Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Charlie Hargroves Executive Director, The Natural Edge Project Research Fellow, Griffith University “The cost of inaction: reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008

The 1971 Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO 2 as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory Source: Study of Man's Impact on Climate (SMIC), Stockholm, edited by Carroll L. Wilson and William H. Matthews

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950 Petit, J, et al (1999) Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature 399, pp

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Average Global Temperature Record (IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis - Summary for Policy Makers).

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950 Source: Petit, J, et al (1999) Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature 399, pp

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Global Warming Predictions from an average of 3 degree global average Source: Modelled using the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Stabilisation levels and probability ranges for temperature increases Source: Stern, N et al. (2006) The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (Figure 13.4)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008

Projected Australian temperature change Source: CSIRO (

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Projected Australian rainfall change Source: CSIRO (

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Climate change impacts on Australia Source: Summary from Preston, B.L. and Jones R.N. (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, CSIRO.

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 What about the financial costs?

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Gross Domestic Product vs. Estimated Environmental Costs (billions) for the United States of America from Source: Data sourced from Talberth, J et al (2006)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Estimates of the costs of global warming in the United States Source: Stockholm Environment Institute (2008) The Cost of Climate Change What We’ll Pay if Global Warming Continues Unchecked, Tuffs University.

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008

“The costs of action to the global economy would be roughly 1 percent of GDP, while the costs of inaction could be from 5-20 percent of GDP… The investment that takes place in the next years will have a profound effect on the climate in the second half of this century and the next.” The Stern Review, 2006

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Types of costs associated with climate change Source: OECD (2008) Costs of Inaction on Key Environmental Challenges, OECD.

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Early Action on Climate Change Costs Less Than Delayed Action Source: Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change (2006)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Conceptual and stylised representation of risks and benefits of transition strategies Source: TNEP (2008)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 How can we reduce costs?

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Conceptual and stylised representation of a decoupling graph Source: TNEP (2008)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Decoupling Progress in the Netherlands 1990 – 2005 Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2007)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Conceptual and stylised representation of waves of innovation Source: TNEP (2005)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 McKinsey Carbon Abatement Cost Curve, 1991 Source: Cited in MacNeill, J. (1991) Beyond Interdependence, Oxford University Press, New York.

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 McKinsey Australian Carbon Abatement Cost Curve, 2007 Source: McKinsey Consulting (2007) An Australian Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction, McKinsey Consulting.

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Queensland Energy Consumption comparisons Source: ABARE Data (2003)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008

Marginal and total costs of inaction Source: OECD (2008) Costs of Inaction on Key Environmental Challenges, OECD.

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 BAU emissions and stabilisation trajectories for ppm CO 2 e Source: Stern, N et al. (2006) The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (Figure 8.3)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Illustrative Emissions Paths to Stabilisation Source: Stern Review (2006), generated with the SiMCaP EQW model and averaged over multiple scenarios (Meinshausen et al. 2006)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Illustrative emissions paths to stabilise at 550ppm CO 2 e. Source: Stern, N. (2006)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Contraction and convergence for different countries with ‘head room’ for the rapidly developing economies: a stylised, illustrative scenario Source: Garnaut Interim Report (2008)

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 Credit: Jocke Berglund, Fotoflyget, Skandinavien

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 What is TNEP doing?

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008

“We have learned a lot of lessons since Natural Capitalism came out in 1999, that I think will make the next explications of this subject even more powerful and effective, so working with our Natural Project Edge collaborators I think shows great promise, these are very diligent and well informed people that I think are doing valuable work and we are looking forward to cooperating with them in ways that will help us all to learn faster and get more done better.” Amory Lovins “The authors of this book [have] the energy, insight and commitment to begin the discussion of what I call ‘the ultimate integration’; that is, integration of the concepts of competitiveness and Natural Capitalism.” Michael Fairbanks “Within these pages you will see that there is reason for robust hope, and as you read, we hope you will be inspired to contribute to this magnificent re- evolution of human enterprise” William McDonough

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 "I was thrilled and impressed reading this manual that features the integrated approach towards resource productivity and, ultimately, sustainability both at small and large scale.” Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker “The authors, in producing this introductory, technical, teaching material and these important examples, have provided a publication which can, and must, be widely used in our university and technical training institutions.” Barry J. Grear AO

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 "This Sustainable Energy Solutions Portfolio by The Natural Edge Project will help ensure all engineers and built environment professionals can rapidly update their skills and knowledge on renewable energy and energy efficiency practice.” Dr Mike Dennis ANU Engineering Department "The work of the Natural Edge project makes me feel optimistic. This team of four young engineers with an extraordinary set of global networks has produced a three- part bible on how to reduce your emissions. It's enormous, but don't be put off by the size. It's designed so that you only need to read the chapters that relate to your business." Alexandra De Blas, ABC Science Show

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008 "I commend the team from The Natural Edge Project and their partners for undertaking to develop a response to 'Our Common Future' to mark its 20th anniversary." Gro Harlem Brundtland “The Natural Edge Project is to be commended for tackling this vitally important issue and highlighting where in the world already communities, regions and nations are creating solutions to this great challenge of our time.” R.K. Pachauri

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008

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