As much as possible, these emissions and their interactions with the forecast meteorology are calculated on-line.

STUDY REGIONSSYDNEY MELBOURNE AUSTRALIA

AAQFS in Victoria Urban CTM domain- Melbourne AUSTRALIA VICTORIA Regional CTM domain

Example, The Forecast for 6 June 01 on the Web: not on the Web

Example, Summer validation (1) 15 March 2001 NO y NO 2 O3O3 VOC

Example, Summer validation (2) 15 March 2001 AQI PM 2.5 /10 NO 2 /NO y PM 10 /NO y

50 th,90 th,95 th,99 th,99.9 th,100 th percentile concentrations, March 2001 for Melbourne/Geelong

Contingency Table Melbourne & Geelong, March, June-July 2001 Probability of Detection, SP = [Yes,Yes]/Total Obs [Yes] = 69/116 = 59% Fraction of Realised Events, SR = [Yes,Yes]/Total Forecast [Yes] = 69/130 False Alarm Rate, (1-SR) = 61/130 = 47%

PHOTOCHEMICAL SMOG Performance- d aily 1-hour O 3 max

Why is AAQFS special? Provides twice-daily forecasts of AQI or RPI (and 18 pollutants) for EPAs on timeProvides twice-daily forecasts of AQI or RPI (and 18 pollutants) for EPAs on time Shows the daily development of pollution (highly instructive; web mounted)Shows the daily development of pollution (highly instructive; web mounted) Because prognostic, unusual events handled (if Emissions, Weather desc. OK)Because prognostic, unusual events handled (if Emissions, Weather desc. OK) Can explore results with powerful display tools and better, slower, modelsCan explore results with powerful display tools and better, slower, models Alternative scenarios, special locations handledAlternative scenarios, special locations handled