Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 World Population Growth

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Population Dynamics

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Recall a Point Made by Malthus: Population always has the potential to increase more rapidly than the production of food supplies. Boserup’s Theory: Historically within human populations production tends to Expand to the level demanded by population Population Dynamics Population Growth: Birthrate minus mortality Population Pressure: The tendency for population levels to expand to the carrying capacity. This is often translated into social pressure to increase production Fertility Rate: Live Births per 1000 women aged in a given year. Birth Rate: The number of live births per thousand in a given year. Fecundity: The physiological capacity to produce a live child.

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Comparison of pelvic apertures in five primates

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Human, Australopithecine, and Chimpanzee Birth Processes

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Key Points of Natural Selection in The Human Life Cycle n Implantation of the Zygote ~ first three weeks n Early development of the embryo ~ first trimester n Birth ~ infants n Birth ~ mothers 14 ~ 30 years n First two years ~ disease in infants n Late Adulthood ~ cumulative disease load, dental decay

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation n Care of infants and children –Heavy work loads and restricted diets for pregnant women –Direct Abortion (universal phenomena) –Infanticide Indirect Direct

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation n Treatment of women and girls –Forced or incidental malnutrition –Polygyny –Surgical mutilation n Intensity and duration of breast- feeding –Extended Amenorrhea due to breast feeding –Lowered Fucundity

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Avenues of Pre-industrial Population Regulation n Frequency of, and prohibitions against, intercourse –Social proscriptions against sexual intercourse –Restrictions on the age of marriage

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Important Factors Governing Fertility Rates n Age at first menses n Age of marriage/sexual activity n Disease Load n Nutritional Health n Mortality

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Foraging Reproduction n Moderate death and birth rates n Value of children: moderate n Birth control low fat diet for women prolonged breastfeeding induced abortion n Few reproduction specialists

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Agricultural Reproduction n High growth rate n Value of children: high n Increased reliance on direct means of birth control herbs induced abortion n Midwives, herbalists

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Industrial Reproduction n Negative growth for industrialized countries n Value of children: mixed n High growth in developing countries n Birth control grounded in science in vitro fertilization n Highly developed reproduction specialists

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture’s affect on Reproduction Family traditions…. Government policies…. International organizations…. ….influence: when to start having sex how often who with how many children to have

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 n 450 plant species worldwide contain natural substances that can be used to control fertility n Religious, economic and social factors affect decisions to induce abortion Fertility Control

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Peas as Birth Control? Historically population growth in Tibet has been stable Tibetans subsisted on barley and peas When mice were fed a diet of 20% peas, litter sizes dropped by half When mice are fed a diet of 30% peas, they failed to reproduce at all

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture and Death Infanticide The deliberate killing of an offspring due to child deformity or sickness if child fails to meet parental expectation because of poverty

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture and Death Suicide.... Catholicism ….is a sin Buddhism ….has been used to make political statements Asia and S Pacific ….is a noble act Social changes, brought about by industrialization, are often not matched by people’s ability to attain new goals leading to high suicide rates (especially among youth).

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Culture and Death n Spousal Abuse n Warfare –accounts for high proportion of male deaths in some horticultural societies n Ethnocide –destruction of a culture n Genocide –physical extermination of a cultural group

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 A.D A.D A.D B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C. 1+ million years Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black Death—The Plague A.D A.D A.D Future Billions World Population Growth Through History Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 123 (1930) 33 (1960) 14 (1974) 13 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 15 (2028) 26 (2054) World Population Growth, in Billions Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (medium scenario).

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002

Population of the United States, by Age and Sex, (millions) malefemale

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions MaleFemaleMaleFemale Age Age Distribution of the World’s Population Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Desire for Smaller Families Women With Two Children Who Say They Want No More Children Percent Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys,

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Billions Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Less Developed Countries More Developed Countries Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002

Trends in Aging, by World Region Population Ages 65 and Older Percent Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods Millions Percent increase per year Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Urban Population Percent Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2001 Revision (medium scenario), Trends in Urbanization, by Region

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions Women of Childbearing Age Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Copyright © Allyn & Bacon 2002 U.S. Population Density per Square Mile

Regional HIV/AIDS statistics and features, end of 2002 * The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 2002, using 2002 population numbers ** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission among men who have sex with men Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa & Middle East South and South- East Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America Caribbean Eastern Europe & Central Asia Western Europe North America Australia & New Zealand TOTAL late ’70s early ’80s late ’80s late ’70s early ’80s late ’70s early ’80s early ’90s late ’70s early ’80s late ’70s early ’80s late ’70s early ’80s 29.4 million million 1.2 million 1.5 million million million 8.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 58% 55% 36% 24% 30% 50% 27% 25% 20% 7% 50% Hetero Hetero, IDU IDU, Hetero, MSM MSM, IDU, Hetero Hetero, MSM IDU MSM, IDU MSM, IDU, Hetero MSM Epidemi c started Adults & children living with HIV/AIDS Adult prevalenc e rate * % of HIV- positive adults who are women Main mode(s) of transmission for those living with HIV/AIDS ** Adults & children newly infected with HIV 3.5 million million

Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002 Total: 42 million Western Europe North Africa & Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa 29.4 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.2 million South & South-East Asia 6 million Australia & New Zealand North America Caribbean Latin America 1.5 million East Asia & Pacific 1.2 million

Estimated number of adults and children newly infected with HIV during 2002 Total: 5 million Western Europe North Africa & Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa 3.5 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia East Asia & Pacific South & South-East Asia Australia & New Zealand500 North America Caribbean Latin America

Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 2002 Total: 3.1 million Western Europe North Africa & Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia East Asia & Pacific South & South-East Asia Australia & New Zealand<100 North America Caribbean Latin America

Children (<15 years) estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 2002 Western Europe North Africa & Middle East sub-Saharan Africa 2.8 million Eastern Europe & Central Asia East Asia & Pacific South & South-East Asia Australia & New Zealand < 200 North America Caribbean Latin America Total: 3.2 million