TM. Buy low, Sell high… here’s how we try to do it. Mark Riefer President TM.

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TM. Buy low, Sell high… heres how we try to do it. Mark Riefer President TM.
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Presentation transcript:

TM

Buy low, Sell high… here’s how we try to do it. Mark Riefer President TM

“The Level Paths Tactical Allocation Strategy attempts to anticipate phases of the stock market cycle and position the portfolio accordingly. The Strategy simply takes the model we use for our individual stock portfolio and applies it to the economy and market as a whole.” TM

Large Cap Blend EQUITY STRATEGY Investment Approach Our investment strategy is based on the rationale that stock price generally follows the direction of company profitability. The model seeks to capitalize on the profit cycle of select industry leaders. The model combines principles of Value Style and Growth Style Investing to identify both the early and the mature phases of the profit cycle for the companies selected. TM

FALLINGRISING “Bad” Value Managers “Good” Value Managers “Bad” Growth Managers“Good” Growth Managers “Growth” Contrarians Positive Surprise Neglect Estimate Revision Negative Surprise Models EPS Momentum Estimate Revision Positive Surprise Models Earnings Event Earnings Expectations Life Cycle

1.Identify Phase in Economic Cycle 2.Identify Phase in Market Cycle 3.Attempt to anticipate the next Phase of the Market Cycle and Systematically Modify the Portfolio accordingly. The Level Paths Tactical Allocation Strategy ©

Phase 4 RECESSION TROUGH RECESSION TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION PEAK TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET DECLINE Minimum Stocks Maximum Stocks Phase 1 Economic Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Market Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Level Paths Management (All Stocks Portfolio) (All Stocks Portfolio) Phase 2 Economy Phase % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price in stock price and sharp rise and sharp rise in dividend in dividend yield. yield. - numerous earning earning misses and misses and lower to no lower to no guidance guidance60% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - many companies companies meeting or meeting or beating beating already already lowered lowered expectations expectations100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings75% Characterized by: - companies beating beating expectations expectations in an in an improving improving cycle cycle100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in decrease in rate of rate of earnings earnings increases increases75% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings 50%50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75%50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings75%75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100%75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings Economic Phases (We propose 4) ©

Market Level Paths Level Paths Management Management (All Stocks Portfolio) (All Stocks Portfolio) RECESSION TROUGH RECESSION TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION PEAK TROUGHEXPANSION RECESSION MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET TROUGH MARKET ADVANCE MARKET PEAK MARKET DECLINE Minimum Stocks Maximum Stocks Phase 1 Economic Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Economy 25-50% Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price in stock price and sharp rise and sharp rise in dividend in dividend yield. yield. - numerous earning earning misses and misses and lower to no lower to no guidance guidance60% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - many companies companies meeting or meeting or beating beating already already lowered lowered expectations expectations100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings75% Characterized by: - companies beating beating expectations expectations in an in an improving improving cycle cycle100% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings 50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in decrease in rate of rate of earnings earnings increases increases75% - depends on number of number of stocks with stocks with positive positive earnings earnings % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% % Characterized by: - sharp decline in stock price and sharp rise in dividend yield. - numerous earning misses and lower to no guidance60% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings50%75%50%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100%50% Characterized by: - many companies meeting or beating already lowered expectations100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100%75% Characterized by: - companies beating expectations in an improving cycle100% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75%50% Characterized by: - significant decrease in rate of earnings increases75% - depends on number of stocks with positive earnings Phase 4 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Economic Phases (We propose 4) Where are we now? © Where do we think we’re headed next? Please contact us for a complementary consultation to discuss how this management model might help your portfolio.

Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date and was obtained from sources known to be reliable. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of presentation and are subject to change. None of the graphs or charts contained in this presentation represents the performance achieved by any client of Level Paths Investment Advisers. They are designed to illustrate Level Paths’ tactical asset allocation strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance and results of your portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Economic factors, market conditions, and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio and there are no assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. Information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is limited to the dissemination of general information on products and services. This information should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Level Paths LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Missouri. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. TM