Climate Change in Wisconsin Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission Feb. 4, 2010 D. Vimont, C. Kucharik, D. Lorenz, M. Notaro University of Wisconsin - Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin - Madison Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin - Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) University of Wisconsin, Madison

Thanks to: C. Kucharik (SAGE), K. Holman (CCR), S. Vavrus (CCR) Wisconsin State Climatology Office Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Wisconsin Focus on Energy EERD Program Climate Change in Wisconsin Climate Change in Wisconsin D. Vimont, C. Kucharik, D. Lorenz, M. Notaro University of Wisconsin - Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin - Madison Understanding Earth’s Past, Present, and Future Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin - Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) University of Wisconsin, Madison

Outline Global Climate Change The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate Data Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and ways to use the data Conclusions and Future Directions

Outline Global Climate Change The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate Data Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and ways to use the data Conclusions and Future Directions

Global Climate Change Greenhouse Gasses: “Trap” energy in lower atmosphere Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gasses: Increasing to levels we have never seen Charles Keeling

Global Climate Change Global Temperature: Has increased by ~0.7°C over the last 100yr. The rate of increase is “accelerating”.

IPCC WG1 FAQ 1.3, Fig. 1

Mitigation: Necessary to avoid dangerous climate change Adaptation: Climate change is inevitable; Adaptation needed to minimize impacts Future Global Temperature: Temperature will increase by about 1.6°C in the next 40yr, 2°-6°C by the end of the century. Global Climate Change

Outline Global Climate Change The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate Data Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and ways to use the data Conclusions and Future Directions

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts WICCI: Partnership between the UW Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, the Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups Goal: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions; evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities; and develop and recommend adaptation strategies…

WICCI as a Boundary Organization WICCI: Boundary organization. Working Groups organized around “Boundary Objects”.

WICCI Working Groups Water Resources Soil Conservation Agriculture Adaptation Plants & Natural Communities Central Sands Hydrology Forestry Coastal Communities Green Bay Wildlife Stormwater Coldwater Fish Milwaukee Human Health Wisconsin Climate

Outline Global Climate Change The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate Data Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and ways to use the data Conclusions and Future Directions

Global Climate Change Future Climate Change: How do we know what will happen? Global Climate Models Divide the world into boxes, solve equations that govern weather / climate on a discrete grid. Apply forcing based on a “storyline” of future emissions

Global Climate Change Moving from Global to Regional Problem: Models are meant to reliably simulate GLOBAL climate. What regional changes can we trust? How do we translate global change into a regional context? What physical phenomena are missing?

Global Climate Change Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts. WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy Thanks to D. Lorenz

Needs for Downscaled Data Characterize Uncertainty Uncertainty from: large-scale model physics, emissions scenario, transition from large to small scale, additional uncertainty (from subjective assessment) High resolution (spatial and temporal) 8-10km resolution, daily time scale Need to represent extremes Extreme precipitation is necessary for hydrology; extreme temperature for human health / forestry / others FLEXIBILITY!!! Numerous potential applications, so flexibility is needed!

Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature

Global Climate Change Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts. WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy Thanks to D. Lorenz

Downscaled Data (first order): Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios: 20c3m, sresb1, sresa1b, sresa2 Models: 15 climate models contributing daily data to the IPCC / CMIP3 model archive Realizations: 3 realizations per model to better resolve extreme events Time Periods: , , Total: 100Gb of data available, much more is possible (this will expand as more model data / needs emerges)

Outline Global Climate Change The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate Data Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and ways to use the data Conclusions and Future Directions

Annual Temperature Change Mean Temperature will warm by 4-9 o F by mid- century

Annual Temperature Change Probabilistic Approach: More useful for planning

Annual Temperature Change Winter Temperature will warm by 5-11 o F by mid- century

Annual Temperature Change Winter Temperature will warm by 5-11 o F by mid- century

Annual Temperature Change Summer Temperature will warm by 3-8 o F by mid-century

Annual Temperature Change Summer Temperature will warm by 3-8 o F by mid-century

>90° Days, and 90° Days, and <0° Nights

Intense Precipitation Events Intense precipitation events become more common in winter / spring

Intense Precipitation Events Intense precipitation events become more common in winter / spring

Snow (M. Notaro) Downscaled data are used to estimate other parameters of relevance to impact assessments (e.g. annual snowfall)

Snowfall changes – 2055 conditions Snowfall is reduced by 20-30% by mid- century. This translates to 30-50% decrease in midwinter snow depth % Change A2 Scenario: Snowfall Changes

Snowfall changes – 2055 conditions Snow season shortens by 1 to 1½ months

Ways to use the data: 1.Classic Risk Assessment Use actual probability distributions to identify Risk as the product of probability and consequence 2.Spatio-temporal Data Generate spatial data using a “weather generator” type noise pattern. 3. Historical Rescaling Rescale an existing time series from a present-day PDF to a future PDF.

Climate Change and Risk: Risk: Probability of an event occurring times its consequence Mitigation: Intervention to reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks Adaptation: Adjustment of a system to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences, associated with climate change

Actual Probability Distributions Adaption Climate SpaceProbability Present Climate Predicted Climate Impact threshold Climate Space Probability Risk Assessment: Identify threshold / response surface Define present day risk with present day probability distribution Compare future risk with future probability distribution Explore how adaptation strategies can impact risk Risk Assessment: Identify threshold / response surface Define present day risk with present day probability distribution Compare future risk with future probability distribution Explore how adaptation strategies can impact risk

Spatial and / or temporal data

Rescale a historical time series MaxT (e.g.)Probability Present Climate MaxT (e.g.) Probability Why to use this approach: You’ve already done some analysis with historical weather dataYou’ve already done some analysis with historical weather data Impact is “event-like”Impact is “event-like” Covariates are important (e.g. warm, wet, and windy on a given day)Covariates are important (e.g. warm, wet, and windy on a given day) Policy decisions can be compared to historical decisionsPolicy decisions can be compared to historical decisions

Outline Global Climate Change The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Motivation and Needs for Downscaled Climate Data Results: Climate Change in Wisconsin, and ways to use the data Conclusions and Future Directions

Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin Downscaling Climate over Wisconsin Downscaled projections of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature for Wisconsin have been completed. The downscaling methodology predicts the (daily) probability distribution for a specific station based on large scale inputs. The advantages of the downscaling technique include (a) it works well (b) interpolation of distribution parameters avoids bias in extremes or discrete events (c) uncertainty is characterized across various dimensions (d) the resulting data are very flexible

Conclusions: WICCI has available one of the most comprehensive and flexible (i.e. useful for assessing impacts of climate change) regionally downscaled climate data sets in the world. Major findings include: Wisconsin will warm by 4°-9°F by mid-21 st century Mean winter precipitation will increase by 0%-40% by mid-21 st century Extreme precipitation events will intensify by mid-21 st century, especially during winter, spring, and fall. Winter snowfall and snow cover will be significantly reduced by mid-21 st century.

Future Directions: 1.Temporal Sequencing (duration of drought, duration of extreme temperature events, etc.): Work is underway. Downscaled data looks reasonable. 2.Wind (EERD ): Important for: Energy, forestry, lake circulation, etc. Methodology: Extend existing Generalized Linear Model to a multivariate probability distribution. 3.Evapotranspiration (EERD ): Important for: lakes, hydrology, forestry, wildlife, lake biology (and health impacts), etc. Methodolgy: Use wind / precipitation / temperature results in a regional land surface model 4. Solar radiation / cloud cover (EERD ): This one will be tricky, and may not be reliable. But we won’t know until we try.

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts WICCI: Partnership between the UW Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, the Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups Goal: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions; evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities; and develop and recommend adaptation strategies…

Resources: Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts Climate Working Group Interactive Website UW Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies Center for Climatic Research Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Image Sources: Mauna Loa CO2 curve: Image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art, Charles Keeling Image: c/o Scripps Institution for Oceanography, Historical and future temperature change and Greenhouse Effect: IPCC WG1, Climate Model Schematic: June, 2008 Flood Event: Midwest Regional Climate Center,