INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I IPCC (2007) and the NAS/NRC Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate Susan Solomon, co-chair, IPCC WGI and senior scientist, NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory

IPCC - WGI IPCC (2001): Houghton (UK) and Ding (China), co-chairs Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis IPCC (2007): Solomon (USA) and Qin (China), co-chairs An NRC report that was an important input to the TAR This committee: an important opportunity for similar synergy through dialogue

IPCC - WGI Time Line Issues WGI panelJan 2007 Lead Author meeting 4 (TBD)Jun 2006 Second draft completeFeb 2006 Lead Author meeting 3 (Christchurch)Dec 2005 First draft completeAug 2005 Lead Author meeting 2 (Beijing)May 2005 Second scoping meetingSep 2003 Zero order draft completeFeb 2005 Lead Author meeting 1 (Trieste)Sep 2004 Lead author teams selected by WGI BureauApr 2004 Panel approval of outlines for reportsNov 2003 First scoping meetingApr 2003 We are here: the outline is in final form and is about to be submitted to the Plenary for approval This committee’s report is due just before WGI authors begin first formal draft

IPCC - WGI What does UNFCCC want? Strong scientific messages telling an integrated story – not a grab bag of topics Clear expository graphics, avoiding “mathematical magic” Clear explanation of uncertainties and limits to understanding Address key questions Skip unnecessary repetition of earlier reports (very important) - this forced tough choices Shorter and “more focussed”

IPCC - WGI Radiative Forcing: A key topic, as in past reports …assess anthropogenic and natural influences on radiative balance Review/update past and estimated future radiative forcing for greenhouse gases, and....for aerosols including indirect effects (sulfate, nitrate, organic, soot….) Land use/surface albedo effect Aviation (e.g., new studies on cloud interactions) Compare with natural forcings (solar, volcanic). Roles of short-lived vs long-lived species Forcing/response relations in the global mean - use and limits of the radiative forcing concept; GWP and other metrics for comparing emissions

IPCC - WGI CO 2 Solar UT O 3 LS O 3 An updated and improved assessment of: Solar Aviation Land use Aerosols! esp. soot! Gases! GWPs and other metrics Joshi et al (2003) More information on dependence of climate change on forcing mechanism

IPCC - WGI How to best convey our message? Many key warming agents live for decades or more All known cooling agents are short- lived AR4: stronger emphasis on timescales

IPCC - WGI Paleoclimate: More links to forcing Use paleoclimatic information to provide greater clarity on what may be natural versus manmade (globally and regionally) Illuminate key vulnerabilities to changes in radiative forcing Paleoclimate as a basis for testing cause and effect relationships (e.g., volcanoes and solar) What happened in the past and why – focus on observations and processes Discuss paleo measurements in greater depth - tree rings, ice cores, etc. More careful analysis of how anomalous the last century has been Review/ update what is known of abrupt climate changes – the potential wild card

IPCC - WGI Compare to models (including volcanoes, solar, and anthropogenic forcing) for more than 1000 years 7 NH records Model with volcanoes, solar, and GHG/aerosol Tambora From Crowley, personal communication

IPCC - WGI Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry: “Beyond radiative forcing” Describe the emerging linkages in understanding and simulating the fully coupled system Carbon cycle / climate interactions – increasing respiration vs photosynthesis, coupling of C and N biogeochemistry, aerosol/diffuse flux linkages…. Global atmospheric chemistry and climate change - processes influencing global ozone and methane in a coupled system, coupling of stratosphere to surface change, …. Air quality and climate change - interactions on new scales, where increasing numbers of people live Aerosols – aerosol/hydrological cycle feedbacks; regional and global scale analyses of coupled aerosol/ chemistry / climate interactions, …. Land surface / hydrology including e.g., fires, dynamic vegetation models Should better identify possible ‘wild cards’ that could emerge in an altered climate state

IPCC - WGI One example of a coupled interaction: Sea-salt emissions = function (wind speed) Transport (advective, convective) and deposition =function(climate) ==> “in my opinion an assessment is needed in AR4” - O. Boucher, Marrakech, 2003 A need to go “beyond radiative forcing” to the fully coupled system of human/climate interactions.

IPCC - WGI Interesting new papers on aerosol forcings and responses at various levels: A key assessment challenge for WG I Menon et al.: black carbon (soot) and Asian precipitation. How well understood are the forcings? Surface fluxes/TOA? Aerosols potentially influence precipitation at microphysical level (precipitation efficiency); sub-grid scale (altered convection); and large scale (altered circulation patterns ). Rostayn and Lohmann: suggesting a link of aerosols to the drought in Africa. See also work by Rosenfeld and others on other aerosol processes that could play a role.

IPCC - WGI Some areas of focus that this committee may wish to consider: Definitional issues: How should we think about surface / tropopause / TOA forcings? What is a forcing and what is a feedback? Aerosols: direct and indirect effects; aerosol linkages to land use effects (e.g., biomass burning, wind stress, etc.) Air quality/climate: a two-way story Solar and volcanic forcings: satellite era and before, including paleo. What is a forcing and what is a feedback, across a range of time scales?

IPCC - WGI Top-of-the-atmosphere Surface (Wm -2 ) March 97 Definitions: Radiative processes and their spatial distributions Implications for radiative forcing? And the more general question: what is a forcing and what is a feedback?

IPCC - WGI Particle number, size, precipitation efficiency, liquid water content are all factors in climate Do continental clouds have different feedbacks to aerosols than marine clouds? New research on black carbon (soot) and on gradients in radiative forcing (sulfate) Coupling of land use/vegetation/fires/aerosols issues Aerosols: A Major Issue

IPCC - WGI UN, World Urbanization Prospects The 2002 Revision Air Quality/Climate: More people are living the experience

IPCC - WGI Mexico City from Satellites GOME NO 2 December average Data courtesy J. Burrows, U. Bremen Processing by S. Massie, NCAR

IPCC - WGI FAR SAR TAR AR4 Solar Forcing: Three full solar cycles of direct observations of the solar irradiance. What are the constraints on solar/volcanic effects over the past three cycles, compared to human activities?

IPCC - WGI Past climates: what do they tell us about radiative forcing and responses, as well as feedbacks? Last Ice age Last interglacial

IPCC - WGI Concluding remarks There are many opportunities for synergy; this presentation is a ‘sampler’. Timing IPCC/NRC is complementary Thanks for this initial discussion