Technology Applicability for Prediction & Recognition of Piracy Efforts NATO ASI September 2011 Salamanca, Spain

Approach Decompose the process of predicting and characterizing piracy attacks (the mission) into a set of technical issues (i.e. needed capabilities which technology might help provide) For each such issue, list potential technical solutions in terms of their maturity and potential effectiveness in resolving the issue

Definitions and Metrics (1 of 2) Mission Capability: the ability to predict and recognize piracy efforts sufficiently to support effective responses Issue: A technical problem relevant to achieving the mission capability Criticality: the degree to which achieving the mission capability depends on resolving the given issue: i.e. finding a solution to the given problem: Analogous Applications: other mission capabilities that involve related technical issues MostLeast

Definitions and Metrics (2 of 2) Applicable Techniques: technologies or designs that might be used to solve the given issue Effectiveness: the degree to which the given technique could provide a solution to the given problem: Maturity: the technology readiness level (TRL) of the given technique (defined in the next chart): Recommendations: Suggested actions for NATO or NATO members to solve the given issues LeastMost TRL 0-1TRL 2-3TRL 4-5TRL 6-7TRL 8-9

Technology Readiness Levels TRL 1Basic principles observed & reported TRL 2Technology concept & application formulated TRL 3Proof of concept TRL 4Component validated in lab environment TRL 5Component validated in relevant environment TRL 6Prototype demonstration in relevant environment TRL 7Prototype demonstration in operations environment TRL 8System completed and qualified through test & demonstration TRL 9System proven through successful mission operations

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Lower-Level Knowledge Development (1 of 2) Issue Criticality Analogous Applications Applicable Techniques Effective ness Maturity Recommen dations Wide Area Sensor Coverage Cooperative (e.g. AIS) Patrol Aircraft\ Long Endurance UAV Space Imagery Data Dissemination Data Alignment Multi-INT registration Poisson Point registr. Evidence conditioning Uncertainty Representation Bayesian Evidential Semantic Data Association MHT (J)PDA PHD

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Lower-Level Knowledge Development (2 of 2) Issue Criticality Analogous Applications Applicable Techniques Effective ness Maturity Recommen dations Target Detection Model-Based Anomaly-Based Target Location/ Tracking KF, EKF, IMM Particle Filter PDF Target Type Classification Statistical Pattern Rec Syntactic Neural Net Explanation-Based Target Attributes Syntactic Explanation-Based Target Activity Case-Based Correlation-Based

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Higher-Level Knowledge Development (1 of 2) Issue Criticality Analogous Applications Applicable Techniques Effective ness Maturity Recommen dations Data Mining Semantic Extraction Numeric/Symbolic Data Fusion Complexity Management Situation Representation Ontology Management Situation Model Management

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Higher-Level Knowledge Development (2 of 2) Issue Criticality Analogous Applications Applicable Techniques Effective ness Maturity Recommen dations Relationship Characterization Network Characterization Situation Characterization Situation Tracking Scenario Recognition Threat Event Prediction Indications and Warning

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy: Decision Support Issue Criticality Analogous Applications Applicable Techniques Effective ness Maturity Recommen dations Situation Presentation Presentation of Situation Dynamics Uncertainty Presentation Conditional/Counter- factual Presentation Data Entry Hard/ Soft Data Fusion Operator Control Collaboration Tools

Threat Assessment Functions Threat Event Prediction: Determining likely threat events (“threatened events” or “attacks”): who, what, where, when, why, how Indications and Warning: Recognition that an attack is imminent or under way Threat Entity Detection and Characterization: determining the identities, attributes, composition, location/track, activity capability, intent of agents and other entities involved in a threatened or current attack Attack (or Threat Event) Assessment: –Responsible parties (country, organization, individuals, etc.) and attack roles; –Intended target(s) of attack; –Intended effect (e.g. physical, political, economic, psychological effects); –Threat capability (e.g. weapon and delivery system characteristics); –Force composition, coordination and tactics (goal and plan decomposition); Consequence Assessment: Estimation & prediction of event outcome states (threatened situations) and cost/utility to the responsible parties, to affected parties or to system user. Can include both intended & unintended consequences