Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil Toward More Prosperous Cities: Putting People First Wendell Cox ● 28 October 2013

Shanghai Large labor markets are the only raison d’être of large cities. Alain Bertaud, World Bank WHY CITIES EXIST

Principal Priority of Government Improving Economic Well-Being (Better standard of living, less poverty) Misplaced priorities

Athens LABELS: Smart Growth Growth Management Compact Cities Urban Containment: Economic Threat IMPERATIVE TO STOP THE SPREAD

World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT Huge Swings : 1000 to1500 High 1.1M Low 0.25M Example BELOW Hangzhou, China (Largest Pre-19 th Century Urban Area (1300)

Manila Slum CITIES, ECONOMICS & POVERTY

Walking Mass Transit Highest National GDPs: BC TO PRESENT Auto PRINCIPAL MODE  Figure 7 From Maddison (OECD)

Manila Prosperity is not Guaranteed ECONOMIC POLICIES MATTER

9 Dhaka Dhaka Shantytown Up to 2M/Square Mile Economics: A History of Poverty CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED

Los Angeles HOW CITIES GROW

Addis Ababa Urban Area: Evolution  2010 

JAKARTA (CORE) SUBURBS & EXURBS Jakarta: Growth by Sector

Population by District: MUMBAI METROPOLITAN REGION OUTER MUMBAI INNER MUMBAI THANE RAIGAHR

Growing Megacities Becoming Less Dense

No Move from Suburbs to Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: Data from Census Bureau

Mumbai CITIES & URBAN CONTAINMENT

OUTSIDE UGB $16,000 Per Acre INSIDE UGB $180,000 Per Acre Urban Growth Boundaries DESTROYING THE COMPETITIVE LAND SUPPLY Portland Similar Results In London & and Auckland

Suburban Toronto (Newmarket) Statistics Canada: High Density 6+ Miles From Downtown Relies on Cars Density & Transit TRAVEL PATTERNS NO DIFFERENT THAN LOW DENSITY

Preserving Agricultural Land AGRICULTURAL LAND TAKEN OUT OF PRODUCTION c Net new open space  equal to Agricultural productivity has doubled

CITIES & HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Kansas City Housing: Largest Household Expenditure

Urban Containment Raises House Prices URBAN CONTAINMENT LAND RATIONING Nick Boles UK Planning Minister Kate Barker Bank of England Specious Planning Claim: No Consensus (Sun rises in the west economics)

Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Introduction to 4 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.

Abandoning Urban Containment NEW ZEALAND, FLORIDA, SYDNEY Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister New Zealand Introduction to 9 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Land has been made artificially scarce by regulation that locks up land for development. This regulation has made land supply unresponsive to demand.

Measuring Housing Affordability: Median Multiple Median House Price/Median Household Income (Used by UN, OECD and others)

Historic Median Multiple: 3.0 or Less Median House Price/ Median Household Income

Housing Affordability MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE  Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income Figure 26 Greater Price Volatility 

Portland: Cost of Housing HIGH POVERTY AREAS (1.5+ POVERTY RATE): Zip Code data from American Community Survey & 2000 Census Figure 27

Urban containment: incompatible with housing affordability (Cheshire, London School of Economics ) _______________________________________________________________ “Indeed, it is difficult to imagine another plausible cause of the 2008–2009 financial crisis.. In the absence of excessive controls, housing construction would quickly deflate a speculative housing price bubble.” (Jansen & Mills, Northwestern University ) Consequences of Urban Containment ECONOMIC RESEARCH

London Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam -Vermuelen & Ommeren Netherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch. Strong Land Regulation: Less Growth INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Higher unemployment in the UK - Mayo & Angel World Bank 20% less job growth than expected in metropolitan areas with strongest land use regulation -Raven Saks US Federal Reserve Board Higher commercial Development costs -Cheshire & Hilbur London School of Economics

CITIES & TRANSPORTATION Buenos Aires 16-Lane Freeway

Don Valley Parkway & GO Transit Train Why are All These People on the Parkway? TRANSIT IS ABOUT DOWNTOWN

Transit: 45 Minute Job Access METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER 2,000,000: 2008 Average Transit Job Access: 5.6% (NYC: 9.8%)

Work Trip Market Share by Income US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: (ACS)

Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE Chicago Reduced Minority Unemployment With Cars U. of California PRUD’HOMME Mobility Improves Productivity U. Of Paris HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves Productivity “Time is Money”

One Way Work Trip Travel Time HIGH INCOME METROPOLITAN AREAS > 1,000,000

Southern Greenland CITIES & SUSTAINABILITY

Perth, Australia Urban Containment: Ineffective & Expensive COSTS PER TON MANY TIMES THE IPCC STANDARD

Driving Up GHGs Down: US LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES (NEW FUEL STANDARDS) Source: US Department Of Energy GHG Emissions Driving (VMT)

From: EPA, DOE, TRB Urban Containment: Ineffective GROSS EMISSIONS: REDUCTION FROM 2030 BASE

Dubaii TOWARD MORE PROSPEROUS CITIES

Standard of Living at Stake IN AN ALREADY CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT Demographics Pensions Public Debt

The issue is not…. Urban sprawl Urban design Transit versus cars The issue is PEOPLE Standard of living Reducing poverty Putting People First THE NEED FOR RATIONAL PRIORITIES Chicago