Figure 6.1 Crowded street in China. Together, China and India have 36% of the world’s population and the resource use per person in these countries is projected to grow rapidly as they become more modernized (Case Study, p. 15).

 1.6 million added each week. Estimated 2.4 billion more people by 2050 Estimated 2.4 billion more people by 2050 Can world provide adequate standard of living w/o causing widespread environmental damage? Can world provide adequate standard of living w/o causing widespread environmental damage?  Some analysts: already too many collectively degrading earth’s natural capital Is it the 82% of pop in developing countries? Is it the 82% of pop in developing countries? High resource consumption in developed countries? High resource consumption in developed countries?  Other analysts: technology has allowed us to overcome the environmental resistance that all populations face Can we continue to rely on technological innovation? Can we continue to rely on technological innovation?

 Views on population regulation Violation of religious and moral beliefs Violation of religious and moral beliefs Intrusion into privacy and freedom Intrusion into privacy and freedom  Proponents of slowing/stopping growth Already not providing basic needs for 1 in 5 (1.4 billion) Already not providing basic needs for 1 in 5 (1.4 billion) Warn of serious consequences Warn of serious consequences  Death rates increase because of declining environmental conditions (already seen in Africa)  Resource use & environmental degradation increase in developed and rapidly developing countries  increased environmental stresses:  Infectious diseases, Biodiversity losses, Water shortages, Traffic congestion, Pollution of the seas, Climate change

 Concept 6-1 We do not know how long we can continue increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for humans without seriously degrading the life-support system for humans and many other species.

 Three major factors account for increase in pop size: Movement into new habitats and climate zones Early and modern agriculture methods Control of infectious diseases through  Sanitation systems  Antibiotics  Vaccines   decreased death rates and increased birth rates

 Rate of pop growth has slowed, but still exponential—1.22% annually. 82 million added in 2008, or 225,000/day  Growth is unevenly distributed globally. In 2008, 1.2 million added in developed countries (i.e., GR, 0.1% annually) 80.8 million added to developing countries (i.e., GR, 1.5% annually)  Projected pop size: between 7.8 and 10.7 billion Depends on avg. # of babies women are likely to have. 97% of this growth will occur in developing countries where there is acute poverty.

 In this century, J-shaped growth will shift to logistic S-shaped because of various factors that limit growth.  How many people can the earth support indefinitely? Some say 2 billion Others, 30 billion With current food production, only 10 billion  Perhaps a better question: What is the optimum sustainable population? Cultural carrying capacity – optimum level that would allow most to live in reasonable comfort and freedom without impairing the ability of the planet to sustain future generations.

 Humans have altered 83% of the earth’s land surface with the help of technology to meet our growing needs and wants.  Can the human population grow indefinitely? Studies of other species show that no pop can grow indefinitely. How long can we continue to increase earth’s carrying capacity by sidestepping many factors that sooner or later limit the growth of any population?  Thomas Malthus and population growth: 1798  No one knows how close we are to environmental limits. Mounting evidence suggests that we are degrading the natural capital that keep us and other species alive and supports our economies.

 Concept 6-2A Population size increases because of births and immigration and decreases through deaths and emigration.  Concept 6-2B The average number of children born to women in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines population size.

 Human populations of countries and cities grow or decline through the interplay of three factors. Births (fertility) Deaths (mortality) Migration  Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)  Crude birth rate – the number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year.  Crude death rate – number of death per 1000 people in a population in a given year.

 Another measurement used in population studies is fertility rate—the number of children born to a woman during her lifetime.  Two types of fertility rates affect a countries population size and growth rate.

 Replacement-level fertility rate – the average number of children that couples in a population must bear to replace themselves. 2.1 in developed, as high as 2.5 in some developing countries. If all couples had an average of only 2.1 children, they would not be contributing to pop growth. But if all of today’s girl children also have 2.1 children, the world’s pop would continue to grow for 50 more years.  Total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born to women in a population during their reproductive years. 1.6 in developed countries (down from 2.5 in 1950) 2.8 in developing countries (down from 6.5 in 1950)

 There has been an overall drop in TFR and birth rates (Figures 6-4 and 6-5), though population is still growing faster than an other developed country.  From 1900 to 2008, pop increase fourfold from 76 to 304 million. Projections: 430 million by 2050; 571 million,  In contrast, population growth in other developed countries has slowed. High per capita ecological footprint by each new addition  enormous environmental impact.  Some amazing changes took place in the 20 th century (Figure 6-6), which led to dramatic increases in per capita resource use.

See p. 127, 2 nd to last paragraph for other changes.

 Children as part of the labor force  Cost of raising and educating children  Availability of private and public pension  Urbanization  Educational and employment opportunities for women

 Infant mortality rate – the number of children per 1000 live births who die before one year of age.  Average age of a woman at birth of first child  Availability of legal abortions  Availability of reliable birth control methods  Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

 Two useful indicators of overall health of people in a country or region: Life expectancy – Average number of years a newborn can be expected to live.  Globally, increased from 48 to 69 from 1955 to 2008  In US, same years, 47 to 78  In poorest countries, currently 49 or less. Infant mortality rate – defined above  Why are people living longer and fewer infants dying? Increased food supply and distribution Better nutrition Medical advances Improved sanitation Safer water supplies

 More is spent per person in US on healthcare than in any other country, yet 41 other countries have longer life expectancies. Reasons? 45 million Americans lack health insurance US has one of the world’s highest obesity rates.  Infant mortality, viewed as one of the best indicators of a societies quality of life because it reflects a country’s general level of nutrition and health care.  U.S. infant mortality rate high due to Inadequate health care for poor women during pregnancy and their infants Drug addiction among pregnant women High birth rate among teenagers

 The third factor in population change is migration: the movement of people into and out of specific geographic areas.  Why migrate? Economic improvement Religious freedom Political freedom Wars Environmental refugees  25 million in 2005  50 million in 2010 (?)  In a warmer planet, could soar to 250 million before end of century.

 Since 1820, the US has admitted almost twice as many immigrants and refugees as all other countries combined. Legal immigration rates have varied (Figure 6-7) because of changes in immigration laws and rates of economic growth. Currently, legal and illegal immigration accounts for 40% of annual pop growth.  Historical role of immigration in the U.S. A place for opportunity for the world’s poor and oppressed and as a source of cultural diversity Between 1820 and 1960 most legal immigration came from Europe. Since 1960, most from Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), followed by Europe (14%).

 Polls show 60% in favor of reducing legal immigration and there is intense controversy over what to do about illegal immigration. Proponents for reducing  Social services make US a magnet for poor  Allow US to stabilize population Opponents against reducing  Diminish the historical role of immigration to US  2006 study suggests that immigrants and their descendants pay taxes, take menial and low-paying jobs, add cultural vitality, and help US succeed in global economy.  Last paragraph of section 6-2: Interesting note regarding the maintaining of ratio of worker to retirees.

 Concept 6-3 The numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older age groups determine how fast a population grows or declines.

 Age structure categories – the distribution of males and females among age groups in a population. Prereproductive ages Reproductive ages Postreproductive ages

 What is one of the world’s most important population statistics? Nearly 28% of the people on the planet were under 15 year old in  That’s 1.9 billion that will move into their prime reproductive years.  In developing countries: 30% (41% in Africa)  17% in developed countries (20% in the USA and 16% in Europe)  Figure 6-9 shows then where most all future population growth will come from

 Changes in a country’s age structure have long-lasting economic and social impacts.  The baby boom, 1946 – 1964 added 79 million people. Over time this group looks like a bulge moving up though the country’s age structure (Fig. 6-10). Baby boomers make up almost half of all adult Americans   Dominate the population’s demand for goods and services.  Major influence on who gets elected and what laws are passed  After 2011, number of older Americans  65 years will increase from about 13% to 25% by 2043.

 Slow decline Manageable  Rapid decline Severe economic and social problems  Puts severe strain on government budgets because these individuals consume an increasingly larger share of medical care, social security funds, and other costly public services, which are funded by a decreasing number of working tax payers.

 A large number of deaths from AIDS can disrupt a country’s social and economic structure by removing significant numbers of young adults from its age structure. 25 million killed by 2008 Loss of most productive workers and trained personnel Sharp drop in life expectancy  International community called upon to Reduce the spread of HIV through education and health care Financial assistance and volunteers to help compensate for the missing young-adult generation.

 Concept 6-4 Experience indicates that the most effective ways to slow human population growth are to encourage family planning, to reduce poverty, and to elevate the status of women.

 Demographic transition Hypothesis developed by examining birth and death rates in 19 th century western Europe As countries become industrialized, first death rates decrease and then birth rates. Four stages (Figure 6-12) :  Preindustrial  Transitional  Industrial  Postindustrial  Modern tech and family planning in developing countries

 Factors that hinder demographic transition: Population growth to rapid, outpaces economic growth and overwhelms local life-support systems.  Keeps population at Stage 2—Demographic trap HIV/AIDS may take countries back to Stage1. Other factors  Shortages of scientists and engineers  Shortages of skilled workers  Insufficient financial capital  Large debts to developed countries  Decreased economic assistance from developed countries since 1985

 Family planning provides educational and clinical services that helps couples chose how many children to have and when to have them. Provides information on birth spacing, birth control, and heath care for pregnant women and infants.  A major factor in deducing the number of birth throughout most of the world. Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs in developing countries.

 Despite success in many developing countries in reducing TFRs 42% of all pregnancies in are unplanned, 26% end in abortion. An estimated 201 million couples want to limit the number and determine the spacing of their children, but lack access to family planning services.  Meeting such needs would, annually  Prevent 52 million unwanted pregnancies  22 million induced abortions  1.4 million infant deaths  pregnancy-related deaths  Analysts call for an expansion of FP programs to include: teenagers, sexually active unmarried women, and men

 Studies show that women tend to have fewer children if they are Educated Hold a paying job outside the home Live in societies where their human rights are not suppressed.  In areas of Africa, Latin America, and Asia, women do almost all domestic work and child care for little or no pay 60-80% of work associated with growing food, and gathering wood and animal dung for use as fuel and for hauling water (Fig. 6-13). “For poor women the only holiday is when you are asleep”  Sons more valued than daughters “Many women in the developing world are trapped in poverty by illiteracy, poor health, and unwanted fertility. All these contribute to environmental degradation and tighten the grip of poverty.”

 Has made impressive effort to feed its people and control its population In 1960s, established most extensive, intrusive and strict population control.  Only alternative to mass starvation Crude birth rate cut in half and TFR dropped from 5.7 to 1.6 Despite effort, population will peak about 1.46 billion by 2033  Policies that encourage fewer children Discourages premarital sex Urges delay of marriage and limit families to one child Married couples who pledge to have no more than one child  More food, larger pensions, free school tuition and preferential employment opportunities for their child. Provides couples with free sterilization, contraceptives and abortion  Gender imbalance

 World’s fastest growing economy But an aging population Has environmental problems that could ultimately limit economic growth  19% if world’s population, but only 7% of world’s freshwater and cropland, 4% of its forests, and 2% of its oil.  Only 15% of its land protected on paper Only 29% of population has access to adequate sanitation In 2005, China’s deputy minister said:  “Our raw materials are scarce, we don’t’ have enough land, and our population is constantly growing. Half of our water in our seven largest rivers is completely useless. One-third of the urban population is breathing polluted air.” As more people move into the middle-class, per capita consumption increases

 Five decades of attempting to control population has had only modest success. In 1952, pop size was 400 million; 2008, 1.1 billion. In 2015, will be most populous country, by 2050, projections estimate 1.76 billion. Even though Indian government provides information on the advantages of small families and made family planning available throughout the country  TFR currently at 2.8  90% of couple are aware of at least one method of birth control, only 48% use one. Population control: gender bias

 Poverty 82% of rural population lack adequate sanitation 80% of its people struggling to live on less than $2/day Malnutrition suffered by 40% of population and 50% of children  Environmental problems 17% of world’s people, only 2.3% of world’s land resources and 2% forests Half cropland degraded from erosion and overgrazing 2/3 of water seriously polluted Many cities suffer from serious pollution. Huge and growing middle class increasing per capita ecological footprint