New England Economic Partnership Ross Gittell NEEP, Vice President and Forecast Manager James R.Carter Professor University of New Hampshire.

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Presentation transcript:

New England Economic Partnership Ross Gittell NEEP, Vice President and Forecast Manager James R.Carter Professor University of New Hampshire

WHAT IS NEEP? yNEEP was founded in 1971 to enhance understanding of the six-state New England economy yA member-supported, non-profit organization yProviding objective economic analyses and forecasts. yBoard of directors and 7 forecast managers, all of whom serve NEEP on a volunteer basis, include some of New England's leading regional economists and economic development specialists. yNEEP member companies represent a broad range of industries and disciplines, and include financial institutions, utilities, insurance providers, government agencies, and academic institutions.

WHAT IS NEEP? yBi-annual forecasts of six state and regional economies. yAnnual metropolitan area forecasts of seven major metro areas in New England. yForecasts of state product, employment (by NAICS industry classification), housing, demographics, etc.. yQuarterly forecasts (4 years) and history. yWritten analysis and data...

Examples of the New England forecast, Fall 2003

New England regional economy yRegional economy expected to improve but grow at rate below US average yManufacturing will continue to decline, even more pronounced percentage decline in region than in nation yEven the fastest growing sectors in the regional economy (Education and Health Services, Professional and Business Services) are expected to grow at rates below US average growth in these sectors yNH expected to be strongest performing state yMassachusetts economy expected to improve and contribute to regional outlook end of 2003 and 2004

Gross Regional Product/Output yRegional economy is slowly improving…. yAnnualized growth rate expected to be 3.2 percent in 4th Q 2003 ….while modest, this is the highest growth rate since 3rd Q 2000, or in 3+ years yFirst quarter 2004 growth rate expected to match US at 4.1 percent yThen regional growth is expected to exceed US average growth and peak at 4.7 percent in 2nd Q 2004 yAfter that growth is expected to moderate and remain below 4 percent and below US average … much slower growth than late 1990s, of above 9 percent

The region is expected to have below the US average overall growth in economic output except for mid 2004

Employment Outlook growth returns, but …. yEmployment growth returned in 2nd Q of 2003 after 8 consecutive quarters of decline yEmployment growth expected to remain below 1 percent till 2 nd Q of 2004 yExpected to peak at 1.9 percent in 1st Q 2005 yThen decline to 1 percent per annum

Regional employment growth will lag output growth and lag and be below US employment growth

Highest percentage employment growth expected in Health & Education and Professional & Business Services. But below US growth in all sectors

NH Strongest Overall Economy in Region, followed by CT, RI, MA, VT and Maine

Total Employment Ave Annual Growth Only NH is expected to have employment growth at US average

Housing prices expected to moderate but not fall….

Detailed Examples of Forecast and Data available…. Massachusetts and Boston metro area