Future Employment Trends Jeff Sachse Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development Jim Golembeski Bay Area Workforce Development Board

ELDER NUMBERS GROW KIDS NUMBERS DON’T 2 Source: BEA, OEA

POPULATION INCREASES WORKFORCE DOESN’T 3 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program

AGING WORKFORCE AFFECTS “BLUE COLLAR” INDUSTRIES STRONGLY Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau

EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT STEADIER WORK

THE SO-CALLED “COLLEGE WAGE PREMIUM” INCREASES WITH EMPLOYMENT SECURITY

Growing Wisconsin’s Talent Pool What is the Human Age? Manpower has identified that we are on the cusp of a new reality: we are entering the Human Age. The world is experiencing a global readjustment in which powerful forces, in flight over the last few years, are converging to create a new reality where business models will have to be redesigned, value propositions redefined, and social systems reinvented. In this new reality, human potential will become the major agent of economic growth. In the Human Age, people will take their rightful place at center stage as the world’s only source of inspiration, passion, and inspiration, and the driving force behind endeavor and enterprise. What has caused the Human Age? The world has experienced a series of tumultuous shifts over the last decade, and the velocity of change is increasing. ManpowerGroup has been tracking World of Work megatrends which are changing the face of the labor market – and business – globally. It is the combined impact of these changes and the speed with which they are transforming the world that has conspired to bring about the dawn of the Human Age: Through the recession and now into the recovery, the pressure to do more with less has intensified, increasing competition for talent. A technological revolution is transforming the World of Work, enabling the rapid and unfiltered exchange of ideas and innovation, giving a voice to millions and providing a new level of flexibility. Power is shifting from employer to individual, leading to more individual choice. As employers seek to unleash human spirit, passion and potential, they are required to adopt a “one-size-fits-one” approach and engagement on a human level. The shifting demographic landscape is creating a talent shortage; employers are struggling with a mismatch - finding the right talent in the right place at the right time. The world is changing so fast, so dramatically, and so completely that only the intellectual curiosity, passion, empathy, imagination, commitment, and ultimate potential of humanity itself will enable us to move forward, adapt, evolve, and rebuild. By making talent the new competitive advantage – the new it – we believe that those countries and companies can unleash the human potential as major agents of economic growth. We call this force talentism: the workforce strategy required to unleash human potential will be at least as important to your success as your capital strategy. These trends are so impactful that we are on the cusp of a new era – the Human Age where human potential will be the catalyst of change and the driving force economically, politically, and socially. A Competitive Wisconsin BE BOLD initiative

Where and How We Work Is Changing There Are Not Enough Skilled Workers in the U.S. There Are Not Enough Skilled Workers in Wisconsin People Are Making Different Choices Technology is Changing How and When We Work Customers Are More Sophisticated

What’s Changed The Demographic Shift There Are Not Enough Skilled Workers in the U.S. The Demographic Shift Employees old enough to retire now outnumber teen workers for the first time in 60 years In the US 10,000 workers reach age 65 daily By 2020, more than 36% of the country’s population will be older than 65

What’s Changed The Talent Shortage In Wisconsin: Only 17.5% of small companies and 31% of large companies report that they have world-class, innovation talent. 66% report that they lack the talent to drive global engagement into the next decade. (Source: Next Generation Wisconsin Manufacturing) Approximately 1 in 10 jobs for key economic sectors go unfilled today in the following skills clusters : Accounting & Fin. Analysis: 9% Mechanical Engineering: 11% Metal Manufacturing: 12% (Source: ManpowerGroup study)

The Mismatch: Supply/Demand Changes are Driving a Significant Mismatch What’s Changed The Mismatch: Supply/Demand Changes are Driving a Significant Mismatch Lack of resources creates tension on the high-demand skills market: Increases the cost of business 34,000-60,000 Open Jobs Demand for skill Over-supply of low or wrongly skilled resources generates unemployment: Reduces public sector income and increases costs for assistance Don’t be fooled by unemployment rates as it relates to available talent – already there is an oversupply of labor and an undersupply of talent. Across the globe, a variety of demographic developments have led to too few people in the right age or skill groups, or the right locations. Moreover, in many parts of the world, fewer people will be entering the workforce in the next 20 years. Italy will lose 28% of its population by 2050. In order to maintain its working age population, Italy would need to start importing more than 350,000 immigrants per year or, alternatively, keep citizens working until they are age 75. OECD, “Trends in Worker Requirements and the Need for Better Information to Make More Informed Decisions in a Global Economy,” June 2007 From 2011, 10,000 baby boomers will turn 65 every day for the next 19 years. (source: Pew Research Center) Young people are twice or three times as probable to be unemployed as adults. (source: International Labor Organization) With 45 million new entrants in the global job market annually – most of them young – 300 million new jobs will be needed between now and 2015 to keep pace with the growth in the labor force. (source: Recovering from the crisis: A Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the International Labour Conference at its Ninety-eighth Session, Geneva, 19 June 2009) In North and West Africa, more than one-quarter of the population is under age 15 and unemployment rates for young people exceed 30%. (source: International Institute for Labour Studies. “Making Migration a Development Factor: The Case of North and West Africa”, 2010) To ease the shortage, developed countries will continue to offer incentives to older workers to postpone retirement and remain in the workforce longer in order to maintain adequate levels of skilled talent. Retirees may even be offered attractive incentives to re-enter the workforce. And in some emerging countries, skilled expatriates may be lured back home by opportunities resulting from economic growth fueled by foreign direct investment. Employers will also continue to look toward new talent markets that can satisfy their needs. This may provide an opportunity for some emerging markets with growing populations, such as some countries in Africa. Supply of skill 75,000UI Claimants Source: Confronting the Talent Crunch: A ManpowerGroup White Paper And Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, August 29, 2012 11

The BE BOLD 2 Supply/Demand Study

Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Projections (608) 267-7314 or (608) 267-9607.

Any Questions? Jeffrey Sachse Regional Economist – Northeast Wisconsin Office of Economic Advisors (920) 448-5268 jeff.sachse@dwd.wisconsin.gov Jim Golembeski Executive Director Bay Area Workforce Development Board (920) 431-4102 jgolembeski@bayareawdb.org