Challenges and Opportunities for the P/C Insurance Industry Professional Insurance Wholesalers Association Annual Dinner New York, NY October 25, 2011 Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY Office:  Cell: (917)  

2 What in the World Is Going On? Is the World Becoming a Riskier Place? What Are the Implications for Insurance and Risk Management?

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 3 Uncertainty, Risk, and Fear Abound US Debt/Budget Crisis and S&P Downgrade  Short-term: Slow Growth/A Double Dip Recession?  Long-term: Era of Fiscal Austerity? Housing Crisis Persistently High Unemployment European Sovereign Debt Crises Earthquakes/Nuclear Reactor Meltdowns Record Tornadoes, Floods, Wildfires, in the US Manmade Disasters  Deepwater Horizon, “Fracking” Resurgent Terrorism Risk? Political Upheaval in the Middle East China on Track to Be #1 Economy in the World  Is the U.S. era over? Are “Black Swans” everywhere or does it just seem that way?

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 4 US Real GDP Growth, quarterly* *Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 10/2011 issue (forecasts); Insurance Information Institute. Demand for insurance continues to be affected by a sluggish economy Real GDP Growth (%) 2011 started slowly, but somewhat higher growth is expected in the rest of the year. Worst quarterly drop since 1958:q1 (-11.1%)

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 5 A Reliable Recession Indicator? Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. Real GDP Change, Y-o-Y, Quarterly, :Q2 In a calendar quarter, whenever the real GDP change (compared to the prior-year same quarter) is under 2%, the economy is either in recession or goes into recession within a year.

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 6 Unemployment and Underemployment Rate “Normality”: Years to Go September 2011 unemployment rate (U-3) was 9.1%. Peak rate in the last 30 years: 10.8% in Nov - Dec 1982 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. U-6 is now 16.5% January 2000 through September 2011, Seasonally Adjusted (%) Gap between U-3 and U-6 is normally 4 percentage points but is now 7.4 points U-6 hit 17.5% in Oct 2009 Recession

Monthly Change in Private Employment (Thousands) Private employers added 2.88 million jobs in , after having shed 4.66 million jobs in 2009 and 3.81 million in Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Insurance Information Institutehttp:// Monthly Losses in Dec. 08–Mar. 09 Were the Largest in the Post-WW II Period Private employers added jobs in every one of the last 21 months Not Enough: We need to average about 125,000 new jobs (private and public) per month just to absorb labor force growth January 2007 through September 2011

Monthly Change in Government Employment (Thousands) Employment by government at all levels dropped every month in 2011 except August. Total (net) government jobs lost through September: 267,000. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Insurance Information Institutehttp:// January 2009 through September 2011 Census

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 9 U.S. Employment in the Direct P/C Insurance Industry: 1990–2011* *As of August 2011; Not seasonally adjusted; Does not including agents & brokers. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. Thousands As of August 2011, P/C insurance industry employment was down by 37,300 or 7.6% to 453,800 since the recession began in Dec (compared to overall US employment decline of 5.2%).

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 10 U.S. Employment in the Reinsurance Industry: 1990–2011* Thousands *As of August 2011; Not seasonally adjusted; Does not including agents & brokers. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. As of August 2011, US employment in the reinsurance industry was up by 900 or 3.3% to 27,800 since the recession began in Dec (compared to overall US employment decline of 5.2%).

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 11 U.S. Employment in Insurance Agencies & Brokerages: 1990–2011* Thousands *As of August 2011; Not seasonally adjusted. Includes all types of insurance. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. As of August 2011, employment at insurance agencies and brokerages was down by 38,300 or 5.6% to 641,300 since the recession began in Dec (compared to overall US employment decline of 5.2%).

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 12 U.S. Employment in Insurance Claims Adjusting: 1990–2011* Thousands *As of August 2011; Not seasonally adjusted. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. As of August 2011, claims adjusting employment was down by 4,000 or 7.7% to 48,200 since the recession began in Dec (compared to overall US employment decline of 5.2%). Katrina, Rita, Wilma

Economic Drivers of P/C Insurance Exposures 13

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 14 (Millions of Units) Private Housing Starts, F Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce (history) ; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/2011), forecasts; Insurance Information Institute. Weak home construction forecast implies little exposure growth likely for Homeowners insurers for the next few years, but multi-family housing starts are picking up. Through August 2011 we’re slightly behind this pace

Single vs. Multi-Family Housing Starts, Annually, * *seasonally-adjusted annual rate, through Sept 2011 Source: US Census Bureau at Thousands of Units, Multi-Family The slump is mainly in single-family housing, but starts of multi-family units also plunged in Multi-family-unit starts are rising in 2011, but single-family starts are still hitting lows. Thousands of Units, Single Family Multi-family plunge didn’t begin until 2009 Single family plunge began in 2006

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 16 (Millions of Units) The Car-Buying Slump Means Roads With More Aging Vehicles Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/11); Insurance Information Institute; USA Today 8/10/2011 edition (AAA Survey). In what once was a “normal” 3-year span, new cars would replace about 35 million old cars, but in only about 27 million old cars were replaced 2011 AAA Survey: 1 in 4 drivers have neglected repairs and maintenance because of the economy

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 17 Miles Driven*, 1990–2011 *Moving 12-month total Notes: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Latest data (as of 10/24/2011) is for 12 months ended August Sources: Federal Highway Administration ( ); National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. Billions Sharp rise in gas prices, then pullback Will the trend toward hybrid and non-gasoline- powered vehicles affect miles driven? What about the aging and retirement of the baby boomers? Growth per Decade 1999 vs. 1989: 27.2% 2009 vs. 1999: 9.4% Some of the growth in miles driven is due to population growth: 1999 vs. 1989: 10.5% 2009 vs. 1999: 12.6%

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 18 Recent History of Crude Oil Prices* Monthly, Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. *per barrel of light, sweet crude oil for future delivery as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX); last weekly close in each month, except Decembers (which are 12/31 closing prices) Sources: NYSE at NBER (recession dates) Is this another like spurt in gas prices? Gas/oil prices began rising a year before the Great Recession started $ per barrel Or is it headed down again?

Do Changes in Miles Driven Affect Auto Collision Claim Frequency? Sources: Federal Highway Administration ( ISO Fast Track Monitoring System, Private Passenger Automobile Fast Track Data: 2d Qtr. 2011, published September 30, 2011, and earlier reports. Paid Claim Frequency = (# of paid claims)/(Earned Car Years) x 100 “Pay-As-You-Go” Auto Insurance: Fluctuations in miles driven will affect exposure The frequency drop is slowing *data for 2011 covers 12 months ending 6/30/2011

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 20 Number of Private Business Establishments, 2001:Q1-2011:Q1* *data for 2011:Q1 are preliminary Note: quarters when the economy was in recession are indicated by orange bars Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics “Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages”; Insurance Information Institute The number of employees in new businesses is typically lower than the number in formerly-operating businesses that closed. Millions No net growth in number of businesses from 2007:Q3 to 2011:Q1.

Catastrophe Loss Developments and Trends is Rewriting Catastrophe Loss and Insurance History

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 22 Global Catastrophe Loss Summary: First Half Is Already (as of June 30) the Highest Loss Year on Record Globally  Extraordinary accumulation of severe natural catastrophe: Earthquakes, tsunami, floods and tornadoes are the primary causes of loss $260 Billion in Economic Losses Globally  New record for the first six months, exceeding the previous record of $220B in 2005  Economy is more resilient than most pundits presume $55 Billion in Insured Losses Globally  More than double the first half 2010 amount  Over 4 times the 10-year average $27 Billion in Economic Losses in the US  Represents a 129% increase over the $11.8 billion amount through the first half of 2010 $17.3 Billion in Insured Losses in the US Arising from 100 CAT Events  Represents a 162% increase over the $6.6 billion amount through the first half of 2010

Number of Federal Disaster Declarations, * *Through October 24, Sources: Federal Emergency Management Administration at ; Insurance Information Institute. There have been 2,039* federal disaster declarations since Note that 2005 was a relatively low year for number of disaster declarations in the period, but that year included Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The number of federal disaster declarations set a new record in From , the average number of declarations per year was The average number from was The average number from was 31.7.

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 24 US Insured Catastrophe Losses *First three quarters of 2011 (est). Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B. Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute. First half 2011 US CAT losses already exceed losses from all of Even modest hurricane losses will put 2011 among the worst ever for CATs CAT Losses Surged on Near- Record Tornado Activity ($ Billions) 2000s: A Decade of Disaster : $202B (up 122%) : $91B

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Costliest World Insurance Losses, * Insured Losses, 2010 Dollars, $ Billions *Through June 20, disaster figures are estimates; Figures include federally insured flood losses, where applicable. Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; AIR Worldwide, RMS, Eqecat; Insurance Information Institute. Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado season would be the 7 th costliest event in global insurance history 3 of the 11 most expensive catastrophes in world history occurred in the past 9 months

26 P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview Profit Recovery Will Be Slowed by High CATs, Low Interest Rates, Diminishing Reserve Releases

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 27 Soft Market Persisted in 2010 but Growth Returned: More in 2011? (Percent) *2011 figure is an estimate based on 1H data. Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute. Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3- Year Decline Since NWP was up 0.9% in :1H growth was +2.6%

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 28 Criteria Necessary for a “Market Turn”: All Four Criteria Must Be Met CriteriaStatusComments Sustained Period of Large Underwriting Losses Not Yet Happened Apart from Q2:2011, overall p/c underwriting losses remain modest Combined ratios (ex-Q2 CATs) still in low 100s (vs at onset of last hard market) Prior-year reserve releases continue reduce u/w losses, boost ROEs Material Decline in Surplus/ Capacity Surplus is At/Near Record High Surplus hit a record $565B as of 3/31/11 Analysts est. excess surplus of $75-$100B Some excess capacity may still remain in reinsurance markets Weak growth in demand for insurance is insufficient to absorb much excess capacity Tight Reinsurance Market Somewhat in Place Higher prices in Asia/Pacific Modestly improved pricing for US risks Renewed Underwriting & Pricing Discipline Not Broadly Evident Commercial lines pricing trends remain negative Competition remains intense as many seek to maintain market share Terms & conditions—no broad tightening Sources: Barclays Capital; Insurance Information Institute.

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 29 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2011:H1* * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=109.1 Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.; III Estimated for 2011:H1 (Q1 actual ex-M&FG was 102.2). Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Cyclical Deterioration Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Avg. CAT Losses, More Reserve Releases Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 30 P/C Reserve Development, 1992–2011E Reserve releases remained strong in 2010 but are expected to taper off in 2011 Note: 2005 reserve development excludes a $6 billion loss portfolio transfer between American Re and Munich Re. Including this transaction, total prior year adverse development in 2005 was $7 billion. The data from 2000 and subsequent years excludes development from financial guaranty and mortgage insurance. Sources: Barclay’s Capital; A.M. Best. Prior year reserve releases totaled $8.8 billion in the first half of 2010, up from $7.1 billion in the first half of 2009

A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What It Once Was: Investment Impact on ROEs Combined Ratio / ROE * 2009 and 2010 figures are return on average statutory surplus figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers figure is estimate through first half. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data. Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s Depressed Investment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs A combined ratio of about 100 generated ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10, 10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979

Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2011* *Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates figure is an estimate based on annualized ROAS for H1 data. Note: Data for exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. For 2011:H1 ROAS = 1.7% including M&FG. Sources: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best. 1977:19.0% 1987:17.3% 1997:11.6% 2007:12.3% 1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2% 10 Years 2011: 2.3%* History suggests next ROE peak will be in ROE 1975: 2.4%

Investments 33 Interest-Based Investments Benefit from Higher Inflation

Bond Yields Tend to Follow Inflation Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (history); Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 10/11 issue (forecast) Recession

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 35 U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yields: A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2011* *Monthly, through September 2011 Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes. Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for nearly a decade. Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come. Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 4% since January 2008.

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 36 Daily Yields, 10-Year U.S. T-Notes vs. Moody’s Seasoned AAAs, * *through 10/20/2011 Sources: Federal Reserve Board at and The spread between the two yields reflects confidence (or lack of it) in the economy’s prospects. A wider spread indicates worry; narrower = confidence. We saw a slump like this in March - August 2010

Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain: 1994–2011:Q2 1 Investment Gains Recovered Significantly in 2010 Due to Realized Capital Gains; The Financial Crisis Caused Investment Gains to Fall by 50% in Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. * 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. ($ Billions) Investment gains in 2010 were the best since

P/C Net Income After Taxes 1991–2011:H1 ($ Millions) 2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.3% 2009 ROAS 1 = 5.9% 2010 ROAS = 6.5% 2011:H1 ROAS = 1.7% P-C Industry 2011:H1 profits were down 71.6% to $4.8B vs. 2010:H1, due to high catastrophe losses and as non-cat underwriting results deteriorated * ROE figures are GAAP; 1 Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 2.3% ROAS for 2011:H1, 7.5% for 2010 and 7.4% for Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute

12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C 39 Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2011:Q2 Sources: ISO, A.M.Best. ($ Billions) 2007:Q3 Previous Peak Quarterly Surplus Changes Since 2007:Q3 Peak 09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%) 09:Q3: -$31.0B (-5.9%) 09:Q4: -$10.3B (-2.0%) 10:Q1: +$18.9B (+3.6%) 10:Q2: +$8.7B (+1.7%) 10:Q3: +$23.0B (+4.4%) 10:Q4: +$35.1B (+6.7%) 11:Q1: +$42.9B (+8.2%) 11:Q2: +37.3B (+7.1%) Surplus as of 6/30/11 fell 1% below its 3/31/11 $564.7B record high. Further declines are likely. *Includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business in early The Industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.78 of NPW—the strongest claims- paying status in its history.

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