Public Opinion Wilson Chapter 7

Pair and Share: Connect with someone sitting near you and talk about the public opinion polls you researched. Things to think about What are your thoughts about the sample size (too big? too small?) 2. What are your thoughts about the sampling error? Does that affect how you look at the poll? 3. Any other thoughts about the polls?

The Origins of Public Opinion and Politics 1.What does Richard Brookhiser argue might have been James Madison's most important contribution to politics? 2.How was public opinion viewed by early politicians, such as George Washington? 3.How did James Madison’s beliefs on the use of public opinion in politics differ from this view? 4.What do you think are the pros and cons of politicians paying close attention to public opinion? To what extent should public opinion affect politicians?

"According to the latest poll..." Supplement Reading Questions ●How do Politicians use polls? ●What are some ways poll’s can be distorted? ●What are some present day challenges to pollsters (people who carry out polls) face? ●Does public opinion (measured by polls on specific issues) reflect public policy? Polling Vocabulary and what it means... ● poll ● random sample ● sampling error ● exit polls

Checks on Public Opinion 1. Rep democracy 2. Federalism 3. Separation of Powers 4. Bill of Rights 5. Independent Judiciary 6. Pluralist theory “many factions”

How polling works Polling techniques For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, ensuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3. Polling firms can economize by using smaller than ideal samples but this reduces the reliability of the poll Low response rates harm reliability

How opinions differ Opinion saliency: some people care more about certain issues than other people do Opinion stability: the steadiness or volatility of opinion on an issue Opinion-policy congruence: the level of correspondence between government action and majority sentiment on an issue

What do you do for a living? Andrew Kohut Video 1a. Based on Kohut’s comments in the video above, what is the value of public-opinion polling as practiced by the Pew Research Center? CNN Video 2a. Do you think these small focus groups are an accurate means of measuring public opinion? Why or why not? 2b. Why do you think CNN wanted to show their television audience the focus group members’ opinions after the debates? Video: Poll Smoking - President's Approval The Daily Show with Jon Stewart 3a. In your opinion, how important are the approval ratings for a president? Do they affect how you view presidential policies and decisions? Explain your answer. 3b. What approval rating would you give the current president?

4. Do you agree with Professor Lewis that news organizations, rather than reflecting public opinion, use opinion polls to set agendas and create public opinion? Explain your answer. 5. Contrast the viewpoints expressed in the above video with Andrew Kohut’s comments found in the video segment at the top of the page. How would you characterize the main differences between the viewpoints of Andrew Kohut and Professor Justin Lewis?

Presidential Polls Visit the following website and pick one of the latest polls evaluating President Obama's job as President. Questions: How many people were polled? What were the results? (% Approval and % Disapproval) What was the sampling error?

Presidential Poll

Polling 1. Question Wording - invalid questions: too complicated or too simple, may be biased and tend to produce results too one-sided 2. Question Sequencing - determines context 3. Phantom Opinions - made-up responses 4. Interviewer-Respondent Interaction - race or gender of interviewer can affect results 5. Timing - most valid on day poll is taken

Measuring Public Opinion 1. The opinions of a large population, or universe - Measured based on interviews with a relatively small sample 2. Sampling - Must be representative of that population, or universe - Biased samples are not representative - Margin of error a. Related to sample size and bears on how poll results should be interpreted - Random sample a. Every member of the poll’s universe has just as much chance of being polled as any other member.

Political Knowledge and Attitudes 1. Knowledge and Interest: - Americans are poorly informed about politics and government. Most do not use terms: cons or lib. - Some groups are more informed than others. a. political elites “activists”: hold office, work for campaigns, lead interest groups/social movements, speak on issues. More active = more ideological consistent. They raise and frame political issues. Use terms cons and lib to describe themselves 2. Support for democratic principles: - Support of majority rule and minority rights in the abstract. - Opinions are mixed when it comes to specific applications of these concepts.

Forming Opinions 1. Do you prefer Coca-Cola or Pepsi? Coca-Cola: Pepsi: 2. What kind of house do you want to own?

Forming Opinions Which Question was easier to answer? Why? 1. Latent Opinions: opinion formed on the spot, when needed - mostly based on considerations (pieces of relevant info) usually not thorough answers - Influenced by: - Contradictory considerations: ie; abortion - protect life vs. womans right to choose - Events: ie: terrorist attacks - lead to increase worry of it happening again

How many figures can you identify by name in this picture?? (list them in column A)

How many figures can you identify by name in this picture? (list them in "B")

Calvin and Hobbes by Bill Watterson

Polling and Public Opinion worksheet

Voice of the People Video

Public Opinion Family What Factors?

Cleavages in Public Opinion With a partner read through supplement reading focusing on social class, race and ethnicity, and region. You can refer to your textbook page 160 also. Once you are finished write out short responses to the discussion questions and be prepared to share answers to each.

Income and Voting

Millennials PEW research Article

Public Opinion Translated to Politics

Gender Gap - PEW Research Article

Public Opinion Translated to Politics