NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments John Gaynor Office of Weather and Air Quality Research And USWRP Interagency Program Office Silver Spring, MD

NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments Background Research applied to NOAA’s environmental forecasting and understanding mission. Research to improve forecasts of hazardous weather including hurricanes, tornados, heavy (flood producing) precipitation. Much of research under the USWRP (NOAA, NSF, NASA, DoD) directed toward forecast improvements in: –Hurricane landfall track and intensity –Hurricane inland precipitation –Precipitation leading to floods Effects of storm surges and high winds.

NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments Background (Cont.) Research and modeling leading to volcanic and wildfire plume forecasting. Seasonal and interannual forecasts of extreme weather events. Forecasts of geomagnetic storms.

NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments Severe Weather Public education and outreach from NSSL on tornado, lightning and severe storm safety. Severe winter California coastal storm and coastal flooding potential information and education to: –Emergency managers –Water managers –Fishing industry –Weather Service Forecast Offices –Media

NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments Hurricanes and Severe East Coast Storms Provision of short-term forecasts of hurricane surface winds at landfall and surface analysis soon after landfall for: –Emergency managers –Insurance industry –General public/media Informal public education and awareness campaign of hurricane threat (Florida). Research by Sea Grant on optimum beach and building design and construction to minimize storm surge or tide beach erosion and building damage. Partnering with state and local building authorities.

NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments Climate and Space Weather Advising western water managers on seasonal precipitation outlooks. Providing geomagnetic storm forecasts and forecast interpretation to vulnerable utility and communications companies.

NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments Needs NOAA Research needs assistance with interfacing and partnering with hazards practitioners to transition research results into the operations/service community.