NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing 1:00PM, March 28, 2014

Key Message Prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain is expected Saturday and Saturday night with amounts from 1-3 inches. Significant rises will occur on many rivers and streams with minor to moderate flooding possible at some locations. Frozen ground, snowmelt where snow still exists, and dormant vegetation will result in enhanced runoff.

Timing of rain & flooding Rain will overspread the region from south to north between 8pm Friday and 8am Saturday. Rain may be heavy at times on Saturday and Saturday night. Lighter rain will taper off during Sunday. Across portions of New York and Northern/Central Pennsylvania, rain may change to snow before ending later Sunday.

Rain on the ground Rainfall for the 24 hour period ending at 8AM, Friday March 28

Current Stream Conditions Current streamflows generally range from below normal to normal across Pennsylvania and New York Current streamflows generally range from normal to above normal across portions of New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia.

Additional Rain 1.5 to 3 inches of Rain across portions of MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, southern and central NY Heaviest Rain Saturday and Saturday Night

Flash Flood Potential Less than an inch of rain in 3 hours is needed to cause Flash Flooding on some small streams and creeks.

Current River Forecasts Minor flooding possible at some locations on Sunday/Monday Slight risk of isolated moderate flooding if rainfall exceeds current forecasts. River forecasts will be updated every 6-12 hours.

Uncertainty Heaviest rainfall will likely form into narrow 10 to 30 mile wide bands. Exact location and movement of these bands cannot be accurately predicted, so location of heaviest rain is still highly uncertain. NWS will be closely monitoring developing storm and will issue updates throughout the weekend.

Remember Radar rainfall estimates may not be accurate where there is hail, changeover to snow, at the freezing level, etc../ MARFC graphics & info may not contain the entire flood threat. See info from your local weather forecast office for flash flooding, storm surge, river flooding in tidal reaches, etc..

Flood Safety Messages Turn Around Don’t Drown. Have a Plan, Lessen Your Loss. Monitor the NOAA Weather Radio, or your favorite news source for vital weather related information. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize flood dangers. Monitor for your river forecast. Look for frequent updates. Realize the uncertainty in river forecasts.

Need more info? Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office – Binghamton, NY – Blacksburg, VA – Mt Holly, NJ – State College, PA – New York City, NY – Sterling, VA – Wakefield, VA

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Next MARFC Briefing 1:00PM Saturday, March 29