“Exuberant Bubble” or “Fundamentally Sound” Where are Real Estate Prices Going? The Metro NY Chapter Appraisal Institute Mark Pomykacz, MAI President With Guest Speakers: Peter F. Korpacz, MAI Peter F. Korpacz, MAI Robert A. Knakal Robert A. Knakal Frank Nothaft, Ph.D. Frank Nothaft, Ph.D. Friday, September 30, 2005 Steven L. Newman Institute Baruch College Barry Hersh, AICP Associate Director Presented Jointly by:

The Panelists  Peter F. Korpacz, MAI, Director of the Global Strategic Real Estate Research Group of PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC),  Robert A. Knakal Founding Partner of Massey Knakal Realty Services.  Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist for Freddie Mac

Introduction Mark Pomykacz, MAI  President of the Metro NY Chapter of the Appraisal Institute  Managing Partner of Federal Appraisal & Consulting LLC Real estate and business appraisal and advisory firm  Member of the National Board of Directors of the Appraisal Institute  Teaches Income Capitalization, USPAP and Seminars for the Appraisal Institute and New York University  State certified general real estate appraiser in six states  Published several articles on appraisal and property taxes  Specializes in the appraisal of complex issues, such as IRS, SEC and other financial reporting, and in the appraisal of complex properties and assets such as utilities, power plants and telecommunications assets

“Exuberant Bubble ” Background “Fundamentally Sound”

PRECEPTION vs REALITY  Just the facts, Ma’am  Talking about it, can make it happen "That greater tendency toward self-correction has made the cyclical stability of the economy less dependent on the actions of macroeconomic policymakers, whose responses often have come too late or have been misguided,“ the Man, Tuesday, Sept 27, 2005

New York Times Articles

Wall Street Journal Articles

New York Times vs. Wall Street Journal

New York Times and Wall Street Journal

New York Times vs. Wall Street Journal

Appraisers in Action Survey of Members of the Metropolitan Chapter of the Appraisal Institute

Housing Bubble Survey – Chart 1

Housing Bubble Survey – Chart 2

Housing Bubble Survey – Chart 3

Housing Bubble Survey – Chart 4

Housing Bubble Survey – Chart 5

Housing Bubble Survey – Chart 6

NCREIF vs. CPI – Chart 1

NCREIF vs. CPI – Chart 2

Are we in a bubble? “History cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal”

Are we in a bubble? Translation – “What! Where yous been livin? In a bubble! And Don’t touch my hair”

I got a bridge to sell