Anti-Terrorist Force Protection: Harbor Tactical 3D Simulations for Risk, Consequence Assessment Don Brutzman International Maritime Protection Symposium 13 December 2005

Outline Motivation Business model, access considerations Agent-based tactics modeling Applications Cluster computations to support analyst X3D Graphics modeling Recommendations

Motivation Defend against small-boat attack Evolution of studies on USS COLE attack Assess risk, vulnerabilities, consequences, alternatives Analysis to support 3 classes of customers Harbor defense funding priorities Harbor operations, actual & projected Ships entering port, joining defenders

AT/FP technical approach Model tactical layout of harbor, facilities Agent-based situated tactics for each player 3D visualization Open standards and open source NPS agent toolkit: discrete-event Simkit/Viskit Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics Distributed Interactive Simulation Protocol Scalable, repeatable methodology Suitable for data-driven production, repetition

Business model Too many proprietary toolsets High cost, not sustainable, not interoperable Over time, essential data lost to further use Daylight encourages good behavior Business-friendly open-source licensing Repeatable capabilities extendable over Web Nothing succeeds like success Use proven best practices, everyone wins

Consortia partnerships essential Stable, evolving Web-based standards Also need best practices Capable partners, industry and individual Web3D Consortium Real-time 3D communications using X3D World Wide Consortium for the Grid (W2COG)

Access considerations Hardest technical challenges are science and interoperation, not classification rules F=MA, E=IR, et cetera, writ large & connected XML used for all data Validatable, with self-describing metadata Build unclassified versions, preferably using public well-documented resources Modify data (not code) for classified use

Key Technologies Extensible Markup Language (XML) Validatable data, binary compression Web Services for message exchange Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics ISO-approved interactive visualization Our approach Demonstrate military value of new technology Collaborate, implement, evaluate, report, repeat

XML in 10 Points XML is for structuring data XML looks a bit like HTML XML is text, but isn't meant to be read XML is verbose by design XML is a family of technologies XML is new, but not that new XML leads HTML to XHTML XML is modular XML is basis for RDF and the Semantic Web XML is license-free, platform- independent and well- supported 350+ member companies & institutions in World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) already understand the business case Extensible Markup Language

Potential problem: XML size, bandwidth Replacing data “stovepipes” with XML might be difficult since most tactical streams are highly compressed Tactical showstopper for GIG architectures Common problem in many domains Candidate binary-XML solutions exist NPS XSBC, Sun’s Fast Infoset, others Continuing W3C working group effort provides metrics, use cases and process, working to produce: Efficient XML Interchange (EXI) standard effort underway, where “efficient” = smaller + faster

XML encoding for validation benefits XML schema holds adequate information Tokenization of elements, attributes Strong data typing of value payloads Lossless More efficient than compressed numeric text XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC)

Conclusion: XSBC size, speed already better than gzip! 4.2 MB42.9 MB85.6 MB29.8 MB3.5 MB smallest size, parsing speedup 4-7x !! originals typical compression

Extensible Modeling & Simulation Framework XMSF is Web services for all manner of M&S A composable set of standards, profiles, and recommended practices for web-based M&S Foundational precepts: Internet network technologies, Extensible Markup Language (XML)-based languages, and service-oriented architectures for simple messaging Enable a new generation of distributed M&S applications to emerge, develop, interoperate with tactical systems Many easily repeatable exemplars using Web Services

Simkit, Viskit, Diskit Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Methodology, Open-Source Implementation

Viskit tool for Simkit Visual tool for building, analyzing Simkit models Well-understood methodology for Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Professional quality Unlocks years of NPS student- research effort with reduced programming Digitizing NPS courses for continued analyst use

Simkit technical approach Well-tested Java class libraries DES event queue runs quickly or in real time Event graphs define classes of interest Assembly instantiates entities, collects statistics Visual model Logical, inspectable definition of relationships Saved as validated XML Autogenerates Java source code Analysts get quality code (without being gurus)

Attacker event graph1

Attacker event graph2

Visual model saved as XML

XML model version converted to Java source, when needed by client or cluster

Code generation from XML and corresponding Java compilation are immediate

Viskit tactical scenarios Diverse real-world locations and military players Friendly, neutral and attacker entities 2D tactical layout with 3D visualization Networked DIS for X3D playback Multiple scenarios under development Indian Island refueling pier – “hello world” ABOT oil terminal, Bremerton waterfront Warfighter understandability is essential

Defender event graph

Neutral shipping event graph

Assembly connects event graphs

Tactical supercomputing and linux cluster support for analysts

Trends Commodity processors Inexpensive networking Free, off-the-shelf, open-source software Cheap storage Internet web standards Leading to Cluster Supercomputers Inexpensive, deployable Scalable computing resource (just add PC boxes) Shared via web standards or standalone Tactical supercomputing

Linux clusters can create new resources 5 off-the-shelf new PC boxes + disk storage $10K = 10 processors = 10 Gigaflop Refrigerator-rack footprint easily fits shipboard Industry can provide even higher capabilities Exploring intermediate-level resources for previously supercomputer-level problems Consistent access via grid/web services Applied: Viskit Design of Experiments

Cluster statisics via web page

So what is a cluster good for? First test and view basic tactical scenarios, then Conduct massive replications for statistics Analyst Design of Experiments (DOE) panel Latin Hypercube scheme varies design points Simulation “experiments” are repeatable due to pseudo-random number generator distributions But wait, there’s more… Replay “outliers” to assess vulnerability, learn exactly why certain hostile scenarios succeeded

X3D Graphics modeling ISO-standard 3D graphics interchange for the Web

Emerging Application Suite SavageStudio authoring for creating scenarios Builds both X3D scenes and Viskit assemblies Viskit discrete-event simulation tool Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) protocol for real-time operation Cluster control X3D visualization of scenario progress using open-source Xj3D browser Analytic assessment report generator

ABOT oil terminal Scenario snapshots

Bremerton harbor Scenario snapshots

Analytic assessment report generator Automatically integrate analytic products created during problem setup, exploration Prompt for analyst comments at appropriate locations in the report Success criteria: thorough, easy First study proposed: Pearl Harbor, 1Q 2006 Thesis product, LT Pat Sullivan USN Work in progress

Related Work Autonomous Undermanned Vehicle Workbench

AUV Workbench Underwater, air, surface unmanned vehicles Build scientific tactical decision aid (TDA) that includes full-fidelity physics of motion, collision, sensing Rehearsal: mission planning Reality: real-time tasking and monitoring Replay: playback telemetry Multiple sponsors & partners Open source, open standards, new techology Extensible 3D Graphics (X3D) for large worlds XML, binary compression for GIG Web Services

REMUS mission search, from above

REMUS mission search, from behind

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions, Recommendations Tool development is now mature enough to pursue combined modeling effort Singapore: harbor, island, lines of approach Straits of Malacca Open standards, open source for interoperability Access + sharing issues appear sensitive, solvable Collaborative efforts welcome

Don Brutzman Code USW/Br, Naval Postgraduate School Monterey California USA voice fax Contact